hypomating conflict

[kybred]

I receive conflicting information from enicks vs G1 goldmine hypo-mating.
For example G1 reports a 20/20 match (superior), while enicks gives it a grade of C. Are one of these sites better than the other?
I would like to poll the breeders and others with such knowledge:
What information is most important in determining the appropriate stallion for your mare?

[docjocoy]

At the risk of looking like a complete idiot, what is the "20/20" superior match on Goldmine that you are referring to? I have had technical problems with Goldmine, although I really like the program. Part of the problem is that some of the info falls off my computer screen, so can you just describe where the "20/20 match is located?
Thanks.

[Patuxet]

I also often find considerable variances between Werk's E-Nicks and True Nicks. The latter system seems to cast a wider net, pulling in more successful overseas crosses.

[kybred]

docjocoy, according to the G1 Stallion Match:
A 20/20 mating occurs when a pattern has two or more Graded Stakes Winners with CSI values above 20 (see below). This indicates that this pedigree is exceptional as there are at least two superior horses with a very similar pattern. In most cases the stud farm will offer special incentives for the breeder to send their mare to the selected stallion.
CSI or Common Similarity Index is a measure of how close the pedigree of the Graded Stakes Winner matches the hypo-mating. In general, values above 18 indicate a strong similarity. As a rule of thumb, if the results list shows 4 or more horses with CSI of 18 or above, it is usually a good mating. If it shows 2 or more horses with CSI above 20, it is usually an exceptional mating.
Sounds pretty good! How do I know it's not some clever marketing scheme? As I stated earlier, the hypo-mating on this site is "superior"; on the enicks site, the hypothetical foal is graded "C". Breeding Thoroughbreds is new to me, so this is confusing. Both sites profess to measure the success a particular sire or sireline has had with a specific broodmare sire or sireline. How can the subsequent variable differ so greatly? I have done a significant amount of reading, in an effort to educate myself. In fact, this forum has directed me to some exceptional reading material, and has indirectly affected my selection of broodmares. MANY THANKS!
I will attempt to gather further insight by visiting the breeding sheds and speaking to the managers.
Is there anything else I can be doing, to assist in selecting the best stallion? What method do you use to select the appropriate stallion?
Next stop - truenicks

[docjocoy]

As a rule of thumb, if the results list shows 4 or more horses with CSI of 18 or above, it is usually a good mating. If it shows 2 or more horses with CSI above 20, it is usually an exceptional mating.

Ok, got it, didn't read the fine print, and I use that feature all the time. But G1 and the other nicking services (enicks & truenicks) aren't quite the same. G1 will give you a pedigree with the contributions of all the horses in a 5X, both male and female, sireside and damside. It's very graphic, and you can look to see if the components of the particular pedigree are meaningful to what you are looking for. It has it's drawbacks in that not all stallions are listed and you can't get at the ones that aren't just by paying more money, but you can jiggle around a bit with similarly bred stallions.
The nicking services only match sirelines. So what G1 might think is a great match with 2 horses at "above 20," enicks or true nicks might rate as a "C" if not enough graded stakes-winning matches were found for the two sirelines involved.
Since you are using all three services they are all useful in their own way. They can give you insights as to what might work. But I think looking at the individual stallion is more important, because the grades for the stallions don't take into account the individual stallion's own stats. Full brothers, one being great and the other being awful, both will produce the same "nicks" or G1 CSI.
Also, I like the "pedigree search" feature on G1 to see how certain crosses have worked historically. That feature, combined with their VGS feature, is very useful.
Also keep in mind that none of these ratings are written in stone, they are constantly changing as new stakeswinners are added into the mix. I had a cross that I was looking at a few months ago that I liked because I really liked the stallion, but the cross was a "D." Three months later it was miraculously an "A." I always assumed it was because one of the stallion's progeny hit big (it did) but his farm also was recently added to their client list, so it did give me pause.
I'd also take a look at the conduit mare profiles for a prospective foal, another useful tool in planning a mating.
Good luck!