What does the Werk Nick Rating System REALLY mean???

[TrueColours]

In real terms, what do high scores really and truly mean?

Just for fun, I just pulled the Werk ratings on my Shastan mare with some of the Windfield Farm stallions

Best of the Bests and Weather Warning were ordinary crosses, but then Mobil came in with an A++ (+853%) but the Dosage Profile was pretty ordinary - DP of 10, DI of 2.33 and CD of 0.60

Then my socks got blown off with the Whiskey Wisdom cross:
Werk of A++ (+7737%) !!!
But a very ordinary DP of 12, DI of 3.80 and CD of 0.92

So - what does this incredible +7737% number mean in real terms with this mating? She is a gorgeous big (solid 16.2hh) mare, unraced, that I intended to breed forever to Guaranteed Gold to get gorgeous, big palomino babies with lots of chrome. BUT ... from a pure commercial racing perspective if I opted to breed her to Whiskey Wisdom instead how desirable would this baby be at the sales???

And does this literally mean this baby is virtually assured of fabulous success at the track if handled and trained correctly?

Thanks as always!

[DDT]

Basically, these ratings are based on a sire line to sire line cross. I am guessing that the A++ rating results from the success of Wild Again crossed with Vice Regent line mares. Whiskey Wisdom shows 5 stakes winners from this cross which does not take into account how close or how far back the Wild Again/Vice Regent cross appears, it will always be 2nd generation for Whiskey Wisdom. The A++ rating and high percentage does not mean that the foal will be a winner, much less a stakes winner, or sell well at a sale. The rating does not consider the production of the mares that produced these 5 stakes winners, and if you take the time to look you will see that the dams in question were good producers to other sire lines, this could indicate that the success of these individuals has less to do with the cross and more to do with the superior production records of the mares in question.

The results also do not take into account the number of failures produced by this cross, again, maybe an indicataion that the success owes more to the individual mares rather than their tail male line.

As with any tool, it may or may not have its place in the selection process. At the very least, it points to past successful sire line crosses without regard to what generations are involved or the production records of the dams involved.

In my opinion, it does not offer any information that diligent research would uncover.

DDT

[TrueColours]

Thanks DDT!

I got this email back from the Werk people as well on this question:

Another word of caution: Extremely high variants are often the result of a small sireline population crossed with a small broodmare sireline population with which it has had success. This is a reflection of a smaller sample size and does not necessarily represent a mega-nick.

So there you go ... this mating does NOT mean a 7000++ chance of creating a mega racing superstar after all!!!

And here I got all excited at seeing those numbers ...

[brogers]

You might find this post by Alan Porter of interest

http://truenick.com/blog/2008/05/14/one ... /#more-219

[diomed]

Anyone would be a smarter breeder by listening to Alan Porter.
The guy knows his stuff.