Pedigree Query

Does anybody have G1 Pedigree Software to see what works best for a Theatrical Mare ("Variety")? She is about to drop a foal by Kipling, but I haven't been too successful with my own picks so far!

Not much help I'm afraid. ND about 50%, Mr. P about 45%, Hail to Reason about 27%. The highest VGS was with Mr. P about 1.75 compared to HTR of 1.4 and to ND 1.15. No clear cut pattern that I could find.

The Slew line would be a very good cross. You can also go to the Lanes End site and experiment with the Goldmine search.

Goodness, this mare is screaming for a turf stallion. Nureyev AND Never Bend AND Hawaii? That's a pedigree for long and on the lawn, and I see from the horses you've bred her to, none of them REALLY capitalize on that.

Without knowing your budget, in no particular order:

1. El Prado sons Artie Schiller and Senor Swinger. Both have their advantages and disadvantages, and both share the big disadvantage of being young and unproven. Artie Schiller has a better female family, better race record, and more sales potential should you need to sell for any reason. Senor Swinger's race record is not at all shabby, is a nice big lad should you need to add size to your mare, and is in Pennsylvania so you can take advantage of their statebred program.

In principle I like Kitten's Joy but not at $40,000.

2. Sky Classic. Will get you a solid ham-and-eggs turf horse with the potential of getting you a nice one. He has done really well with Afleet mares--having him as her 2nd bms shouldn't hurt. He'll also get you an excellent chaser.

fastappy wrote:The Slew line would be a very good cross. You can also go to the Lanes End site and experiment with the Goldmine search.

I don't think the Goldmine search works quite as well as one might guess. Just for kicks I ran Variety and Stephen Got Even on Lane's End and also Variety and Sky Classic at Pin Oak. In both instances I got horses who were only tangentially related (e.g. Seattle Slew over a Mr P-son-line mare). Far better to download the free version and play around, I think.

kimberley mine wrote:Goodness, this mare is screaming for a turf stallion. Nureyev AND Never Bend AND Hawaii? That's a pedigree for long and on the lawn, and I see from the horses you've bred her to, none of them REALLY capitalize on that.

Without knowing your budget, in no particular order:

1. El Prado sons Artie Schiller and Senor Swinger. Both have their advantages and disadvantages, and both share the big disadvantage of being young and unproven. Artie Schiller has a better female family, better race record, and more sales potential should you need to sell for any reason. Senor Swinger's race record is not at all shabby, is a nice big lad should you need to add size to your mare, and is in Pennsylvania so you can take advantage of their statebred program.

In principle I like Kitten's Joy but not at $40,000.

2. Sky Classic. Will get you a solid ham-and-eggs turf horse with the potential of getting you a nice one. He has done really well with Afleet mares--having him as her 2nd bms shouldn't hurt. He'll also get you an excellent chaser.

Thanks Kimberley. I do like the Artie Sciller match up. But not sure about Sky Classic. Nijinsky and his sons have never produced much on the Nureyev cross.

The mare is just over 16 hands high, so I don't need much more height!!

I have tried the Mr. Prospector line a couple of times already. I am hoping the Kipling foal will be decent.

No worries re: Sky Classic. For that, I was looking less at the pedigree itself (Nijinsky/Nureyev) and more the possibility of a type-to-type mating.

It's kind of unfortunate for Variety that most of the budget-priced turf stallions are either completely unproven (El Prado sons, Purim), exported (With Approval, Running Stag), dead (Runaway Groom, Cryptoclearance), or not really suitable pedigree-wise (Storm Cats in general, Mr P sons).

Thunder Gulch has done decently well with Theatrical mares, including a Japanese Gr-1 winner, an american turf mare who ran out over half a million, and a GB-bred who ran out over $100k (which is impressive given the relatively low purses in the UK). Unfortunately he's incredibly hit-or-miss as a sire, with dismally low median earnings per runner.

Stroll...he's gotten some nice horses with limited opportunities but he leaves me cold with your mare. His best runners are out of deceptively good mares...not necessarily world-beaters or major stakes producers, but honest running horses from honest running families. His numbers look like he's moving up his mares in general, but I don't think he's actually moving up THOSE mares, if that makes any sense.

Lewis Michael is priced well and the pedigree/racing aptitude match is good, but again, completely unproven and given Three Chimneys track record with freshman sires I wouldn't touch him with a bargepole. Also, I really hope he's not as butt-high in real life as he looks in his conformation photo.

Purim...another reasonably priced horse who could run, but again unproven. Pedigree-wise it's hard to say how he'd go. Dynaformer has a couple of knockouts from Nureyev-line mares, but if you look a bit closer it's more incidental than causal (e.g. Rainbow View's second dam is by Lord At War), and the Mr P strains that he does best with are the stamina/classic types like Seeking the Gold and Kingmambo, not sprinters like Afleet (Variety's source of Mr P). On his damline, there's no evidence of either a good cross or a poor cross. This could be a useful type-to-type match, but since he's not proven it's very difficult to recommend.

Hat Trick has speed on the grass and beat a bunch of really nice horses in his Hong Kong Mile win. Still unproven, though, on a bubble year, and on paper I don't see anything eye-popping to recommend him.

Which leads me back to Artie Schiller and Senor Swinger. Of the two I think Artie is the better sire prospect, BUT the potential financial upside of having a PA-sired PA bred in Senor Swinger might be more to your benefit. There's also Borrego at $10k, but he doesn't have either the grass peformance or the grassy bottom line I think Variety needs.

For what its worth, I would look at Borrego. I saw him this fall and was very impressed. Sadlers Wells seems to work well with Nuryev and Riverman and your mare has both. Linebreeding to Special and Lalun looks interesting.

I really, really enjoy Kimberley Mine's comments. One not mentioned so far would be Arch. Not as hot as he once was but still a value.
Interesting pedigree returns much of what Variety has:

http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.php? ... m=VARIETY6

Unusual Heat

Candy Ride might work well with Variety.

G1 Stallion match sponsored by Winstar for Supersaver gives a 20/20 mating - lots to like.

http://www.g1stallionmatch.com/g1stalli ... internal=1

Maria's Mon also the sire of Monarchos - derby winner not getting a lot of love lately but still can sire a decent horse.

jm

Thanks jm. That mating does look interesting. I have decided to go with Thunder Gulch this year. I got a decent price and, although he is getting on, the match works well on paper.

The mare has a Pleasnt Tap 4yo colt (Tippety Tap Tap) working well and looking for a second MSW race at about a mile on Turf at Santa Anita. There is nothing in the third Condition Book but we are hoping there will be someting in the next one. He worked 4f in 48:20 on the dirt at SA on Friday. The Mare has a very immature 2yo filly by Action This Day, and a yearling by Kipling.

I hope it works for you!

kimberley mine wrote:

fastappy wrote:The Slew line would be a very good cross. You can also go to the Lanes End site and experiment with the Goldmine search.

I don't think the Goldmine search works quite as well as one might guess. Just for kicks I ran Variety and Stephen Got Even on Lane's End and also Variety and Sky Classic at Pin Oak. In both instances I got horses who were only tangentially related (e.g. Seattle Slew over a Mr P-son-line mare). Far better to download the free version and play around, I think.

http://www.g1stallionmatch.com/g1stalli ... internal=1

I just happen to look at this Theatrical mare tread today (again) and tried it on the Lanes End G1, and it come back as 20/20 match, which they give incentives on Stephen Got Even x Movie Star R. N. (Theatrical). Not trying to agrue, but it would seem to be a good match beside the fact the mare might not have any Slew.

Are you saying the match is not as significant as G1 purports it (practically speaking)? I'm personally not a big fan of computerized nicking myself, and though G1 seems to be a better computerized tool.