Beginner - Please help with my stallion selection

[topley]

Hi. New to the board but very grateful that I have found it. Seems like a lot of knowledge and experience here.

Anyway I am looking for some stallion selection advice for my mare. A little info on my mare, Citidancer mare out of stakes winning Proud Truth mare. She is 4 years old, injured while in training as a two year old. I bred her to Parker's Storm Cat last year mostly based off of a A++ nick rating. Again, I am new to this but she appears to be very athletic to me and I have been told by others who know more than I that she is and has good conformation. The only critique that I have heard consistently is that she is slightly short-bodied. She is about 15.3.

We are breeding to sell. More than likely at the Fasig Tipton Midatlantic Fall yearling sale. Not opposed to Kentucky just don't know my way around there yet. We are open to spending a little more on the stud fee this year. Ideally about $7,500 but we could stretch out to $15K for the right match.

I would really appreciate your thoughts and any advice you might be kind enought to offer.

Thanks in advance.

[topley]

Just to finish off my post. Considering Lion Hearted, Oratory and Domestic Dispute in no particular order. Wouldn't mind considering a stallion that is a little more established from a sales point of view.

[topley]

Just wanted to add that my mare is in the database, her name is Nicoles Dancer.

Thanks again for any input you might have I would really appreciate it.

[kimberley mine]

In terms of which stallion would get you a RUNNER, I have two words and one answer for you and that is Pleasant Tap (Lanes End, $10,000). Dixieland Band + Pleasant Colony (in various combinations) has been repeatedly successful with the following successful runners:

Bowmans Band (Dixieland Band over Pleasant Colony)
Colony Band (Dixieland Band over Pleasant Colony)
Cherokees Boy (Citidancer over Cherokee Colony)
Urbane (Citidancer over Pleasant Colony)
(note: Cherokees Boy and Urbane are Citidancer's best offspring)
Sapphire and Silk (Pleasant Tap over Dixieland Band)
Pleasant Chimes (Pleasant Tap over Dixieland Band), rest of her dam's family is completely different from Sapphire and Silk's family

In addition, Pleasant Tap sired the Gr-1 winner Tap to Music, whose dam Nuryette is by Nureyev out of a Tentam mare. Nureyev is by Northern Dancer out of a mare whose sire is from the Hyperion sireline, forming the same cross as that of Dixieland Band. Nuryette was beautifully bred and an exceptional producer, but it is notable that her best foal (by about $400k earnings) was by Pleasant Tap. Tentam is Citidancer's broodmare sire, so Pleasant Tap over Nicole's Dancer would be on a similar cross as Tap to Music.

Okay, that's the good stuff. Now for the bad stuff. In Kentucky, a good-looking Pleasant Tap might sell for twice his fee. That is just about enough to break even. None of the Pleasant Taps at the October sale at Timonium last year sold---3 RNA'd and one was out. The foal will probably sell better in Kentucky, or perhaps New York, because Pleasant Taps generally need at least a mile to get up and moving. Maryland has some route races, but Pennsylvania has next to none and Virginia really only runs routes on the lawn.

[topley]

Thanks Kimberley, I really appreciate the input.

As I said in my original post we are breeding to sell at this point. Hopefully in the future we will do some of both. That said ideally we'd like to produce a foal that will sell well and then run well.

Maybe I could take her to Pleasantly Perfect and make both of us happy...

To a newbie like me seems a little odd that breeding to sell and breeding to run would be mutually exclusive. Shouldn't the ones that sell be the ones with the best chance to run? Although I am starting to understand the intrincacies that make the difference...

Question for you, I noticed in the examples you gave that Pleasant Colony was on the female side on the majority of them. Would it make a difference to reverse it or is it the cross that matters?

Thanks again. Any opinions on the stallions I offered as suggestions?

Ed

[kimberley mine]

To a newbie like me seems a little odd that breeding to sell and breeding to run would be mutually exclusive. Shouldn't the ones that sell be the ones with the best chance to run? Although I am starting to understand the intrincacies that make the difference...

The yearling sales market wants three things consistently and various other things from time to time. It consistently wants (a) large yearlings with (b) good conformation and (c) an "acceptable" pedigree. Presently an acceptable pedigree may mean either that the runner will mature early with a good chance of winning/stakes at 2, or that the runner is from a young sire who may be the next Storm Cat and the buyers want to have a crack at the next big thing. Generally the pedigrees of the first category are already known (Storm Cats, Mr Ps, etc), the proven sires that have repeated juvenile success tend to be very pricey. The second category are all based on chasing a dream.

With respect to Pleasantly Perfect--on paper that is a nice cross, not as nice as Pleasant Tap for reasons I'll outline below, but your goal in this is to make a profit. Your mare is from a stakes-producing family, but not a strong enough stakes producing family to get a lot of attention in Kentucky on a $40,000 fee. You might cover the stud fee, or the foal might RNA. In Maryland, the foal will almost certainly not make a profit for you (in the $55-60k range). Based on that alone, he's a pass. Although a nice pass.

Question for you, I noticed in the examples you gave that Pleasant Colony was on the female side on the majority of them. Would it make a difference to reverse it or is it the cross that matters?

Yes, it does make a difference. In another thread, Pete and KAL discuss and debate whether Seattle Slew plus Mr P is a better match than Slew's son AP Indy and Mr P. It's worth a read. Having a pair of sons of the big-name stallions, rather than the stallions themselves, doesn't always work but in this case I think it will and here is why.

With respect to Pleasant Colony, Dixieland Band, Pleasant Tap, and Citidancer there are a couple of things going on. PC over DB was tried only 3 times, while DB over PC was tried 20 times with 19 individual mares. In this case, I think it was a numbers game. So far as Pleasant Tap and Citidander: Usually, looking for an inherited affinity or "nick" between a stallion and a son doesn't work as expected, and a reverse affinity between a sireline and another sireline (e.g. PC over DB vs. DB over PC) REALLY doesn't work as expected. While a breeder might try it, there is no guarantee for success just because it worked the other way around. But Pleasant Tap, against all odds, proved himself to be VERY useful with Dixieland Band mares.

Of all the well-known Pleasant Colony sons at stud today, only Pleasant Tap is free of Northern Dancer. Pleasantly Perfect, Forbidden Apple, Behrens, and Colonial Colony ALL have a son strain of Northern Dancer within five generations. Pleasant Tap lacks that key strain, and when mares with a son strain of Northern Dancer are sent to him, the resulting foals perform WAY better than average. A quick peek at the broodmare sires of his top runners yields Northern Dancer, Nijinsky, Soverign Dancer, Dayjur, Polish Navy, Nureyev, and Dixieland Band. At least half of the strong runners whose first broodmare sires are not ND-line have a 2nd or even 3rd broodmare sire who is ND-line. It is reasonable to assume that Citidancer, as a direct tail-male to ND, would work with Pleasant Tap. This cross does not appear to have been tried.

But wait, there's more! Remember Nureyette, the Nureyev over Tentam mare? She is bred on an extremely close cross to Citidancer. Nureyev is Northern Dancer over a Forli (Hyperion-line) mare, while Dixieland Band is Northern Dancer over Traffic Judge (Hyperion via Alibhai). Citidancer and Nureyette are not quite but VERY close to what I would define as genetic siblings, with two grandparents being the same. Given that bit of knowledge, and that one of Pleasant Tap's best runners is out of a mare that is nearly a sibling to Citidancer, it is even more reason to suspect that Pleasant Tap over Citidancer will be successful.

Whew! That was a rather long-winded response, but I hope it answered your question on sires and inherited "nicks."

Thanks again. Any opinions on the stallions I offered as suggestions?

I'll try to answer this one later.

[topley]

Thanks Kimberley.

Regarding your comments on the yearling market seems like I may need a little help in getting a yearling with size. So maybe I should consider a larger stallion but one that will fit conformation wise.

I was just fooling around with the Pleasantly Perfect comment. He is out of our range for now and I do understand that she hasn't earned taht level of breeding yet. She is part of a fairly live family so maybe some day we'll get there. She has a nice half-sister out of Not for Love that is a three year old this year and looks pretty promising, Elirose.

Thanks for answering my question on the cross. Makes sense. You answered all my questions.

What do you think of the sales potential of the prospective Pleasant Tap foal? Wondering if others will see what you see in the foal

Looking forward to your response on the other potential matches...

Thanks

[kimberley mine]

Of Lion Hearted, Oratory, and Domestic Dispute, all three should be commercial next year. Their pedigrees all look decent on paper with Nicole's Dancer--no big standouts, but no big liabilities either. With their breeding and race records, so long as their foals have four legs and two ears Oratory and Domestic Dispute will do just fine. But Lion Hearted has one big advantage over the other two: he is proven.

Your mare needs a proven stallion because she is young and has no foals to race. If you are breeding to sell and your mare does not produce winners, it doesn't matter if she went to Storm Cat or to Missed His Date--they won't sell. The proven stallion gives you a better chance of recouping your long-term investment in your mare than an unproven stallion. Sure, he could be the next Yes It's True, but he could just as easily be Soul of the Matter. When your mare is older and proven to produce good winners, then she can take a chance on an unproven stallion.

Lion Hearted's foals' median selling price is roughly six times his fee. This is good for you, because it means that you are likely to recoup your investment in the foal. He has two foals out of Citidancer mares; both are unraced but one is only a 3yo of 2006 so it's likely she just hasn't started yet. I wouldn't worry about that at this point. His filly Creve Coeur has folks talking, and buzz is what you want for breeding to sell.

Of Oratory and Domestic Dispute, I think Oratory will sell better because the Pulpit sireline is such a hot-ticket item right now. But I much, much, much prefer Lion Hearted for the reasons above.

[kimberley mine]

Regarding your comments on the yearling market seems like I may need a little help in getting a yearling with size. So maybe I should consider a larger stallion but one that will fit conformation wise.

Well, Lion Hearted is a cool 16.1, which is right about right.

I was just fooling around with the Pleasantly Perfect comment. He is out of our range for now and I do understand that she hasn't earned taht level of breeding yet. She is part of a fairly live family so maybe some day we'll get there. She has a nice half-sister out of Not for Love that is a three year old this year and looks pretty promising, Elirose.

No worries, it's not a bad idea.

Thanks for answering my question on the cross. Makes sense. You answered all my questions. What do you think of the sales potential of the prospective Pleasant Tap foal? Wondering if others will see what you see in the foal.

In Kentucky, a good-looking Pleasant Tap might sell very high indeed. One at the 2004 Keeneland September sold for $190,000. But, at that same sale, there were 16 offered, 4 RNA'd, and six didn't even bring the stud fee. In 2005 Keeneland September, one sold for the stud fee and one sold for $3500. At last year's Fasig-Tipton Midatlantic, two were offered and both RNA'd. So if the foal looks just fantastic, you'll score big (in Kentucky), but if not, you're better off offering the foal privately or racing it yourself.

At the sales, you can note for the caller that this foal is bred on a similar cross as graded stakes winners (fill in the blank), which may sway some buyers but not others. I don't know if Lanes End is willing to cut a deal--that may be something to look into for next year.

[topley]

Lion-Hearted was our original choice. We sort of started second-guessing ourselves a liitle bit with the other two.

Domestic Dispute because Unbridled's Song seems pretty hot right now. He was sound for a fairy long career. Also I have seen a few comments about how physically impressive he is in person.

Oratory because he seems very well-bred.

Thanks again Kimberley. Any thoughts on Parker's Storm Cat? We have her in foal to him now...

[Heidilady]

I was poking around and although this isn't based on nearly the quality of insight in the previous posts I got curious about a few Lanes End stallions like Mingun.

He's $7,500 and impeccably bred (by AP Indy out of Miesque). Of course he's not proven so that's probably not where you'd wanna go but my absolute inexperience with werk nicks led me me to go 'ooh they have werk nicks available. Let's see if I'm totally nuts for thinking this sounded interesting.'

I haven't had to read an eNick report before so I'll just say that it got an A with (+169%) but what does the percentage mean? Yeah you can so tell I do these all the time. I was poking around for a hypomating and found this. Anywho, there's inbreeding 5 x 4 to Graustark and 4 x 4 Northern Dancer. They call it the Seattle Slew-Dixieland Band cross on the werk nick. I have no idea what Q7 quality means.

I just brought it up because if you go for the whole package including extra things like dosage and werk nicks it's a good one plus it's the price range mentioned. He's half to Kingmambo who's got an excellent sire record and AP Indy's a sire of sires with Stephen Got Even, Pulpit, Old Triest, etc (to state the obvious). I also think it's interesting that Malibu Moon's the half-brother to Parker's Storm Cat, is sired by AP Indy, and he's clearly doing well with Declan's Moon and the like. The one thing is the Mr. Prospector isn't there with Mingun but the family of this foal would be similar to your foal-to-be but the sire will have a slightly fancier overall "thing." My question here is, are we then breeding an obvious turf horse? I'll dig around a bit to examine the Citidancer situation with AP Indy but just wanted to get this up. Check out Mingun at the stallion register and there's a video of him walking.

[Heidilady]

Ok I give up. Apparently I keep finding turf sires for you by accident. King Cugat comes up an A++ nick. Clearly I don't know what I'm doing cuz I just tried that one along with a few others just to see.

Here's a foal photo collection though so you can get a look at them: http://www.lanesend.com/news/03foal_photos.html

Here's a pdf with a mating analysis and the Mr Prospector would help your horse but it also brings in a lot of Mingun's family tree that worked before so it's kinda got a little more but King Cugat's family crosses well with Graustark and Hoist the Flag and Ribot so that helps Nicoles Dancer. He's only $5,000 for a live foal and has Reina Musical as a G1 winner (in what I'm guessing is Puerto Rico but hey) but totally a turf horse. The thing that's interesting is that the yearlings seem to sell well compared to the stud fee so that's gotta be worth a look right? Well at least some sell well. I'm guessing if a median is $8,000 that there's some of them must've been pulling the average up by being pretty high comparatively so on second thought. Nah I'll let the big wig analysts do the gutting and I would totally look for other stallions at other farms, I just happened to get a tad werk-happy when I saw the button on the site and I'd never used them before.

http://www.lanesend.com/stallions/pdfs/ ... _Cugat.pdf

[Keith]

I would conside Changeintheweather by Gone West-Meteor Colony by Pleasant Colony He stands at Xanthus Farms in Gettysburg.

Crossed with Nicoles Dancer you would get
4x5 Tamerett
5x5 Ribot
5x5 Flower Bowl
5x6 Somethingroyal
4x5x6 Northern Dancer


Keith

[Morningside]

i generally would agree with going with proven stallions before you go to a first year stallion, but in this case, i see no difference between going to oratory or lion hearted - neither of them is really "proven." if you're just debating between these two, i would got o oratory in a heartbeat... by the time you sell the foal, lion hearted's 4th crop will be running as 3YO's, there's a chance he'll lose his commercial appeal if nothing hits from his 2nd or 3rd crops... whereas oratory could be standing at KY by that time!
and i think parker's storm cat was a very bad idea... your mare's unproven, and not only was the stallion unproven, he couldn't even run on the track!
my advice is to breed to oratory while he's still in MD, keep the foal, breed the mare to oratory one more time and then sell the mare in foal.
if you absolutely must keep the mare, maybe you can look into breeding her to arch, a stallion that will give some size, AND he's a proven stallion on the rebound commercially...

[madelyn]

Oh one thing to add, using a Werk nick alone to select a stallion is not a good idea. It only uses sirelines.