Breeding my Gulch mare

[Equinometrics]

I claimed a 6yo mare named Aunt Dot Dot a few weeks ago with the intention of racing her some and then breeding her. She is by Gulch out of the Capote mare Aunt Dot. She is 6 of 41 lifetime and has earned $204k. She has three half-siblings by Distorted Humor. She is from the family of Chief's Crown and Winning Colors but does not have much black type up close.

I have no experience owning broodmares or racehorses but am an avid horseplayer. I have followed Aunt Dot Dot since she ran at Saratoga as a 2yo and felt I couldn't pass her up at $5k.

any advice?
thanks

[BargainBlueblood]

I've followed this mare for a while, too. She's very very nice. Weird that she has so little black type up close, because her not-so-distant family is solid, and she had a lot of talent. Are you breeding to sell commercially, or breeding to race the foal yourself? Are you thinking of a regional state-bred program, or breeding in Kentucky? Let us know...those factors will help folks give you useful advice!

[Bill from WA]

Hi

She is pretty closely related to the late Tribunal who was a leading sire here in Washington state before his untimely demise. A Deputy Minister line stallion might be worth a look for her. Nice claim (IMO).

Bill

[Equinometrics]

I've followed this mare for a while, too. She's very very nice. Weird that she has so little black type up close, because her not-so-distant family is solid, and she had a lot of talent. Are you breeding to sell commercially, or breeding to race the foal yourself? Are you thinking of a regional state-bred program, or breeding in Kentucky? Let us know...those factors will help folks give you useful advice!

Leaning toward selling commercially and thinking KY or PA bred. Probably want to go to a KY stallion.

[Rick]

I love your mare. With Capote in the pedigree, I like Include and Yes It's True in Kentucky. Another way to go woudl be to try to breed back to her family with Chief's Crown using a stallion like Concero. According to the updated GSV's.

Concerto 76.79
Yes it's True 72.32
Include 76.55

[LB]

Before you think about breeding the mare to sell the resulting foal commercially you might want to study the pages and the results of the just-finishing Keeneland September sale. The market is undergoing a pretty big correction and a mare without black type up close, even one from a very good family, is going to start with a strike against her when it comes time to sell.

Today's average price was $7,515, median $4,500. Average stud fee for the day is $10,000.
Yesterday's average was $11,258, median $8,000. Average stud fee: $10,000.

By the time the breeders who sold at those prices got done paying upkeep, vet bills, commissions to the consignors and to Keeneland, etc. they were probably $10-15,000 in the red. Just something to factor in when you're making your plans.

[springboro]

I have to agree with LB.... while a very solid family, this pedigree doesn't have the close up black type that the KY sales folks want. The current Keeneland sales bears that out with punishing consistency.

Now, that said, this is a winning Gulch mare who ran out more than $185K... you might find someone who likes that privately. I know people who care more about the mare's race record than distaff production.

Not me though... after carefully watching the sales online I have to seriously consider some of my mares' futures as broodmares for me. This may be that big cull time (as if I had huge numbers to start with!) to correct a few things.

At least I have the advantage of not having 22,000 other foals to compete with here in Indiana. I do, however, want to breed the best horses that I can.

[billl]

This is a risky move, but at the same time I feel this mare deserves some consideration. I feel that a horse like Noble Causeway might fit very well with her. But as some other posters mentioned, the market is not good, as it was reflected in the drop in of the median price in these last days.

[SemparQuel]

Anh here is the stallion for your mare:
BOB AND JOHN

Here are the pro's:
- Standing in KY
- Broadmare sire is Deputy Minister (advice of Bill from WA)
- The foal will be 3x3 Mr P (just not bad)
- The foal will be 4x4 on Too Bald, sex balanced
- Seattle Slew is also duplicated, and, of course, Northern Dancer and Roman

[Equinometrics]

The struggling thoroughbred market has an upside - stallion fees have fallen to reasonable levels, especially for unproven sires. If I breed Aunt Dot Dot this year and assuming she gets into foal than it is 2011 before a yearling would hit the sales. Given that the purse structure in racing is likely to get better despite declining wagering and the the economy will almost certainly be stronger, I'm optimistic.

[aardvark]

I like a hennessy son for this mare if searching for a successful cross.

[springboro]

The struggling thoroughbred market has an upside - stallion fees have fallen to reasonable levels, especially for unproven sires. If I breed Aunt Dot Dot this year and assuming she gets into foal than it is 2011 before a yearling would hit the sales. Given that the purse structure in racing is likely to get better despite declining wagering and the the economy will almost certainly be stronger, I'm optimistic.

I don't think I understand your logic on this one. If you're going to breed to sell, you have to be able to get about $10-15K to break even. Do the math and add it up... stud fee at even $5000 plus feeding, shots, farrier, sales prep. I still cringe when I see a KY foal sell for less than $5000, knowing that someone took a huge hit in the pocketbook.

Why would you breed her knowing that the chances of getting a foal that might sell for $15K and break even is slim. It's a losing venture, I think.

And yes, I did say that I doubt a foal from this mare would go for over $15,000. I wish that I had listened a little bit more carefully when I initially started sending horses to Keeneland to what I was being advised. But instead, I found someone who told me what I wanted to hear.

We all can offer our opinions... in the end, it's your decision.

[LB]

The struggling thoroughbred market has an upside - stallion fees have fallen to reasonable levels, especially for unproven sires. If I breed Aunt Dot Dot this year and assuming she gets into foal than it is 2011 before a yearling would hit the sales. Given that the purse structure in racing is likely to get better despite declining wagering and the the economy will almost certainly be stronger, I'm optimistic.

I, too, am a little baffled by your post.

Since 2009 stud fees have yet to be announced there's no way to know whether they have fallen at all, much less to "reasonable levels". If you're referring to the fact that you can usually breed to an unproven stallion in his 3rd or 4th year at a discount, bear in mind that that stallion will have 3 and 4YOs running by the time you go to sell your yearling. Unless the stallion's offspring are burning up the track, the value of your discounted stud fee will be $0 as buyers will have already moved on to support the next hot prospect.

I would like to think that the purse structure in racing is likely to improve but right this moment, I'm not counting on it. I'd love to know what indicators make you think that's going to happen because I'd be delighted to be able to share your optimism.

I'm really not trying to be a wet blanket, I just want you to make the decision to spend money on a KY stud fee with your eyes wide open. Your mare sounds like a wonderful prospect for breeding foals to race, but you may have a harder time at the sales than you're envisioning.

[CS]

I think that in today's market there are many more factors than breeding to race vs. breeding to sell. It also involves how many years of production you are looking to get from the mare before you sell her. Mating selections should be very different if you are looking to build her produce record for her value many years down the road as a foundation broodmare as opposed to getting as much $ out of breeding her and selling her within 3-5 years.

Here are a few thoughts:

1) You claimed this mare for $5,000. Unless you got her though a 5 way shake she is not valuable as a commercial breed-to-sell mare. There are many people who make it their job to claim broodmare prospects this time of year. Be assured that the very sophisticated marketplace did not overlook the mare - she was intentionally passed over. This is not to say she is worthless, just that she is not commercial in KY.

2) Noting the above, she is better off in a regional market that will value her race record. Drop the foal in PA (or another great regional program).

3) If you are merely breeding her to get the most $ possible for the first few foals (i.e. - she will be sold within a few years) go to the most popular and attractive sire you can. However, I would not put more than $7,500 cash into this stud fee. Better yet - get a foal share, Darley deal, or Darby Dan's Profit Protection - no $ out of pocket for stud fees at all. You may be able to get a foal share on a 3rd or 4th year stallion that will hit. It's a gamble, but it worked well for those who took a chance on Street Cry, Jo'berg, etc.

Keep in mind that the yearling will be in the last few books of any sale. Most of the horses in these books are purchased at the back of the ring. In these books looks are first, sire second, and the "sensibility" of the mating is well down the list. Don't get cute looking for inbreeding to a female family 5 generations back. You are not making the mare - you are breeding for a beauty contest. So more than looking at how pretty the mating will be on paper, think about how pretty the yearling will be in person. Pay close attention to the mare's strengths and weaknesses and get a stallion that will add to the overall attractiveness and size of the foal.

4) If you are trying to make the mare and/or have the desire to race the foal if it does not sell then you will be better off choosing a proven racehorse producer. Here is where you would look at the inbreeding/linebreeding, etc as well as the production stats of the stallion. You will also have to pay close attention to the ratio of the stud fee to the sales price, as the affordable stallions which are proven often have low sales figures.

5) Don't invest more in the foal than you can afford to lose. As others have said you will have at least $15K invested in it before it sells. Even with the best, most well planned mating, ugly can happen. Just look at hip 5122 - well planned mating, absolutely gorgeous colt - except for the very severe swayback...

6) Take her off the track early and give her time to let down. It is critical that she have an early foal - more marketable. Don't wait to stop racing her until January. Take her off the track sooner rather than later and allow her body to start cycling naturally.

Sorry - that was a bit of a novella. JMHO of course!

[madelyn]

CS, very, very good advice.

Please tell me more about the Darby Dan Profit Protection program!