Tribal Rule

Discussion and analysis of thoroughbred stallions.

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Keith
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Tribal Rule is a young sire

Postby Keith » Sun Jan 07, 2007 7:37 am

Tribal Rule has only one crop to race where Iron Cat has had five year olds run this past year so how can you really compare stats between the two. Yes Iron Cat is more of a proven horse where Tribal Rule's foals still have yet to reach their full potential. I am not saying he is a better sire than Iron Cat but you can't really compare statistics on Tribal Rule's two year old crop versus Iron Cat three crops to race.

Keith

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Postby louis finochio » Sun Jan 07, 2007 7:57 am

Do the mares make or break a stallion or does the stallion make or break his mares?

Both Successful Appeal and Gibson County outbred their mares by a country mile.
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Winnie
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Postby Winnie » Sun Jan 07, 2007 12:40 pm

Yes Keith I understand. I guess I am looking at it from the stand point that Tribal Rule being owned by the Wygods, who have some of the best mares around in Ca. Hasn't proven his mares yet, where Iron Cat was bred to mediocre mares...seeing that Creston Farm breed their best mares to Anzian.

Trible Rule will have to prove much more to me before i would breed to him, that's all.

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Sysonby
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Postby Sysonby » Sun Jan 07, 2007 1:09 pm

But basic mathematics are getting in the way of comparing the two: Tribal Rule has only had one year (and not really a complete year) to make money on the track. The CI of the mares that were bred to him probably represents careers of other horses that ran for multiple years and had more chances to make more money. That's why the AEI/CI comparison doesn't work for young horses.

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Postby Winnie » Sun Jan 07, 2007 4:37 pm

It would be interesting to see other sires and how well they did their first year.

I might do a search on our state and see if Tribal Rule fits the norm for first year sires?

I hope you guys are right :)

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Postby Winnie » Sun Jan 07, 2007 7:08 pm

Ok did a little studying on this and for sires (I only looked at those who started and stayed in Ca.) who have proven to be successful at stud in the long run, here are some stats in their first crop. I could only go as far back as 1999 since I had no earlier directories.

IRON CAT 23 foals, 8 starters, 7 winners. AEI 2.08 COMP 0.92
1 SW Trapper earned $151,000 in one just one year.

SWISS YODELER 45 foals, 24 starters, 12 winners. AEI 1.76 COMP 1.12. with 2 SW $98,636 and $73,173. 4 SPW $71,837, $47,840, $34,590.

BENCHMARK 47 foals, 21 starters, 10 winners. AEI 1.15 COMP 0.93. with 4 SPW earning $68,394, $62,877, $36,810.

UNUSUAL HEAT 1st crop 15 foals, 2 starters, 2 winners.
AEI 2.32 COMP 0.92
2nd Crop 44 foals, 20 starters, 14 winners. AEI 1.73, COMP 0.85

OLD TOPPER 36 foals, 15 starters, 7 winners. AEI 1.35 COMP 0.95
1 SW $94,560 2 SPW.

MEMO 24 foals, 5 starters, 4 winners. AEI 2.53 COMP 1.221 SW $57,438 and 1 SPW $62,800

BERTRANDO 2nd crop didn't have 1st.
116 foals, 46 starters, 21 winners. AEI 1.22 COMP 1.913 SW and 4 SPW.

Interestingly BARTOK and SOFT GOLD both only had 3 starters their first year...all of which were black type. One might think ok they got lucky their first year and these horses showed they moved their mares up tremendously. But they have continued to move their mares up each year, to me showing how important AEI and COMP stats are.
Last edited by Winnie on Sun Jan 07, 2007 7:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Postby Rokeby Forever » Sun Jan 07, 2007 7:12 pm

I think Kelly Kip is a good value at $2,500....lots of speed for those Cal Bred sprints.

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Postby Winnie » Sun Jan 07, 2007 7:16 pm

Kelly Kip is $4,000...unless you know something I don't know.

I was told he fits my mare, yet I am not sure how marketable he would be? :?

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Postby Winnie » Mon Jan 08, 2007 10:16 pm

I am surprised, I was expecting some kind of arguement :?

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Re: Tribal Rule

Postby BJ » Fri Jan 12, 2007 5:44 pm

Laro wrote:I went to BOTH farms, I was traveling around to see those horses. There only a couple hours away from each other. Its interesting to hear worries about stats on such a new stallion. Came Home's first runner won its first time out, making him 100% winners from runners. The babies look good, he's had some Stakes horses, and they are selling well, what more do you want? With that as your only criteria A.P Indy and Storm Cat both are bad sires.


Wish CTBA would do the Stallion Tour again. It's hard getting people to do that trek. Been trying to visit all the Central Cal farms for a while, including to just visit my mares...who I haven't seen since March. :(

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Re: Tribal Rule

Postby Sierra » Fri Jan 12, 2007 7:29 pm

BJ wrote:Wish CTBA would do the Stallion Tour again. It's hard getting people to do that trek. Been trying to visit all the Central Cal farms for a while, including to just visit my mares...who I haven't seen since March. :(


The CTBA just had a Northern California stallion tour, and the next one is scheduled soon for the San Diego area. Maybe you can put in a request for the Central Coast farms next.

(From the CTBA website):

CTBA Stallion Tour Feb. 3

ARCADIA, Calif. (Dec. 28, 2006) – The California Thoroughbred Breeders Association will conduct a stallion tour to five Southern California farms on Feb. 3.

The tour will visit Vessels Stallion Farm in Bonsall, Valley Creek Farm in Valley Center, Irish Oaks in Valley Center, Ballena Vista Farm in Ramona and EA Ranches in Santa Ysabel.

Among the stallions standing at these farms are In Excess, Jackpot, Momentum and Quick Action at Vessels; Indian Country and Muqtarib at Valley Creek; Bouccaneer at Irish Oaks; Beau Genius, Deputy Commander and Sea of Secrets at Ballena Vista; and Defy Logic, Game Plan, Massive, Soul of the Matter and Turkoman at EA Ranches.

The tour will leave San Luis Rey Downs by charter bus at 8 a.m. The cost is $20. For reservations, contact Debbie Winick at 626-445-7800 ext. 247 or email to [email protected].

BJ
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Postby BJ » Fri Jan 12, 2007 9:36 pm

Thanks Sierra, for the farm tour info.

That's odd, I usually get the invites on those things. :? Hmmm...I've already been to most of those farms...My area. Irish Oaks is a new one, though.

Winnie...

re: Iron Cat...
I'm told his babies are best not raced until 3. The ones that wait, make the money. :wink:

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Sysonby
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Postby Sysonby » Sat Jan 13, 2007 8:10 am

Winnie are those stats from their first crop and first year (so you are comparing apples to apples) or are these stats from their first year after those horses have had the chance to run three or more years?

Time can equal money. Let's say I have a Tribal Rule 2 year old of last year who earned $20,000 on the track. He goes on to do well and banks $100,000 after three years running. That's going to change Tribal Rule's stats potentially. Moreover if that TR has a half brother who had essentially the same career and you stopped the clock at the first year, you can say "look the TR earn less than a quarter of the foals by other stallions bred to that mare."

Now I am being a little simplistic but in my opinion, you have to allow at least 5 crops to the races before the CI figure is meaningful because then you are comparing apples to apples.

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tribal rule

Postby tbrace » Mon Jan 15, 2007 12:15 pm

I heard that Riveredge was offering some breeders a free breed to Tribal Rule, if they bred another good mare at the farm to someone else. Anyone confirm this?

If it is so, why would they be pushing him that hard? Wouldn't it devalue his offspring and his breed fees?

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Sysonby
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Re: tribal rule

Postby Sysonby » Mon Jan 15, 2007 6:34 pm

tbrace wrote:I heard that Riveredge was offering some breeders a free breed to Tribal Rule, if they bred another good mare at the farm to someone else. Anyone confirm this?

If it is so, why would they be pushing him that hard? Wouldn't it devalue his offspring and his breed fees?


Perhaps they are trying to compete with Momentum?