Officer

[Benevolus]

The three year old I am watching closely named Le Grands Trois is one of his sons. I expect this horse to makes some real noise next spring. He is out of a Gone West mare. Very impressive in his only start.

[brogers]

Guts Game cruised home at Aqueduct today to become the 20th individual winner for Officer this year. It is worth noting the class of these horses as ALL 20 have won in Maiden Special Weight company.

Guts Game's owners include Lebron James, Tom Brady and Jay-Z.

[fastappy]

Officer is putting up some impressive numbers at this point. Of the top five 1st crop sires he leads (BH 20 Nov 06) by highest percentage of starters from foals, percentage of winners from foals, stakes winners from foals, percentage of wins/placings from starts, stakes horses (9), and highest median earnings by far (over twice his nearest rival). Aside from "Include", Officer has gotten the weaker books of mares if viewed by the CI. Officer has improved the mares production with an AEI of 1.89 vs CI of 1.53.

Street Cry has an AEI of 3.41 vs CI of 2.56, the highest avg. earnings per starter of over $52K, highest avg earnings per start $16K, but a very low median of $5,612 (31 starters vs 37 for Officer thur 20 Nov 06)

Will Officer get a "Street Sense"? Will Officers foals get a classic distance?
Stay tuned!

[Rokeby Forever]

This is an interesting thread that shouldn't have died.

Speaking of "bump ups," is Johannesburg worth $65,000 compared to sires like Rahy that stand for $60,000? Is Scat Daddy out of THAT many foals worth the bump from $25,000 to $65,000 for Johannesburg?

Johannesburgs sell well...his 234 yearlings sold at auction have a $73,000 median. But if that median doesn't improve, $65,000 is not a great buy if you're breeding to sell.

As in the case of Officer, why do people rush in when a sire has a good first year? What has Songandaprayer done lately?

[fastappy]

[quote="Rokeby Forever"] As in the case of Officer, why do people rush in when a sire has a good first year? What has Songandaprayer done lately?[/quote]

Good point, likewise as FOS was indicating that these high percentage increase in fees are pre-mature in Officer's case (standing at Taylor Made) and I believe we can say the same for most 1st crop sires. It doesn't stop people from getting derby fever or Breeders Cup fever and somehow believe they're getting in on the front of the next Mr. P, Northern Dancer, or Seattle Slew.

On this thread & the "Jump Start" thread you hear a lot of how some of these 1st crop stallions deserves a 100% or more increase when the stallion comes up with a big horse or two. Stallions like St. Ballado, Dynaformer started out far more modest and worked their way up by elevated performance in their subsequent crops.

As long as people are willing to panic buy into these stallions, farms will be able to profit from the "Our Emblems".

As soon as I get 35K together I'm going to send a mare to Our Emblem. Oh, I forgot he no longer stands at Taylor Made. Well, anyone know any vans going to Brazil?

[henthorn]

Hype sells! Rahy is a known quantity by now, not likely full of any surprises. But early sire success for Johannesburg can tweak the hopes and dreams for a season or two, so as long as people are willing to pay outlandish prices before a sire has proven he's not worth it, it's one time a stallion syndicate can make some money. The dollars usually dry up pretty fast for most of these early success stories.

[Rokeby Forever]

It always seemed to me that successful first crop sires had good mare selection to help them get off to a good start. Then when the mania sets in, the sire gets overloaded books and his numbers drop way off.

Distorted Humor has worked his way up well into the "elite" ranks. It's interesting that so many of his good sons were gelded early in his career because nobody thought of Distorted Humors as stallion prospects. Now, people obviously do.

[Maven]

Never underestimate the Busanda line of La Troienne. Bernstein retired to very little fanfare, but his stud fee has gone up and his foals are doing fair on the track. Sky Mesa and Wiseman's Ferry are two Busanda line stallions who will have their first foals hit the track this year.

[Rokeby Forever]

Henthorn wrote, "Rahy is a known quantity by now, not likely full of any surprises."

Yeah, what a shame, huh? He always seems to come up with tough, durable, top class offspring. Why breed to him when I can pay $5,000 more for a date with Johannesburg?

Dreaming Of Anna (by Rahy) and Octave (by Unbridled's Song) ran 1-2 in the BC Filly Juvie. Which of the two would you expect to see as the favorite in the Coaching Club American Oaks - run 6 months from now?

[Rokeby Forever]

Sky Mesa? He was never the same after the Hopeful, and these Storm Cat broodies (broodies of Sky Mesa, Jump Start, Buddha...) don't seem to produce the soundest of foals.