Pedigree Query

We just purchased a Salt Lake mare, Salty Helen in foal to Yes It's True. She already has a foal by El Corredor and Grand Slam. Considering El C's half brother, Roman Ruler, as next stallion for her. This foal would be 3x4 to Deputy Minister and 4x4 to Mr. P. Thoughts on this mating?

You will really want to make sure your mare has excellent feet before considering Roman Ruler.

Hi Jagger,

Congratulations on your new mare, Salty Helen.

You don't mention your intentions for the foal, sell or race and a description of Helen would help.

Helen's first 3 foals will all be by proven, young stallions (even if not at the time that they were bred) so an unproven stallion isn't much of a liability for her (though she's still unproven). That said, I wouldn't breed to Roman Ruler - at least not this year. Factors are at play that make him a better potential mate in 2007 or 2008, his fee shouldn't be higher, (may be lower) and you can make that choice with better information.

Helen's first foal is by El Corredor, Roman Ruler's 1/2 brother. I've posted several times about the anomaly of 1/2 siblings not siring as well as their superior (racing) brothers and I can't say who the better brother is. In the coming years you'll know if the original mating to El Corredor had merit.

Fusaichi Pegasus' place as a stallion will be more solidified in the coming years and he's still a young sire himself. So will El Corredor, only 1 crop behind FuPeg.

In 2007 you may not be able to see Roman Ruler's foals before contracting to him but by 2008 you would have been able to see many of them.

There's no reason to inbreed to Deputy Minister without cause – the rest has to fit. Inbreeding for inbreeding sake isn't a sound technique. Your mare has already been inbred to Deputy Minister with the El Corredor mating and I don't advise making 2 test tubes with the same sample (so to speak). I think that there are better choices for you out there at this time and you can make a better educated decision to breed or not breed to Roman Ruler in the future.

Pedigree is only one of many considerations in making a breeding. Conformation, potential to fulfill breeding goals and aptitude are some of the other areas to evaluate.

Helen brings six strains of Hyperion (7 x 8 x 8 x 6 x 7 x and three of Native Dancer (6 x 5 x 5 and none through Raise A Native). As tempting as Mr. Prospector lines may seem, I believe that they must be carefully selected for compatibility or not used at all. If they can be successful with her you have an El Corredor and Grand Slam to proof it with (and before you use a Roman Ruler). I see no need to breed to a wonderful line that may not match your mare.

Some of recommendations in declining price categories:
Tiznow ($40k) has had success with mares of similar content to Helen’s right off the bat (and little with Mr. Prospector). Most didn’t believe that he’d get 2yo runners and yet he has a champion and 11 winners. I like her speed with him as shown in Folklore.

Lion Heart ($30k) bred an incredible 233 mares. He has all the qualities I want to see in a stallion prospect and immediate commercial visibility. Northern Dancer 5 x 5 on sire lines is fine and a nice tie of sire dam line to dam sire line through Bellesoeur.

Montbrook ($20k) had a slow 2005 and his future commercial appeal will increasingly be tied to the success of his numerous sons that have entered stud in recent years. Bred to a Florida mare base he’s seen surprisingly few Northern Dancer line mares yet has had considerable success having gotten Trust N Luck, Grand Veranda (Dahar), Ms Brookski (Baldski) and Monteration (Assert) as well as Source by a Damascus mare. No matter what he’s a battle tested stallion that can get very nice runners.

Vicar ($10k) is getting his share of good winners but has only 2 stakes winners but both are graded. An excellent hypo pedigree with lots of potential in line breeding and a rare but most welcome top/bottom line tie on the wonderful mare Shenanigans (through Icedapade and Laughter). Wild Again’s sire line is one of the few that has always had strong affinities for Hyperion and Helen’s six strains will work in her favor in this mating.

Oratory ($5k) is this year’s Jump Start with three wins and two seconds in five starts, showing his ability in an impressive win in The Peter Pan stakes before a career ending injury. He’s not a $5k stallion – that’s just his price. His sire line has excellent commercial appeal and he’s a good pedigree fit with lots of bang for the buck. Will he be a good sire? I believe so. He stands at Country Life Farms who have a good track record of proving modestly priced stallions and most without his pedigree or credentials. He’s a 4 x 3 Deputy Minister cross – this is a case of inbreeding with purpose.

Regards,

Pete

Congratulations on your new mare! I looked at Salty Helen at the sale and really liked her. Have you seen Roman Ruler? If not, please go look at him before considering breeding to him.

233 possible foals? Holy crap. I beg you to tell me that Lion Heart shuttled. Please tell me he shuttled and that half of these foals will be in Australia.

I was looking at Vicar online the other day. Gotta say he's a cutie and underrated. Note the 17 starts you got there. I love how they set his head in the conformation photo that's in this database because it reminds me of those paintings of horses in the 1800s that look slightly fantastical. I'm always a fan of Tiznow too. I agree with waiting on Roman Ruler because frankly the feet concerned me while he was racing and I'd want some indication he won't be throwing unsound horses. In fact, progeny sans Mr. Prospector's always a nice thing--it's kinda fun to promote the idea of an outcross to a sounder line and might help the value of your colt/filly down the line.

Heidi, that 233 number is for northern hemisphere only. He bred more mares than any other stallion in 2005.

LSB wrote:Heidi, that 233 number is for northern hemisphere only. He bred more mares than any other stallion in 2005.

OMG. That poor horse. He probably feels like I do after I ride a bike for the first time in a year and I don't have to worry about--well, you know. Heck, that poor team at the stud barn. Nearly as bad as that, those poor auction masters trying to muster up enthusiasm for yet another son or daughter of Lion Heart. But hey, maybe the horse didn't mind doing his thing. I have to hope that's the case.

2 or 3 covers a day for 3 months or so (very approximate numbers clearly) but who in their right mind would breed to him now? I mean if you're breeding to sell you'd have to be nuts. How could there possibly be enough demand for his offspring to make anybody happy on their return?

There were 21 mares in foal to Lion Heart entered in the January sale. 12 sold for an average of 70K, 5 RNA'd and 4 were out.

Well, yes... but's let's look at this another way. One of the old tricks to get foals out there on the ground by a stallion is to take really good mares, breed them, and then sell them. Usually, the mares themselves would attract purchasers. Lion Heart stood last year for $30K.

The mares in question were nearly all by top stallions.

#76 was a young mare by Capote, no less, out of a graded stakes-winning dam. She brough $150K.

#112 was a Turkoman mare with four graded stakes winners under her first dam, and still RNA'd at $27K.

#114 was a stakes-winning daughter (Nearly $200K) of Gold Token who RNA'd at $70K.

#118 was a daughter of Seeking the Gold, out of a graded stakes-winning dam, who has already produced a stakes placed horse, and brought merely $80K.

#131 was a graded stakes-placed daughter of Gulch out of a graded stakes-placed mare and brought only $57K.

#137 was no less than CHOSEN LADY, the subject of another post by our own Pete Siegel, whom he thought went for WAY less than her value, if not half.

#157 was a graded stakes-winning daughter of Pleasant Colony, with two G1 winning siblings and two graded stakes-placed offspring and brought $45K.

#273 was a daughter of Phone Trick whose 2nd dam produced a Kentucky Oaks winner, and brought $55K.

#281 was the dam of MANNDAR and RNA'd at $23K!

#309 was a daughter of Star of the Crop with so much black type under her first dam there wasn't room to post the second... and RNA'd at $47K.

#446 OUT

#519 was a daughter of Black Tie affair, with a page like #309, and brought just $35K.

#641 was a stakes-winning daughter of Lion Cavern, lovely page, and bred to both Successful Appeal and Lion Heart (I guess it will be up to the DNA to figure out which is really the daddy) and went for $85K... maybe there is a toss-of-the-coin thing here and the buyer is HOPING, REALLY HOPING it's an offspring of Successful Appeal.

#645 OUT

#677 was a graded stakes producing daughter of General Assembly and brought only $45K.

#791 was a daughter of Royal Academy with a nice graded stakes family, out of a relatively young dam and brought $45K

#819 was OUT.

Now let's mess with the numbers a little bit. Throwing out #641 because she might in fact be in foal to Successful Appeal, we have 8 mares who sold for a total of $682,000. Now let's subtract the cover fees, $240,000, or $442,000, which, divided by 8 is an average of $55K per mare. These numbers are skewed, though, by hips #137 and #76. Those mares brought six figures, but far less than their actual value. More realistically, how do you view the sale of #157 for #45K less a stud fee of $30K? Was that mare only worth $15K?

It is interesting, though, that this has come up. Obviously Lion Heart garners much more respect than Richter Scale. The Phone Trick mare in foal to Lion Heart brought $55,000 while another young daughter of Phone Trick on the second-to-last day of the sale RNA'd for $4,000 in foal to Richter Scale. And if you look at the catalog pages they are not all that different. Romantic Trick's dam was a three-quarter sister to ANET!

I contend that more than half of these mares were worth much more than their net price (after subtracting the stud fee).

madelyn wrote:...#137 was no less than CHOSEN LADY, the subject of another post by our own Pete Siegel, whom he thought went for WAY less than her value, if not half.... Now let's mess with the numbers a little bit. Throwing out #641 because she might in fact be in foal to Successful Appeal, we have 8 mares who sold for a total of $682,000. Now let's subtract the cover fees, $240,000, or $442,000, which, divided by 8 is an average of $55K per mare. These numbers are skewed, though, by hips #137 and #76. Those mares brought six figures, but far less than their actual value. More realistically, how do you view the sale of #157 for #45K less a stud fee of $30K? Was that mare only worth $15K?... I contend that more than half of these mares were worth much more than their net price (after subtracting the stud fee).

"Actual value" is a subjective thing, don't you think? I would have to submit that what these mares sold for was their actual value on the day, especially since you think they all sold too low. Anyone who thought they were worth more could have paid more. No one did.

By the way, hip #157, though listed in foal to Lion Heart had never gotten pregnant and was sold empty, which probably lowered her price quite a bit.

(emphasis in the quote above is mine.)

Ah.. missed #157 going thru so I didn't see the "Not Pregnant".. would she have brought $75K in foal?

Value certainly seems to be VERY subjective. I wonder how many of these mares were on mare-share contracts or were owned by Lion Heart's shareholders?

Also, one has to wonder how many were actually buybacks.. it is difficult to figure out, sometimes, who the seller actually is. For example, on the last day of the sale, a ticket was signed by "Merlin", and another by "Scuba and Otter".. were these real buyers? How about the several tickets signed by "Byerly"?

I've seen "Byerly" listed as a buyer at quite a few sales.

My two favorite buyers (don't know who they are) call themselves:
The Boys
Oops Bloodstock