Durability Index

[Rahy85]

Have any of you seen ATR's Durability Index? Here's the link:

www.thoroughbredreview.com/durability.htm

My question is why would 4 of the bottom 5 sires be California sires? Is it a flaw in ATR's system, or is their system accurately identifying a variable exclusive to California?

[geowarrior]

It may well change as they add more stallions to the list. I'd wait and see.

[Rahy85]

That's a possibility.

[Toccet02]

Have any of you seen ATR's Durability Index? Here's the link:

www.thoroughbredreview.com/durability.htm

My question is why would 4 of the bottom 5 sires be California sires? Is it a flaw in ATR's system, or is their system accurately identifying a variable exclusive to California?

Perhaps those CA track fatality rashes that hit in the last couple years? Memories hazy, but there have also been artificial surface problems.
I'm sure # of starts could be down on horses from CA tracks (and prob CA stallions) due to trainers reluctant to start on suspect artificial surfaces...or am I talking out of my A** here?

[bdw0617]

I'm suprised to see theatrical that low and holy bull for that matter. I always thought of holy bull to be somewhat durable.

[soundfast]

I do no think much of their system. Some horses offspring race mostly in one or a few states and purses vary a lot from one state to another. I do not think a horses soundness is affected by the level of competition. If a horse is suited to stakes competition and runs his best and some other horse is trying his hardest to win at $2,500 both are putting forth their best effort and both should be judged the same. He figures a stakes horse has more right to be unsound than a claimer which is ridiculous. Some stakes winners have had quite a few more than the average number of starts per runner and some claimers less. The idea that it is OK for a stakes winner to be unsound is one of the big problems in Thoroughbreds. Horses who retired with a fracture after a dozen or less starts are becoming more common and producing more unsound horses and there are thousands of horses being euthanized because of it. Theatricals get average 13 starts and Holy Bull's 14 while Giants Causeways 8 and Forestrys 9. His top three are doing OK soundness wise but he has Valid Expectations way down when his average 18 which is the same as Silver Deputys. Giants Causeway does not deserve to be higher than Forestry,etc.

[bdw0617]

As a lifetime athlete I believe wholeheardtly in the system.

Simply put, while some people have more natural talent, that natural talent still has a price.
example, I'm a very fast sprinter, always have been. I never even ran track but in basketball practice they time you in the 40 and I was hands down the fastest person on the team, I run a constant high 4.4. That's Division 1 college football speed. that is nothing but genetics.. my father is very athletic as is most my family.

My point in telling you that, is that while I was for lack of a better word, blessed with quickness and speed, it has even at the young age of 25, taken a toll on my body. I have torn my ACL, twice, already, and because I put so much strain on my hamstrings when I run I have to stretch them out for a good 30 mintues at least before I do any type of exercising or else I will hurt myself. I've tweaked, pulled and torn muscles in my hamstrings more times than I wish to remember.

after I run or do anything really stranious that takes my legs, I am about as useful as a carrot the next morning. But when I am warmed up I can outrun most people, pretty easily.

the entire point of all that is that, I am not doing anything extra special that anyone else is doing, but at the same time i am putting alot more strain on my body than the guy that is slower than me.

when a horse runs FASTER, it means he, rahter it be by god given ability or whatever, is putting more strain on his body than the horse that is running slower.

It's actually simple physics. To run faster you have to move faster. When you move faster you strain yourself more than if you didn't.

[KamiBrooks]

I call BS on the system, although I can see it being made into a "program" or what ever. Its mixing apples and oranges based on an unsubstantiated theory that cannot be proven even if someone wanted to (too many confounding factors). AND weighting it (earnings/start) equal to starts/starter! Then doubling it up just a bit when they add in the homegrown SI/comSI thing.

I disagree that the faster athlete puts more strain on their body. We're not comparing 10mph vs 35mph, its a very small difference in speed, so the difference in physics is just not that extensive. Unless you can show that the jockey's are not pushing horses in lower level races, you have to assume that the horses are putting out max effort.

In my opinion, the lower level horses (lower earnings/start) are actually likely doing MORE damage because they are probably compensating for physical flaws that prevent their speed (e.g. bad movement, lack of wind, etc). But, the AEI/CI stats are already out there.

Don't agree with the sprinting human scenario. Humans with athletic talent tend to be more physical, so get more damage only because they're physical more often. Humans w/out athletic talent tend to gravitate to couch potatoes... but if you routinely chased them with a gun to get a max effort out of them, you can bet you'd be very likely to get injuries too... probably even more injuries than the athletic human.

I can totally see this "theory" getting some sort of articles published, but the basis just is flawed. The amount earned has NOTHING to do with durability in my mind. But that index (based sole on starts/foal) is already published and out there too.

In the end you gotta love statistics and the tales it can spin!

[Rahy85]

Kami: So two sires with equal starts per starter and % starters from foals should be evaluated exactly the same by mare owners regardless of other factors? Even in cases where the average earnings per start on one sire is 4-5 times higher, you'd still give the same rating?

Anyone else have any ideas on the California variable?

[Roger]

In my simplistic thinking, class is the main difference in the level of racing, speed is fairly much the same. A horse with good class will try harder and if it doesn't have the soundness element it will breakdown quicker than a like horse with less class who will cheat. The other side of the class equation are horses like Valid Expectations, who throw horses with a lot more class than those they run against (regional stallions). They last because they don't have to use themselves up everytime they run. They just out class their competition. bdw made mention of something like this back on the Eight Belles threads. I don't know if they have the index right yet, but it is a start and its needed.

[Rahy85]

Interesting that both Indian Charlie and his sire (In Excess) were rated poorly.

[soundfast]

Class does count in choosing a sire but it also counts in choosing a mare. Matings should never be planned soley on a stallions rating but the soundness of his offspring and his compatibility with each individual mare and the quality of his offspring also. Comparing stallions on average earnings per runner with other stallions who have been standing in the same state is more useful than trying to compare them nationally if their offspring mostly race in a regional area. They may not look good in national comparisons. Those horses who try equally hard are putting the same stresses on their bodies. The top stakes horse who easily beats his competition without going all out put less strain on himself than some poor claimer who goes all out to win. Athletes who train properly do not suffer a lot of injuries as they accustom their bodies to the stresses and build up their muscles. Horses that are properly trained are brought along at their own speed so that they are fit. A horse with hereditary weaknesses like fragile bones might not ever be able to stay fit and I am not in favor of them producing more unsoundness. I know from the statistics on fatal and non fatal fractures which name horses that some slow horses who never won a race had fractures and were euthanized. A fragile boned horse who is fragile boned because of heredity should not be at stud in my opinion. Jockeys and exercise riders have been injured or sometimes died because of horses breaking down. I have injured myself more than once and I have never been an athlete. Being injured does not mean your a better athlete. The best athletes take care of themselves and train themselves and generally avoid injuries. Horses have to rely on people.

[Rahy85]

"Those horses who try equally hard are putting the same stresses on their bodies."

Sorry Soundfast, but that simply is not true. Two horses may be putting forth equal effort, but if one is traveling at a higher velocity (speed), then that horse is clearly going to be at a higher risk for injury.

[pokeyman]

Just another perspective, horses that are extremely well bred tend to make fewer starts than horses who are not well bred. For example, owners/breeders will quit on a filly that can only break her maiden and shows little talent for allowance/stakes races and bring her home and breed her rather than risk losing her (with her pedigree and high price tag).

Thus, horses by the big name stallions with VERY expensive price tags and great pedigrees tend to be pulled from racing early and bred versus sent to claiming conditions.

Does this mean that they are siring unsound horses...well, not necessarily.

[Rahy85]

Good point Pokeyman. ATR should probably categorize the list by stud fee range.