Hi Austique,
Limehouse is a heavily, even severely inbred stallion prospect. It's the direction that the commercial breeders are taking because they literally can't cram enough Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector blood into their foals.
If
Stevie Wonderboy were to go to the shed right now his fee would be higher than his sires'. The pedigree technique used to breed him is
line duplication but it’s nearly to an extreme with Weekend Surprise 3x3, both sire and dam have dam sires from the Turn-To line and their bottom lines both bring in Mahmoud, Princequillo and Teddy. Effectively they mated 2 horses that were nearly identical in pedigree content – with stunning success.
In 2005, 48.5% of the foals sold at the Keeneland September Yearling sale were inbred 4x4 or closer, a staggering figure up from about 28% just a few years ago.
The simple fact is that outcrosses outperform inbreeding on the track and have for many years. When there was a smaller gene pool, breeders like Marcel Broussac would outcross and then inbreed in the next generation. That was a solid technique at the time and though the sheer numbers of thoroughbreds born in the last 30 years should offer more diversity the breeder's are choosing to go with blood that is certain to sell.
The Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer sire lines have evolved into distinct strains, (and Turn-To through Halo and Roberto) meaning that sons have established lines that are significantly different from each other so that they bring different characteristics to a mating even if it's with the same source blood.
At least in the case of Limehouse there's a solid
bracket pattern that's proven successful (usually in the 4th generation, not 3rd) of Mr. Prospector sire tail/dam tail line bracketing Northern Dancer on sire dam line and dam sire line.
The most dynamic catalyst in creating impact stallions is
new blood. The Phalaris sire lines domination of the past 40 years are the result of Teddy blood being introduced and reintroduced in succeeding generations, first in Tom Fool, then Raise A Native, then the sons of Northern Dancer and finally Mr. Prospector (who has Teddy 4 x 5 x 7). It's not that Teddy blood wasn't introduced to Phalaris line stallions before Tom Fool - using it simply wasn't successful in creating impact sires.
Both Mr. Prospector and Turn-To sire’s lines have had a similar reaction to Hyperion blood - few impacting sires. Best Turn (earlier) and Dynaformer (recently) are notable exceptions and like Tom Fool’s sire line (the earliest with new Teddy blood) Best Turn’s line is less potent than later impact sires of this new blood. Take a look at the pedigrees of Turn-To line stallions (not the sons of Halo or exceptions noted) and Hyperion isn’t present.
New blood is now affecting the Turn-To sire line, through Halo, as evidenced by his most impacting sons. Sunday Silence (5 x 6), Southern Halo, Saint Ballado and Devil's Bag all have Hyperion as new blood and they are successful. This also implies that their sons will need additional Hyperion to have the potential to be impacting sires (Saint Liam has 2 additional strains of Hyperion through his dam - good balanced). I hypothesize that Sunday Silence’s extreme success in Japan is due to his 2 strains of Hyperion (rather than just 1) that are more compatible with the Japanese mare base than they would have been with the North American mares. Technically this is an overload (not extreme) that has partially subverted Sunday Silence and it may hinder his ability to sire impacting stallions, just as Alydar and Affirmed did not become sire of sires because (partly) of an overload of Teddy blood. Mr. Prospector line sires have a huge tolerance for Teddy blood, but Raise A Native less so.
Please keep in mind that I’m discussing the creation of impact sires and how sire line dominance is maintained. There have been many quality runners (though fewer than the average) that have
new blood, but until the
herd is ready for it, there are no impact sires using that blood. Nature rules and they are
Natures’ rules.
For a generation or more, Northern Dancer has been a
packager of Hyperion blood, making it useful to sire lines that otherwise won’t have much success with it. It’s also the reason that the incredible Northern Dancer, sire of sires, is a
failed dam sire of sires. It’s not coincidental that Secretariat, devoid of Hyperion, is the great dam sire of sires. It’s also not coincidental that Mr. Prospector, a great sire of sires, is an impacting dam sire of sires, precisely because he lacks Hyperion.
I feel that breeders too often assume that
inherited affinities exist, where a sire (or blood) that worked in one generation is used in the next. Statistically, inherited affinities are only available in about 30% of matings. The flip side is that while Northern Dancer, because of his Hyperion, has not been the impacting dam sire of sires that he was expected to be, we shouldn’t believe that his sons won’t be. The
blood needs of the herd change over time and Hyperion delivered by Northern Dancer himself is not Hyperion blood delivered by Dixieland Band and El Gran Senor (two of the most successful packagers of Hyperion). Humans and Nature meet in their need for horses to have speed but Nature demands it for survival and despite our efforts she will have her way. The Icecapade line, especially through Wild Again, readily accept Hyperion and packae it but not as well as Northern Dancer's line.
Turn-To line
HAD been resilient in it’s denial of Hyperion in their best sires but clearly, as expressed by the best sons of Halo, this is changing. Hyperion is poised to be the next Teddy and perhaps the most important blood to follow in the examination of potentially impacting sires over the coming years.
I didn't say how I feel Limehouse will do and frankly I didn't do a complete analysis on him once I saw his pedigree. He was sound enough and consistent so the negative influences associated (mostly with Mr. Prospector) didn't seem to affect him.
Gone West has a single strain of Hyperion as new blood (pattern correct) and Grand Slam has 4 strains returned through his dam, Bright Candles (overload). Limehouse has 6 additional strains of Hyperion returned through his dam (possible overload). Simply by pattern analysis Limehouse has acquired 11 strains of Hyperion in 3 generations and while this can be an overload, it may not be. Mr. Prospector line could accept as much or more Teddy in the past. Generally more strains of new blood can be reintroduced in suceeding generations.
If Limehouse is now overloaded with Hyperion it won’t prevent him from being a successful sire but we’ll know that he is overloaded if his best runners are fillies, just as you see in Dynaformer who has Hyperion as new blood 5x5 (overload for first generation new blood) and is considered a filly sire (subverted). Dynaformer does get some quality sons, but I don’t anticipate impact sires from him and he has none to date.
My problem with Limehouse is the difficulty in creating matings because of his pedigree. If I felt that he was a compelling choice I would make the effort. The real question for Meg should be if Limehouse foals will have commercial appeal and I think that they will. Once his foals run we’ll get a good idea of how the Mr. Prospector line is being affected by the ‘new’ Hyperion blood and its’ return in Limehouses’ sire line.
Neither Limehouse nor Eddington will have racing foals so their commercial appeal will be high in their first crop. Meg’s mares are both black-typed and proven producers so breeding them to new stallions isn’t a problem and they should be commercially accepted. Whether Limehouse has been subverted (probably not capable of siring impact sons) with too much Hyperion he can still be a fine sire as Dynaformer proves.
Just a note, In Reality and Seattle Slew are both free of Hyperion too. Amazing how this global influencing stallion wasn’t represented in the pedigrees of so many top sire lines even 70 years after his birth.
(That was a mouthful).
Regards,
Pete
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