Rock Hard Ten...where will he set up shop and at what cost?

[llbean]

Mr Prospector descended mares look FINE with Rock Hard Ten to me (the thing one must understand is that Mr P inbreeding is avoided by breeders to such an extent that the relatively small amount of success it's had represents a significantly BETTER percentage of success than it should be getting).

For instance, I have a friend and in his database inbreeding to Mr Prospector through Gone West gets a Percentage of SWs and G1Ws MORE THAN DOUBLE Gone West's percentage of G1Ws as a SIRE in spite of the obvious fact that most of the foals of racing age inbred to Mr P through Gone West are by sons or grandsons of Gone West with significantly inferior stats than their daddy or granddaddy.

I realize my friend only has about half the foals by Gone West in his database; but even taking that into account the results are still remarkable... After all, any breeder would gladly take stats even half so good as 4.16% G1Ws, 12.5% Graded Stakes Winnners, and 23.61% Stakes Winners, right!

Also, it's notable that I agree with FOS heartily that Valid Appeal should be interesting for Rock Hard Ten.

-llbean

[freddymo]

I agree we could find some nice mares to fit ROCK but we could do that for any stallion.. The idea that you have to try at 50 to 150k is the point. I am not in favor of inbreeding to Mr P. that closely and think that all samplings should be looked at for what thay are small samplings.

The Rock IMO is not nearly as sort out as you think. I think 25k advertised would be about right.

[FOS]

hi freddymo

You wrote "I agree we could find some nice mares to fit ROCK but we could do that for any stallion.. The idea that you have to try at 50 to 150k is the point."

Exactly what does that mean?

You also wrote re: a stud fee for Rock Hard Ten "I think 25k advertised would be about right."

If that's your opinion...fair enough...

...and from my perspective I'd find $25k extremely appealing...but I expect that he'll be a whole lot more than that...and there'll be no shortage of wonderful mares offered to fill his book. Who knows...maybe the powers that be will tag Rock Hard Ten with a $25k stud fee (or less)...but right now I would guess those chances are slim at best, especially if he's as good looking as we've been led to believe he is...but right now we might agree, it's all speculation.

freddymo, for reference sake I ask...what stud fees would you have placed (upon their retirement) on Roman Ruler...and Strong Hope...and Lion Heart...and Medaglia D'Oro...and Empire Maker...etc

...and what about 2004 Champion 3-yo Smarty Jones...and 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper...and probable Horse of the Year 2005 Saint Liam?

What stud fee do you expect will tagged on to Bandini (assuming he is finished)?

Best to you.

Respectfully

[BJ]

hi guys

Now that Rock Hard Ten has been announced as retired from racing...where will he stand at stud...hmmm? I assume that all the usual (and maybe some of the less than usual) suspects will enter the fray (if they haven't already)...

What about the farm that RHT's people own? Up in northern Central California...Running Luck Farm, I believe it is called. My mares were born there Would be great for California!

[LSB]

I've heard that the stud fee is going to be 50K. As far as the farm, the deal is still in the works.

[StrawberryFelidos]

LSB, where did you hear the news?
Sounds like Coolmore didn't win or the fee would be higher But, then again, they do have an empty stall now and might find a $50K stallion a big improvement over an unpopular $30K boy...

[Intrinsic Worth]

50k for a stallion who could very likely throw oversized two year olds that won't run until they are 3

[freddymo]

hi freddymo

You wrote "I agree we could find some nice mares to fit ROCK but we could do that for any stallion.. The idea that you have to try at 50 to 150k is the point."

Exactly what does that mean?

You also wrote re: a stud fee for Rock Hard Ten "I think 25k advertised would be about right."

If that's your opinion...fair enough...

...and from my perspective I'd find $25k extremely appealing...but I expect that he'll be a whole lot more than that...and there'll be no shortage of wonderful mares offered to fill his book. Who knows...maybe the powers that be will tag Rock Hard Ten with a $25k stud fee (or less)...but right now I would guess those chances are slim at best, especially if he's as good looking as we've been led to believe he is...but right now we might agree, it's all speculation.

freddymo, for reference sake I ask...what stud fees would you have placed (upon their retirement) on Roman Ruler...and Strong Hope...and Lion Heart...and Medaglia D'Oro...and Empire Maker...etc

...and what about 2004 Champion 3-yo Smarty Jones...and 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper...and probable Horse of the Year 2005 Saint Liam?

What stud fee do you expect will tagged on to Bandini (assuming he is finished)?

Best to you.

Respectfully

FOS 100 to 150k stallions improve all mares (obviously not closely 2 x 2)
These stallions Mambo, Unbridled(past) Indy, Gone west, Seeking, don't require deep insight as they cross better with some but work well with basically anything remotely correctly bred.. Obviously confirmation excluded in comments above. As that is always a MAJOR considerarion.

Empire Maker was a superior talent and classically bred and is a fairly correct individual... Starting him at 100ish was a NO BRAINER.. As the fisrt son of Fu Peg to retire and with his decent(no big deal) race record I would start RR at about a 3rd of FUPEG.. look RR offers the onlt cheap alternative to FuPeg so if you want FuPeg but caint afford him at 125 or 100 RR is an easier pill to swallow. Personally I hated RR as a horse think he was ok up to 9f's and basically a grade 2 animal in a horrible crop. Strong Hope well this one is a tough one for me because I think the horse was really quite good. He is very well bred. His DM dam is quite a good producer and I love the Halo in her pedigree. I also like GS so I really not to objective but I will suggest he was 3 times the horse as RR and has a really well rounded pedigree. Strong Hope was a VERY talented horse. 35k .. Lion Heart was a very nice sort but he is part of the Coolmoore machine and his stud fee is iirelvelant. I love Tale but what do dyou bred to him? again 25ish... Zapper is a stupid number at 200k but the horse was incredible maybe the best in 20 years.. One of the best I have ever seen. Clearly a monster with his half already successful and his full a winner it looks like the Relaunch ,once again, is working.. I cant knock anything but the price I would have started him at 100k as 200k is for a proven producer not an awesome Racehorse. Smarty well this is not going to be from my heart as I truely loved Smarty and believed him to be a special horse but his fee is way to high should have been 65 to 75 but Smarty who was such a huge star that the re has to be a premium while you can get it. I think Smarty will be a better sire then Zapper! Not sure I can justify it its all opinion. As for the great Fraudini 20 to start followed by a decrease 10k then he will be shipped to Pa. St. Liam I think 50 is high but accurate meaning its the right price based on his accomplishments on the track. I hate Dutrow and wonder what magic was St liam and what magic was Dr Allday.. But I would love to see a St B/ Halo Grand son make a mark on the breed.. Lanes End is a very good operation and I would think they will give him a nice mix of solid broodies. I like St Liam think the price is Ok and would wait to see how he pans out. But I clearly agree with the price. St liam was a very very fast horse!

[Sam]

FOS 100 to 150k stallions improve all mares

I suggest you recheck that. MOST stallions in that price range either barely meet or are in fact just a hair below the mares presented to them.

Empire Maker was a superior talent

Empire Maker was controled by the king of spin and Juddmonte's lead pimp. "Superior talent"? If you say so. Personally, I found Medaglia d'Oro a far more talent 3yo.

Zapper is a stupid number at 200k but the horse was incredible maybe the best in 20 years

Again, YMMV. I wouldn't even put him in my top 10 of the last 20 years.

[FOS]

hi freddymo

Your thoughts and insights are much appreciated...thanks for taking the time.

You kind of surprised me re: your agreement with Empire Maker's initial stud fee being $100k and referring to it as a "no brainer" (your words). I'm not so sure that $100k isn't high (at least to some extent).

As for Strong Hope...he is apparently quite the looker (and does have an abundance of wonderful names in his pedigree). $30k might be a bit much...but I do like his chances.

Smarty Jones never struck me as a $100k stallion...I'm not so sure that he's a $75k stallion...hmmm.

I agree with your praise for Ghostzapper the race horse...A MONSTER. I expect that he'll attract limited outside support at his advertised fee for 2006 of $200,000, but I expect the stud fee decision was probably not related to what Frank Stronach or Jess Jackson thought might best attract support from off the farm. Regardless...$200k seems a bit (maybe quite a bit) much...but he was one heck of a racehorse.

As for Saint Liam...his sire (Saint Ballado) does concern me to the extent that he's had a number of young sons at stud that arguably have been afforded good (or better) opportunities...but arguably they have not accomplished a whole lot as racehorse sires. To that extent...Saint Liam concerns me.

For what it's worth...I am not a proponent of Rock Hard Ten standing for a HUGE stud fee...I am a believer though that he will be very easy to advertise and promote...and does have big market appeal.

Best to you.

Respectfully

[LSB]

StrawberryF, I have a mare I was thinking of RHT for, so I poked around a bit until I found someone who knew.

[BJ]

50k for a stallion who could very likely throw oversized two year olds that won't run until they are 3

Not ready to run, unfortunately, all too often, tends to be ignored in this biz. Personally, after recently taking an equine massage certification course, where I had to learn equine anatomy as if I was a Vet (almost), I would never breed to a big stallion. Big (and tall) horses are at very high risk and disadvantage in the soundness and the ability to carry weight on their backs, departments. There is enough risk in this business without going out looking to pay $50k or better to stack the odds against you. Just my very personal opinion. And I adored Rock Hard Ten...loved to look at him and backed him every time. But he scared me to death watching his big, heavy bones take a beating every time he ran. In his early days, he could barely get out of his own way. He actually reminded me of Ruffian, in many ways.

[freddymo]

FOS 100 to 150k stallions improve all mares

I suggest you recheck that. MOST stallions in that price range either barely meet or are in fact just a hair below the mares presented to them.

Empire Maker was a superior talent

Empire Maker was controled by the king of spin and Juddmonte's lead pimp. "Superior talent"? If you say so. Personally, I found Medaglia d'Oro a far more talent 3yo.

Zapper is a stupid number at 200k but the horse was incredible maybe the best in 20 years

Again, YMMV. I wouldn't even put him in my top 10 of the last 20 years.

Not recognizing Zapper and his BRILLANCE as a horse is insane.. He won from 7 to 10f's without issue.. He was incredibly fast.. Only Formal Gold and or Skip Trail at there very best could possiblely consisently run with ZAPPER. Sam ask the 'Capping greats Crist, Beyer, Serling etc. Zapper was a flat out freak an amazing once in a generation animal.. Is he worth 200k day 1 to breed to that is subject..

[roving boy]

Wow! What an interesting thread I have missed. To stay directly on the original target and ignore tangents...

I am not as excited about RHT as many seem to be - too big to sire commercial weanlings or yearlings, too late developing to sire 2 year olds, possibly too big to sire sound racehorses. Furthermore his connections' ridiculously high opinion of his value has turned off a number of stallion operations.

The likeliest player in my opinion is Walden & Hurricane Hall. Big Ben needs a headliner to launch the new stallion station (that's why they were almost the winners in the Smarty Jones contest). Walden will not consider only this horse income potential in his appraisal of value, he will also consider the non-tangibles like "buzz" and "hype" and what it would do for a nascent stallion operation. Remember what a dream ad account Vinery was during the Walden years? He will promote the hell out of RHT (and Hurricane Hall on the RHT syndicate's expense). He knows that in this game it is not steak that sells, it is sizzle. Why else would people pay more for the offpsring of unproven sires than that of proven sires?

Coolmore is/has been cornering the market on Storm Cat and Northern Dancer; said to be looking for AP Indy next. A WinStar/Taylor Made venture is certainly not out of the question. Lanes End does have the relationship, but as has been mentioned, RHT would compete directly with Saint Liam. Castleton Lyons has the money and is a possibility but the way he flaked up the Alex deal will make everyone reluctant to deal with him - ditto for Stonewall. So my thought is that it will most likely come down to Walden v. WinStar - wait a minute, isn't Ben's brother Elliot on a lifetime retainer with WinStar?

And while I believe the Hail To Reason line is set up for a tremendous resurgence, I think it will most likely be via Saint Ballado, although Red Ransom is also an excellent possibility.

It will be interesting to see what happens. HAs anyone ever thought of making this business a tv series?

[freddymo]

Wow! What an interesting thread I have missed. To stay directly on the original target and ignore tangents...

I am not as excited about RHT as many seem to be - too big to sire commercial weanlings or yearlings, too late developing to sire 2 year olds, possibly too big to sire sound racehorses. Furthermore his connections' ridiculously high opinion of his value has turned off a number of stallion operations.

The likeliest player in my opinion is Walden & Hurricane Hall. Big Ben needs a headliner to launch the new stallion station (that's why they were almost the winners in the Smarty Jones contest). Walden will not consider only this horse income potential in his appraisal of value, he will also consider the non-tangibles like "buzz" and "hype" and what it would do for a nascent stallion operation. Remember what a dream ad account Vinery was during the Walden years? He will promote the hell out of RHT (and Hurricane Hall on the RHT syndicate's expense). He knows that in this game it is not steak that sells, it is sizzle. Why else would people pay more for the offpsring of unproven sires than that of proven sires?

Coolmore is/has been cornering the market on Storm Cat and Northern Dancer; said to be looking for AP Indy next. A WinStar/Taylor Made venture is certainly not out of the question. Lanes End does have the relationship, but as has been mentioned, RHT would compete directly with Saint Liam. Castleton Lyons has the money and is a possibility but the way he flaked up the Alex deal will make everyone reluctant to deal with him - ditto for Stonewall. So my thought is that it will most likely come down to Walden v. WinStar - wait a minute, isn't Ben's brother Elliot on a lifetime retainer with WinStar?

And while I believe the Hail To Reason line is set up for a tremendous resurgence, I think it will most likely be via Saint Ballado, although Red Ransom is also an excellent possibility.

It will be interesting to see what happens. HAs anyone ever thought of making this business a tv series?

Well done cogent thoroughly explained and well constructed theory..