Stud fees

[kimberley mine]

The Keeneland sale went well yet alot of folks lost money trying to raise foals. Look at the medians and very few stallions produced a profit. Many analysts have suggested stud fees are too high. I went to several stud farms that hinted fees were coming down.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a 25% average fee cut from the peak of the market (The Green Monkey, 2006 season) to the 2010 breeding season. I don't think this is related to the sheiks and coolmore so much as it is related to the ability to make a profit. After TGM, the pinhookers started moving towards lower-priced yearlings. Now, a year later, the yearling market has noticeably cooled. For the nice horses in the first week of KeeSep, sales were brisk, but after that the bottom fell out. Follow the money and you'll see that stud fees HAVE to be next.

Some horses would stay at/near their current fees (such as AP Indy). That said, I predict that this trend of pricing 1st year stallions at six figures is over, unless they are so spectacular that their poop is gold-plated. I also predict that stallions whose fees are based on market speculation rather than racetrack performance will see their fees come crashing back to earth. (Yes, Forestry and War Chant, I'm talking about YOU.) I also expect that book sizes will come down somewhat as owners of lesser mares are driven out of the market (or into regional markets) by cost.

Macho Uno should be a GREAT deal if you have a nice Green Dancer mare.

[bdw0617]

you know what..I can't think of ONE war chant baby off the top of my head

[Tesio]

War Chant is certainly failing in regards to the expectations of Three Chimney's and his initial fee. Seems like they did the same thing with Point Given. Both good race horses but, with their very high initial fees, they were up against it from the start.

Forestry is a joke at $125K. Yes, he gets nice looking babies. How much can you spend on a pretty but unsound horse? The Green Monkey might have taken the luster off this way overpriced stallion.

I would agree with the assessment of Macho Uno. Should be tremendous value.

Unbridled's Song $200K, Elusive Quality $100K, Awesome Again $125K, El Prado $125K etc. A correction is definitely needed at these levels.

[bdw0617]

Forestry is a joke at $125K.

yikes.. he started THAT high? I think he's overpriced now.

Elusive Quality $100K,

nice for a 1 horse career

El Prado $125K

I can see this... not necessarily agree with it.. but he has thrown some very very talented runners.

Awesome Again $125K

with Ghoszapper, he can go another 5 years without throwing a runner and this fee won't be questioned. HOwever he has done more than 1 horse obviously.

Point Given

I don't know what Point givens fee is, but I like Point Given alot. My fav 3YO.. I have no idea why, he just is, is Air Commander, a Point given colt. another of his, Sealy Hill, just won the Canadian triple crown for fillies (I'm not even going to attempt to massacre that word)

[Monmouth Matt]

The Macho Man is solid value at that price. his vistory in the Mass. Handicap was a tribute to his ability....shut off and able to reaccelerate to win. I have to watch that race again....it was visually impressive at the time.

[Tesio]

Forestry stands for $125K now, he was $75K in 2005, not sure where he started. I am sure that the fee rose drastically, but unsure as to why.

Point Given started at $100K in 2002 and is now $30K, which is not totally unreasonable.

Elusive Quality started at $10K in 1999 I believe. One horse took him to $100K. Not sure why, as Darley is usually quite conservative with their prices.

I agree Awesome Again is a quality stallion, his 2007 fee was actually $150K. There is not a lot of room for profit at this level. Cut this fee in half and I'd be on line to breed. I feel the same about El Prado.

Take Smart Strike, his fee will probably go to $100K maybe $125k for 2008. Still great value when compared to these others.

[madelyn]

FuPeg is another one, still overpriced at $75K.

[bdw0617]

fu peg's fee will never drop.

[Tesio]

I agree 100%. Fu Peg should stand for about half that price.

[Maven]

I said before and I'll say it again, I think this crop of incoming stallions is going to be a very solid crop and there's going to be some very reasonable fees, especially for the middle market breeders.

I think we will see a correction in the top market. It only bears to reason with the recent sale.

And concerning Macho Uno... terrific family but there were certainly big questions needing (and still needing) to be answered both commercially and from an obvious breed to race angle. Holy Bull is a very questionable sire of sires and it's what's kept me off of him.

[FOS]

hi Tesio...hi bdw0617...hi madelyn...hi all

Forestry stands for $125K now, he was $75K in 2005, not sure where he started.

He started at $50,000. To my way of thinking, Forestry is SIGNIFICANTLY overpriced at $125k. The way I see it, unless his stud fee is reduced dramatically...he's not worthy serious consideration (for those paying retail, or anywhere near it, to get to him). Why do I have my doubts that Mr Jones and Team Taylor Made would agree?

FuPeg is another one, still overpriced at $75K.

Maybe an understatement.

Elusive Quality started at $10K in 1999 I believe. One horse took him to $100K.

nice for a 1 horse career

Not exactly. I might argue that EQ's stud fee didn't move from $10,000 to the 6 figure level as a result of one horse...as you both indicated.

Consider this...Elusive Quality sired no less than 11 stakes winners from his first crop (which numbered 76 named foals), including G1 winner and Highweighted 2-yo (in France) Elusive City.

No less than 9 stakes-winners, including dual classic-winner and eclipse honoree Smarty Jones, emerged from Elusive Quality's second crop...which numbered 87 named foals.

Quite impressive, don't you think? EQ sired a G1 winning Highweight (in France) from his first crop and a G1-Kentucky Derby and G1-Preakness winner, who was awarded an eclipse, from his second crop.

Elusive Quality's third crop (foals of 2002) numbered a mere 34 named foals (supposedly MRLS related).

Clearly Elusive Quality has not matched his early accomplishments/stats, including coming up with another Highweight (such as Elusive City) or another Champion (ala Smarty Jones)...but when looking at the names of the dam's sires of many of his early stakes-winners, it might offer some insight as to the quality of mares (in general) that were made available to him early on. Think about it, EQ sired stakes winners (including some graded) from mares by...Smile, Marju, Taj Alriyadh, Kentucky Jazz, TV Commercial, Palace Music, Ascot Knight, Staff Writer, American Legion, Desert Wine, Mi Selecto, Once Wild etc. Arguably, not exactly broodmare sire names that you might regularly expect to see on Leading Broodmare Sire lists.

Looking ahead...I'd expect that EQ's future is quite bright. Why? For starters, the quality (and quantity, if you will) of support that breeders have offered EQ (subsequent to the success of his first two crops to race), coupled with the significant support and opportunity that Darley seems to have committed (in recent years) to their now proven sire, is likely to benefit Elusive Quality.

Although EQ's early accomplishments arguably justified the significant boost in his stud fee (into the six-figure level), this is a game of what have you done for me lately...and EQ must justify his stud fee, if he is to continue to get the kind of outside support he's recived in recent years.

Elusive Quality Aside...what about Distorted Humor?

He stood for $7,500 at the outset, and shares were available at $35,000 per. Now there was an opportunity, don't you think?

Respectfully

[Rokeby Forever]

El Prado $125K
I can see this... not necessarily agree with it.. but he has thrown some very very talented runners.

Um...no. He's not market friendly and it'll take a lot of racing out of an El Prado to earn back that $125K. He'll sire a nice horse, but that price is way too high.

[bdw0617]

In 05 alone, he sired 3 of top 50 race horses in the world

[madelyn]

I heard that Point Given's fee is being lowered, I think to $15K.

[Maven]

If it is lowered to 15k I think he'll be one of the better deals out there. He gets some very good race horses. He's turning out to be a good breed to race stallion.