Mr. P inbreeding
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Mr. P inbreeding
What has been the success/failure of inbreeding Mr. Prospector in the first 5 generations? Roman Ruler and El Corredor. Others?
Re: Mr. P inbreeding
jagger wrote:What has been the success/failure of inbreeding Mr. Prospector in the first 5 generations? Roman Ruler and El Corredor. Others?
Hard to know without having hard numbers as to how many horses that made it to the track are Mr. P inbreds. That being said, I know there were about 100 stakes winners inbred to him 4 years ago. Can't imagine it's gone up much since then.
Mr. P inbreeding
Can you give me some examples of those 100, Sam? Is it too early to see it much? I am finding lots of very successful attempts at inbreeding with Hail To Reason but very little with Mr. P. I am also finding seemingly few attempts at bringing Hail To Reason line mares to Mr. P or his sons and with little success.
Thanks for your response.
Thanks for your response.
Mr. P Inbreeding
According to the programme G1 Goldmine there are 52 horses inbred to Mr. P who have won Group races (24 x G1, 11 x G2, 17 x G3) winning a total of 84 group races in all.
G1 winners
3 G1 races Society Selection, Storming Home
2 G1 races Halfbridled, keeninsky and Strategic Maneuver
single G1 Roman Ruler , El Corredor, Declan's Moon, Shadow Cast Flower Alley, Taatletail, Volponi, Whywhywhy,Host, Carry on Kaite, Pleasant Home, Tapit, carry on Cutie, Elusive City, Dawn of war, Fortyninersson, Pussycatdoll, commentator, Divac.
Of course you would have to know how many horses were inbred to Mr. P in total to know whether this is a good result or not. Ibean, who posts on this Board, has a programme which calculates a Ventura Geoscore on G1 Goldmine which predicts how many G1 races should have been won by inbred Mr P's taking into account the massive number of G1 winners with a single occurrence of Mr P on either the sire or dam side and his score is 48 for USA dirt giving rise ( when contrasted with actual numbers) to a VenturaGeoscore of only 0.39. This means good horses are not occuring as frequently as they should when inbred to Mr. P or , simply put, the G1 Goldmine programme suggests inbreeding to Mr P is not a particularly good idea.
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vapir air one
G1 winners
3 G1 races Society Selection, Storming Home
2 G1 races Halfbridled, keeninsky and Strategic Maneuver
single G1 Roman Ruler , El Corredor, Declan's Moon, Shadow Cast Flower Alley, Taatletail, Volponi, Whywhywhy,Host, Carry on Kaite, Pleasant Home, Tapit, carry on Cutie, Elusive City, Dawn of war, Fortyninersson, Pussycatdoll, commentator, Divac.
Of course you would have to know how many horses were inbred to Mr. P in total to know whether this is a good result or not. Ibean, who posts on this Board, has a programme which calculates a Ventura Geoscore on G1 Goldmine which predicts how many G1 races should have been won by inbred Mr P's taking into account the massive number of G1 winners with a single occurrence of Mr P on either the sire or dam side and his score is 48 for USA dirt giving rise ( when contrasted with actual numbers) to a VenturaGeoscore of only 0.39. This means good horses are not occuring as frequently as they should when inbred to Mr. P or , simply put, the G1 Goldmine programme suggests inbreeding to Mr P is not a particularly good idea.
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vapir air one
Last edited by Galejade on Thu Feb 03, 2011 12:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
Mr. P inbreeding
What incredible information, Galejade 
This is more useful than nicking reports. I'm guessing there is a charge for Ilbean's services? Would you go so far to say that inbreeding to Mr. P is a bad idea or perhaps should be avoided?
Thanks a lot for the info. I don't know if I would have ever come up with this kind of data.
This is more useful than nicking reports. I'm guessing there is a charge for Ilbean's services? Would you go so far to say that inbreeding to Mr. P is a bad idea or perhaps should be avoided?
Thanks a lot for the info. I don't know if I would have ever come up with this kind of data.
Mr. P Inbreeding
Jagger,
It isn't my info it is from a programme called G1 Goldmine. There is a web site www.g1goldmine which explains the programme which costs $90.
You might find it useful.
I couldn't possibly go as far as saying inbreeding to Mr. P is a bad idea. I would certainly avoid having Mr. P on the sires sireline and the dams sire line. IMHO only Northern Dancer consistently gets good winners with this pattern. Mr. P on the sire line bred to a dam with Mr P in her dam line might well work well. I have not got the numbers to be statistically accurate. You can get G1 Goldmine and study the pedigrees for those good horses inbred to Mr P. certainly Society Selection who was 3 x 3 to Mr P had a grandam sired by Mr P.
Since I breed in the UK Mr. P is not the force over here that he is in the states his best son in the European theatre was perhaps Machiavellian who has just died.
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Toyota Department of Fan Operations specifications
It isn't my info it is from a programme called G1 Goldmine. There is a web site www.g1goldmine which explains the programme which costs $90.
You might find it useful.
I couldn't possibly go as far as saying inbreeding to Mr. P is a bad idea. I would certainly avoid having Mr. P on the sires sireline and the dams sire line. IMHO only Northern Dancer consistently gets good winners with this pattern. Mr. P on the sire line bred to a dam with Mr P in her dam line might well work well. I have not got the numbers to be statistically accurate. You can get G1 Goldmine and study the pedigrees for those good horses inbred to Mr P. certainly Society Selection who was 3 x 3 to Mr P had a grandam sired by Mr P.
Since I breed in the UK Mr. P is not the force over here that he is in the states his best son in the European theatre was perhaps Machiavellian who has just died.
________
Toyota Department of Fan Operations specifications
Last edited by Galejade on Thu Feb 03, 2011 12:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Mr. P Inbreeding
Galejade wrote:Since I breed in the UK Mr. P is not the force over here that he is in the states his best son in the European theatre was perhaps Machiavellian who has just died.
WHAT!?
When did that happen?
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roving boy
- Allowance Winner
- Posts: 294
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Inbreeding to Mr. P
Anybody notice any commonalities with the rest of the pedigree when inbreeding Mr. P works? Presence or abscence of other horses in the pedigree?
Anyone use the program described by Galejade above?
Anyone use the program described by Galejade above?
Machiavellian
A press release from Darley on 25th June 2004 said he had been put down at age 17 suffering from laminitis. He had been withdrawn from covering duties that spring.
I refreshed my memory by visiting www.darleystallions.com and using the search facility
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Yamaha DX5
I refreshed my memory by visiting www.darleystallions.com and using the search facility
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Yamaha DX5
Last edited by Galejade on Thu Feb 03, 2011 12:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
Hi Galejade,
You've done an excellent job of explaining my invention (thanks).
On the specific case of inbreeding to Mr Prospector though it should be noted that the most important weakness of VGS Program currently is inbreeding…
You see, in the case of Mr Prospector there's a perception amongst many breeders that inbreeding to him is bad and as a result many of them avoid the pattern.
The VGS doesn't take this into account currently because we haven't yet reached a point where it can adjust for How Many Specific Jumps a cross has had... And as a result we probably shouldn't jump to too many conclusions in regards to Mr P inbreeding (I'm not saying Inbreeding Avoidance entirely explains the low score but research done by someone I know into the number of times it's been tried indicate there's been great avoidance of Mr P inbreeding).
In contrast to Mr P inbreeding (which has a pretty good excuse which may explain the low score); the Mr P/Hyperion cross has a very low score relative to the HUGE sample size even though it doesn't involve inbreeding.
Therefore, I'd say the Mr P / Hyperion cross is something to avoid, generally speaking (I'll admit the Goldmine Program only counts crosses where the two ancestors are within 5 generations so a further back cross of Hyperion in your mare might not preclude her as a good mate for the right kind of Mr P descended stallion; but still the overall negativeness of the cross is something to bear in mind and you would be well advised to see how well Mr P has done with the source[s] of Hyperion in your mare via the Goldmine Program and the VGS)...
Excellent question Roving Boy,
The Fappiano / Mr Prospector cross was predicted to get 9.26 G1Ws and actually got 8, which gives it a VGS of 0.89.
Given that Fappiano descendants are probably crossed less with other Mr P descendants due to inbreeding avoidance; this is a nice result.
Still, it's worth noting that inbreeding to Mr P through Fappiano (B. 1977) is avoided less than nearly all other forms of Mr P inbreeding due to Fappiano showing up far enough back in a lot of pedigrees and that the intensity of the inbreeding involved in crossing him with his sire is thus less frightening to quite a few breeders.
In contrast, Gone West (B. 1984) somehow manages to get a VGS of 1.01 crossed with his sire in spite of his being born recently enough that he's usually the sire or grandsire of his descendants (which means crossing him and Mr P would result in a 2x? or 3X? intensity of inbreeding that most people avoid).
-Michael
You've done an excellent job of explaining my invention (thanks).
On the specific case of inbreeding to Mr Prospector though it should be noted that the most important weakness of VGS Program currently is inbreeding…
You see, in the case of Mr Prospector there's a perception amongst many breeders that inbreeding to him is bad and as a result many of them avoid the pattern.
The VGS doesn't take this into account currently because we haven't yet reached a point where it can adjust for How Many Specific Jumps a cross has had... And as a result we probably shouldn't jump to too many conclusions in regards to Mr P inbreeding (I'm not saying Inbreeding Avoidance entirely explains the low score but research done by someone I know into the number of times it's been tried indicate there's been great avoidance of Mr P inbreeding).
In contrast to Mr P inbreeding (which has a pretty good excuse which may explain the low score); the Mr P/Hyperion cross has a very low score relative to the HUGE sample size even though it doesn't involve inbreeding.
Therefore, I'd say the Mr P / Hyperion cross is something to avoid, generally speaking (I'll admit the Goldmine Program only counts crosses where the two ancestors are within 5 generations so a further back cross of Hyperion in your mare might not preclude her as a good mate for the right kind of Mr P descended stallion; but still the overall negativeness of the cross is something to bear in mind and you would be well advised to see how well Mr P has done with the source[s] of Hyperion in your mare via the Goldmine Program and the VGS)...
I would like to know Ilbean's numbers for the most successful means of linebreeding Mr. P - that which has Fappiano as one of the conduits.
What do those numbers look like?
Excellent question Roving Boy,
The Fappiano / Mr Prospector cross was predicted to get 9.26 G1Ws and actually got 8, which gives it a VGS of 0.89.
Given that Fappiano descendants are probably crossed less with other Mr P descendants due to inbreeding avoidance; this is a nice result.
Still, it's worth noting that inbreeding to Mr P through Fappiano (B. 1977) is avoided less than nearly all other forms of Mr P inbreeding due to Fappiano showing up far enough back in a lot of pedigrees and that the intensity of the inbreeding involved in crossing him with his sire is thus less frightening to quite a few breeders.
In contrast, Gone West (B. 1984) somehow manages to get a VGS of 1.01 crossed with his sire in spite of his being born recently enough that he's usually the sire or grandsire of his descendants (which means crossing him and Mr P would result in a 2x? or 3X? intensity of inbreeding that most people avoid).
-Michael
"What happened is merely a sample of what might have happened, weighted by probability."
http://www.venturageoscore.com/
http://www.venturageoscore.com/
Inbreeding to Mr P
Ibean,
If your friend has a good handle on the number of times that inbreeding to Mr P has been tried we can get a good idea of its success rate since we can readily find the number of Group winners inbred to Mr P.
I have long felt that judicious inbreeding through different conduits is the best way to go but testing the theory without access to the Jockey clubs data base is not easy!
Could you twist his arm gently?
________
GM Ultra Engine specifications
If your friend has a good handle on the number of times that inbreeding to Mr P has been tried we can get a good idea of its success rate since we can readily find the number of Group winners inbred to Mr P.
I have long felt that judicious inbreeding through different conduits is the best way to go but testing the theory without access to the Jockey clubs data base is not easy!
Could you twist his arm gently?
________
GM Ultra Engine specifications
Last edited by Galejade on Thu Feb 03, 2011 12:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
Hi Galejade,
The Database of my friend has 849 Individual Horses inbred to Mr Prospector and it's notable that his database (which he, incredibly, put together himself) has (to use an example) about 50% of the foals by Gone West (if a horse didn't go through an auction or run in a race he or she usually won't show up in his database and this explains why he doesn't have all of them).
If you want more details on the list let me know...
-llbean
The Database of my friend has 849 Individual Horses inbred to Mr Prospector and it's notable that his database (which he, incredibly, put together himself) has (to use an example) about 50% of the foals by Gone West (if a horse didn't go through an auction or run in a race he or she usually won't show up in his database and this explains why he doesn't have all of them).
If you want more details on the list let me know...
-llbean
"What happened is merely a sample of what might have happened, weighted by probability."
http://www.venturageoscore.com/
http://www.venturageoscore.com/