Pavarotti to Hartley/De Renzo

Discussion and analysis of thoroughbred stallions.

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Tesio
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Postby Tesio » Tue Nov 13, 2007 1:20 pm

Brogers is correct in stating that these forums give people the right to criticise. They also give people the right to express their positive opinions on the stallions standing stud.

There are many stallions being retired to stud based on poor reasoning. Simply standing a stallion with the selling point being 'sold for X amount as a yearling or 2yo' doesn't do it for me.

I love Distorted Humor as a stallion (who doesn't?). But the fact that his fee was raised YET AGAIN this year to $300K is simply GREED. Smart Strike is arguably every bit as successful with his race horses yet he stands for half that figure. Why? Because Smart Strike's babies aren't real flashy and don't bring the prices other high priced stallions' offspring do. Why are service fees so entirely based on sales figures? Shouldn't a stallion's fee be based on his ability to sire race horses?

I suspect the reason farms feel the need to skyrocket fees based on sales results is so they can take some of that profit margin. Again, based on greed. Raising Distorted Humor's fee so quickly puts the squeeze on the breeders. These are the people supporting the stallions these farms stand. Doesn't seem very fair and equitable. He is truly an OUTSTANDING stallion but couldn't Winstar have eeked out enough of a profit standing him for $225K for one more year at least?

The reason many people on this forum are critical is partly based on these big money-making farms' greed. They squeeze any kind of profit the breeder might be lucky enough to make.

Mr brogers, I am not super critical of the stallions standing stud these days. I am, however, critical of the price structure. TM stands 2 stallions for 6 figure fees. Both are nice stallions.

Unbridled's Song gets some nice runners. He does, however, sire a very brittle horse. He gets a very nice book of mares with a CI of around 2.70. He doesn't even come close to improving this book with an AEI of 1.99, in fact he drags them down by more than 25%. Stallions standing in that 'range' who do improve (or come close) their mares are abundant. Also, OVER 50% of his offspring fail to reach $35K in earnings. Where is the value here?

The other stallion standing for 6 figures performs even worse. His CI is 3.05 with an AEI of 1.88! He has exactly 0 Gr 1 winners in 2007 and only 3 graded stakes winners. 148 runners with only 9 stakes winners. Again, I fail to see the value here! Yes, we can hope to make a profit selling the babies. However, with this kind of performance, how long can that last? Street Cry stood for $50K last year. He EARNED his $100K fee for 2008. Check his numbers.

Alot of these prices are based on one thing. GREED.

It doesn't affect me that Mr Sekiguchi stands stud. I don't have to breed to him. I would like the option of breeding to some stallions but cannot because the fee is totally unjustified. There are many overhyped and overpriced stallions out there, I don't want it to seem like I am picking on TM solely.

Maybe the breed is lessening because we are breeding too many unworthy mares. That has got to have something to do with it as well. If there were less mares than the stud farms wouldn't need to seek out 'unworthy' stallions. Curlin might not have the greatest female family, but he is one helluva race horse. He's earned the right to stand stud by being brilliant on the track. Selling for millions as a yearling earns the horse nothing. It just helps to raise their stallions fees.

Less greed on the farms' part might lead to less criticism.

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Postby bdw0617 » Tue Nov 13, 2007 1:26 pm

the key is to take what you need and throw out what you don't need or don't consider to be necessary.

The fact is, Jazil IS small, Laywer Ron's dam WAS bought for $500 dollars, these are things as a breeder I would think you would want to know.

You can, in any business, never have too much information.

While you said that you don't like all the negativeness surrounding new stallions, Every stallion can't be a love fest either, all necessary information regarding a stallion should be posted, rather someone believes it's good or bad.

There are many stallions being retired to stud based on poor reasoning.


very true


Calling my opinion "morinic" is not very nice, and not called for.

I have two takes on this situtation. The first being, the only reason he is standing at stud is because he was a 2.25 million dollar yearling that was not a claimer... a sales price does not justify a horse as being a stud, regardless of how low the price of the stallion is

the second being, although he hasn't ever won a Graded stakes race, I honestly believe that he could have, at the very worst, PLACED in a grade 1 sometime next year. I've seen all his races, again, he's not a BAD horse, but with all the studs we have today, the only thing he brings to the table is a nice pedigree and a sales price. He's from what I understand, not very sound, I'm not going to SAY he's unsound because i have never seen him.

For that sales price, even in florida you can find some very quality studs. Graded stakes winning studs with similar pedigrees.
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Postby madelyn » Tue Nov 13, 2007 1:45 pm

The fact, if it is even true, that Lawyer Ron's dam was sold for $500 does NOT make her a five hundred dollar mare. She threw Lawyer Ron, for God's sake. I DO know that she RNA'd for the minimum, $1,000 bid, when she went through as a broodmare prospect. Price and value, in broodmares, are seldom related. It DOES make the genius that GOT her for $500 look positively brilliant and the seller who sold her for $500 look, well, shortsighted at the very least. She just sold, in foal to Distorted Humor, for $975K.
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Postby chicago78 » Tue Nov 13, 2007 1:48 pm

Pavarotti's a great looking A.P. Indy stakes winner out of a Woodman mare. He was bred by Mt. Brilliant farm and Will Farish. He won 3 of his 6 starts, and was placed in 2 others. His half brother by Tabasco CAt is a halfway decent young stud in Florida, now Louisiana. That alone qualifies him to be a stud in Florida, New York, California, or even Kentucky for that matter. His auction price really doesn't have anything to do with it.

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Postby bdw0617 » Tue Nov 13, 2007 2:21 pm

madelyn wrote:The fact, if it is even true, that Lawyer Ron's dam was sold for $500 does NOT make her a five hundred dollar mare. She threw Lawyer Ron, for God's sake. I DO know that she RNA'd for the minimum, $1,000 bid, when she went through as a broodmare prospect. Price and value, in broodmares, are seldom related. It DOES make the genius that GOT her for $500 look positively brilliant and the seller who sold her for $500 look, well, shortsighted at the very least. She just sold, in foal to Distorted Humor, for $975K.


even a clock that's wrong is right twice a day

sheriff's deputy threw curlin... I don't see people beating down the doors to by her weanling by Saint Liam.. in fact they basically told her to PLeASE keep it.

spectacular threw spectacular bid, and threw absolutly nothing resembling an allowence horse afterwards or before. does that make her a bad dam?

what it shows me is that every horse is capable of producing a world class horse, but the difference between the great mares like better than honor, toussad (sp), set them free and the like and mares like sherrif's deputy, Donation, etc, is the ability to replcate thoose types of results.


every case is different, and i"m not saying you have to be a million dollar broodmare to product a champion. in fact I probably should not have used that price as an example.

One thing I can say about lawyer ron's family is that tey are as hard knocking as hard knocking gets. But going back almost 50 years, I see nothing but low level claimers. There was not alot of hope for her because her family had a history of not producing. she happened to find a gold nugget.

maybe the full brother to Lawyer ron will be a runner. Maybe. but that's a million dollar gamble I"m not willing to take



genius that GOT her for $500 look positively brilliant


if that guy knew that he would get a world class runner out of her, he would make Tesio look like an amature
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Postby pfrsue » Tue Nov 13, 2007 2:37 pm

what it shows me is that every horse is capable of producing a world class horse


Whoa, that was an exceptionally gross generalization.

On the other hand... *looks at the pinto PMU rescue mare in the paddock and rubs hands thoughtfully.* "Hello, Sheik Mohammad? Have I got a mare for you!"

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Postby bdw0617 » Tue Nov 13, 2007 2:45 pm

chicago78 wrote:Pavarotti's a great looking A.P. Indy stakes winner out of a Woodman mare. He was bred by Mt. Brilliant farm and Will Farish. He won 3 of his 6 starts, and was placed in 2 others. His half brother by Tabasco CAt is a halfway decent young stud in Florida, now Louisiana. That alone qualifies him to be a stud in Florida, New York, California, or even Kentucky for that matter. His auction price really doesn't have anything to do with it.


he is a non graded stakes winner, who couldn't beat air commander or Albertus Maximus out in southern california

so every half brother who has a good sire should stand at stud is what you are saying? they can, that's fine and good, but you only hit on HALF my point.

I never said he SHOULDN'T stand at stud, I said, twice, I think they sold themselves short because he can at least place in a grade 1 or 2 next year.

you can stand how you want, that doesn't mean you are guranteed a full book.

You still have to convince breeders there is value in this stud. if you see value in a 6500 stallion who has not won, or even RAN in a graded stakes, and how from the sounds of it is very unsound, knock yourself out.

Trippi, Slew city Slew, Honour and Glory, Deputy Commander, Outflanker, Albert the great and put it back offer a hell of alot more value than Pavoritti. and pavoritti does nothing or offers nothing but "i'm an AP Indy!!"

even new unproven stallions like Rey de Cafe, at 5k is a grade 3 winner, with good confirmation and GREAT bloodlines

you like AP Indy? Why not Leading the Parade, at 3500 down in florida, half the price, basically getting the same thing, non graded stakes winning AP indy's



even on unproven stallions, I'll take my chances on stallions like
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Postby bdw0617 » Tue Nov 13, 2007 2:47 pm

pfrsue wrote:
what it shows me is that every horse is capable of producing a world class horse


Whoa, that was an exceptionally gross generalization.

On the other hand... *looks at the pinto PMU rescue mare in the paddock and rubs hands thoughtfully.* "Hello, Sheik Mohammad? Have I got a mare for you!"


too funny!!!
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Postby spex4me » Tue Nov 13, 2007 3:03 pm

I'm going to chime in with the amatuer voice. I bash prices, yes. In researching a great many of (imo) overpriced studs, I have more times than not seen very little headway in the form of offspring who even earn 20% of that fee. Or if said offspring does do well it is usually followed with some sort of breakdown that either limits it's abilities to race well or even race again at all. To me that is extremely frustrating.

If all these breedings to all of these so called magnificent specimens of Thoroughbred stock resulted in a consistency of sorts I may be more impressed by the breeders. Are there some awesome stallions out there, heck yes. I like to look at a stallion and see a high percentage of winners in his crops of foals that were indeed raced. I don't even mind the whole unraced bit as long as the progeny backs up the sire. And for that matter the dam. Dam owners are just as responsible for negative attitudes. Sometimes the reasoning is as silly as I want blue eyed babies so I am going to marry(or just plain reproduce with) the first blue eyed man I find, even though I have brown eyes.

Where are the bigger pictures at in most scenarios? What about breeding a horse that is ALREADY quality to another horse that is quality. I have a personal miff with ppl who breed crooked legged horses (and I mean bad) to straight clean legs trying to correct that fault..... IT IS NOT ALWAYS GOING TO CORRECT!!! How about breeding clean legs to clean legs ? Or racers to racers that made it past their 4 year old campaign successfully?!?

I have a friend who has intrests in Australia racing. She chuckled at the mention of less stallions. She said while yes there are less stallions it's because they don't look to the fashionable flavors of the moment as much as we do. That comparitively the stud stock of Australia, all things combined beats much of the U S's with a stick. Much not all, as she also concludes that there are some very nice current stallions. I like Distorted Humor but I think his fee is crazy high, she thinks it is proportionate to what he is and what he will become. She's pretty deep in Aussie racing but maybe one of the members here from that region can chime in on that.

I am sorry I grew up watching racing since I can remember in the late 70's and something happened in the mid 80's that just seemed to send racing off in a different direction. Hell it may have even been the syndication of the Bid, (my personal hero/favorite), as even I begrudginly admit that even when that happened my young brain was "What in God's name are these people doing????"..... of course I would come to know all about materialism as I grew up.

I guess long rant short is we need to reevaluate our breeding practices. Just because a colt won a handful of races and then had to be retired at 3.5 does not a GOOD stallion make.... at least not in my mind. I want to see racing of 6 year olds become the norm, for breeders to really evaluate EVERYTHING about a potetial mating before doing it , for less breakdowns of the aspiring youngsters, and less news of this or that drug found in so and so's barn. What happened along the way?? It seems for every 2 steps forward the industry takes 3 back....... as I said I am just a newbie to the behind the scenes but that's how I see it.
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Postby Mahubah » Tue Nov 13, 2007 5:36 pm

To get back to Pavarotti, I'd certainly want to know why he hasn't been racing or even working since mid-July. What it suggests to me is that he hurt himself during his hard effort in the Round Table, and more likely a tendon injury since fractures usually make some news; it's also, I think, more difficult to determine the prognosis of a tendon injury early unless it's severe enough to make the answer obvious. If the horse is basically correct in make, moves well, and isn't heavy-topped, I wouldn't necessarily hold an injury incurred in the heat of battle against him; any horse can take a bad step, particularly in a long and grueling stretch drive. Still, it is a shame that he won't get the chance to step up next year -- he could have matured into quite a nice horse. Harley/De Renzo will be having its stallion show December 1, so I'm hoping to get the chance to look at him then.
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Postby Tesio » Tue Nov 13, 2007 6:19 pm

Yes, back to Pavarotti. He did run a nice race in the Round Table. His one bad outing was over a sloppy track which he might not have cared for. I don't think he had a serious injury coming out of the Round Table based on his subsequent breezes over the track in August. But who knows?

His race record was certainly not overly impressive. I can think of MANY 3yos who have done more this year.

His female lines are okay based on his being a half to Snow Ridge. He also has about 9 other siblings who have done nothing, including a $1.8 million filly by Lemon Drop Kid who is now 5 and unraced.

My point is if he was not purchased for $2.5 million as a yearling and he was not purchased by the Coolmore gang, would he be standing stud next year and comanding $6,500? It must be noted he is going to the same operation from which the same Coolmore gang spent $16 million for a donkey. Coincidence? Probably not. Hartley and Derenzo would probably do WHATEVER those guys asked at this point.

Also, that half brother is a Gr 1 winner and multiple Gr 2 winner.

He stands for $5,000!!!

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Postby bdw0617 » Tue Nov 13, 2007 6:28 pm

Tesio wrote:Yes, back to Pavarotti. He did run a nice race in the Round Table. His one bad outing was over a sloppy track which he might not have cared for. I don't think he had a serious injury coming out of the Round Table based on his subsequent breezes over the track in August. But who knows?

His race record was certainly not overly impressive. I can think of MANY 3yos who have done more this year.

His female lines are okay based on his being a half to Snow Ridge. He also has about 9 other siblings who have done nothing, including a $1.8 million filly by Lemon Drop Kid who is now 5 and unraced.

My point is if he was not purchased for $2.5 million as a yearling and he was not purchased by the Coolmore gang, would he be standing stud next year and comanding $6,500? It must be noted he is going to the same operation from which the same Coolmore gang spent $16 million for a donkey. Coincidence? Probably not. Hartley and Derenzo would probably do WHATEVER those guys asked at this point.

Also, that half brother is a Gr 1 winner and multiple Gr 2 winner.

He stands for $5,000!!!



you don't consider getting beat in 2 maiden races by Air commander and Albertus Maximus, the former could not stay with cobolt blue and albertus maximums isn't a graded stakes calibur horse.

he beat Prom Shoes, who for better or for worse, highlight of his career is ALMOST beating Sightseeing in a grade 2. He beat Dominican who is a "poly specialist", who seems to like only Kentucky poly. it was a pretty good race, I saw the race, but like you said, I've seen better records
\

My point is if he was not purchased for $2.5 million as a yearling and he was not purchased by the Coolmore gang, would he be standing stud next year and comanding $6,500?


No, which is my point as well. one of them at least.


another thing, why in the hell is'nt Ashford standing him? am i missing something? Is this payment for the green monkey or something?
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Postby Tesio » Tue Nov 13, 2007 7:16 pm

Just my point bdw.

For $16 million those Ocala guys will do whatever Coolmore wants. Heck, they are standing a listed stake winner for $6,500 when his MUCH more successful half bro is standing for $5,000.

He's not at Ashford because he's not worthy.

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Postby Rokeby Forever » Tue Nov 13, 2007 7:38 pm

Tesio wrote:He's not at Ashford because he's not worthy.

And Grade II/early washup Chapel Royal is?

Since there's such a shortage of stallions, I wonder if there are plans to stand Fusaichi Samurai in 2008. He must hold the record for the longest workout tab between races - shouldn't that be reason enough to stand him?
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Postby bdw0617 » Tue Nov 13, 2007 7:44 pm

Rokeby Forever wrote:
Tesio wrote:He's not at Ashford because he's not worthy.

And Grade II/early washup Chapel Royal is?


pavrotti never even attempted to run in a graded stakes.

and I think his pedigree is overyped. it's not THAT great. it's good. it's stud worthy. but he isn't the second coming of Empire maker or anything
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