First Crop Stallions of 2008

Rokeby Forever · Postby **Rokeby Forever** » Thu Feb 14, 2008 3:42 pm

AscotStud wrote:The biggest flop that I see on that list is Action This Day. I have a hard time thinking he will make it based on 1 race that I used as a toss out when evaluating the field in their future races.

That's how I feel about Friend's Lake - he won an AWFUL Florida Derby. AP Indy has a couple of good sons at stud, a lot of useful sons standing stud, and a bunch of sons that shouldn't be at stud. I think for $15K, there are stallions that offer a lot more value.

I don't think he brings a lot of speed to the table, so unless he's been bred to speedy type mares, I don't see him getting off to a fast start. Not many of the AP Indys do.

series · Postby **series** » Thu Feb 14, 2008 4:41 pm

Three Lion Heart yearlings from his first SH crop went through the New Zealand National Yearling sales recently. They didn't make the top sale (the 2-day, ~500 horse Premier) instead having to settle for the second tier but all sold for NZ$120,000 - $230,000. $230,000 was the sixth-top price of the Select sale, $200,000 was 11th.

By all accounts they were well put together with plenty of muscle and even against the progeny of uber-precocious Aussie stallions the one that stayed in NZ would go alright early.

I do worry about the sire line; Storm Bird was a nutter, Storm Cat wasn't as bad but isn't known for his soundness, stamina or sanity and Tale Of The Cat was the worst of both worlds (he only lasted one season at stud in NZ, from memory the reason he didn't come back was that he was self-mutilating). If the Lion Hearts are trainable I think they'll go alright.

Curlin · Postby **Curlin** » Thu Feb 14, 2008 10:22 pm

One California sire I am curious about is Redattore. Like Peace Rules, he won graded stakes on both turf and dirt. And he's a nice outcross to boot. I always got a kick out of Frank Lyons of TVG saying he looked like "new money." He is a real looker, won 15 of 32 starts from age 3 to 8, and from what I've gathered was one of Mandella's favorites. Come to think of it, he was one of my favorites too.

http://harrisfarms.com/stallions/redatorre/redatorlg.htm

AscotStud · Postby **AscotStud** » Fri Feb 15, 2008 1:01 am

So if you had a mare in Califonia who had a multiple stakes winner by Distorted Humor. Would you go to Radattore 3 years later???

I'm sorry, but a similar cross led to a mare owner shipping all the way down to Florida to breed to a son of Jules rather than look for the best match in Can or KY, Distorted Humor.

Sam · Postby **Sam** » Fri Feb 15, 2008 1:37 am

AscotStud wrote:So if you had a mare in Califonia who had a multiple stakes winner by Distorted Humor. Would you go to Radattore 3 years later???

I'm sorry, but a similar cross led to a mare owner shipping all the way down to Florida to breed to a son of Jules rather than look for the best match in Can or KY, Distorted Humor.

You're not serious, are you?

If someone sent a mare down to FL to breed to Peace Rules instead of going to Distorted Humor in KY, it's not because of the cross, it's because of the stud fee. Peace Rules is at $12,500. Distorted Humor is at $300k.

Distorted Humor's stud fee has gone up every single year since 2002. Then you could've bred to him for $20k. Now it cost 15x that amount.

He may be the best match on paper, but that doesn't mean he's the best fiscal match.... especially when his stud fee jumps $200k in 3 years.

AscotStud · Postby **AscotStud** » Fri Feb 15, 2008 12:58 pm

Sam,

I know that money comes into play, I guess what I was trying to say is that even if you don't go to the best match which may be too much. There has to be a better option. Nothing against Redattore or Peace Rules, but there has to be a better option for a nice mare.

Sam · Postby **Sam** » Fri Feb 15, 2008 1:13 pm

AscotStud wrote:I know that money comes into play, I guess what I was trying to say is that even if you don't go to the best match which may be too much. There has to be a better option. Nothing against Redattore or Peace Rules, but there has to be a better option for a nice mare.

Actually, it does sound like you have something against both stallions, Ascot. You make it sound as if they aren't worthy enough to be bred to this "nice mare."

Regardless, to say 'there has to be a better option' is merely your opinion. Without knowing the mare and being able to see the ped of the hypo foal, there's no way for anyone to say that Redatorre or Peace Rules is a bad match (unless they believe the two are bad stallions, period). There are more than a few people who believe in RF breeding. I'm not completely sold on the concept, but it could be something as simple as the mare contains a superior female that the breeder is looking to double up on and Peace Rules is the only horse that fits physically and is within his budget.

eta

Raise The Standard would be the RF mare in a case like this. There are three stallions to do that with: Street Cry, Best of the Best and Peace Rules. Street Cry and Best of the Best are both sons of Machiavellian (making them 3rd gen Prospectors) and Peace Rules is 4th gen Prospector.

Street Cry is at $100k, Peace Rules is at $12.5k and Best of the Best is at $5k. If you've a mare worth a $10-$15k stud fee and are trying to RF Raise The Standard, Peace Rules is the only option.

AscotStud · Postby **AscotStud** » Fri Feb 15, 2008 1:18 pm

All I'm saying is that if I had a mare who produced a MSW horse of over $500k I'm not driving the van past Kentucky to get to Peace Rules. No matter how much I have to spend.

Sam · Postby **Sam** » Fri Feb 15, 2008 1:26 pm

AscotStud wrote:All I'm saying is that if I had a mare who produced a MSW horse of over $500k I'm not driving the van past Kentucky to get to Peace Rules. No matter how much I have to spend.

See above edit.

So you'd rather over/under-breed the mare rather than send her to the stallion who best matches your goals as a breeder?

Whose the mare and who would you rather send her to?

AscotStud · Postby **AscotStud** » Fri Feb 15, 2008 1:40 pm

Yes and No,

I don't care what somebody or some number says. I would never send a mare who produced a very nice horse by Distorted Humor to Peace Rules and think I'm getting something comparable. I think Peace Rules is a fine horse for FL and might get a runner or two, but he's not for me. And I think you could do much better even if you were forced to stay in that price range.

AscotStud · Postby **AscotStud** » Fri Feb 15, 2008 1:46 pm

Not my mare, I'm not going to put her name up and discuss her.

I was making a point about people stretching a little too much to try to get something comparable based on sire line. We own and stand a Deputy Minister, I don't tell people hey if you can't get to Silver Deputy come to us it's almost the same.

Sam · Postby **Sam** » Fri Feb 15, 2008 2:04 pm

AscotStud wrote:Yes and No,

I don't care what somebody or some number says. I would never send a mare who produced a very nice horse by Distorted Humor to Peace Rules and think I'm getting something comparable. I think Peace Rules is a fine horse for FL and might get a runner or two, but he's not for me. And I think you could do much better even if you were forced to stay in that price range.

So again I ask, who would you breed her to? Who do you think is the 'better' option?

Obviously not Distorted Humor since he's now a $300k stud and it seems pretty clear the owner didn't wish to go that high since they went to a $12.5k stallion. A son of DH? Well, that leaves:

Any Given Saturday ($40,000)
Da Stoops ($10,000)
Flower Alley ($25,000)
It's No Joke ($7,500)
Sharp Humor ($12,500)

All of them are unproven stallions like Peace Rules.

Considering they went to Peace Rules at $12,500... that tells me their only KY options would be Da Stoops and Sharp Humor. If the mare carries a line of Prospector close (and I would have to assume she does if Best of the Best wasn't considered an option) then Sharp Humor is out. That leaves Da Stoops. Eh... Peace Rules is the better option, IMO. Especially if they are trying to RF Raise the Standard.

AscotStud · Postby **AscotStud** » Fri Feb 15, 2008 2:06 pm

I would go another direction instead of breeding to a son of Jules just to get back to Forty Niner.

no Mr. P at all in the pedigree, the foal in question is now 2 so those horses were not an option at the time.

Sam · Postby **Sam** » Fri Feb 15, 2008 2:16 pm

AscotStud wrote:I would go another direction instead of breeding to a son of Jules just to get back to Forty niner

Can you give a straight answer to a straight question? WHO WOULD YOU BREED TO? Who do you consider the 'better option'?

Fine, you won't go to a son of Jules... I just gave you 5 sons of Distorted Humor.

Most of us are trying to learn here... the only way to do that is for you to state why you believe what you do. Obviously you do have something against Peace Rules, regardless of what you say, so tell us who you feel is a better option.

Now the criteria you're setting seems to be a desire to breed to a Forty Niner. You have three options:

Distorted Humor ($300,000)
Ecton Park ($7,500)
Sunday Break ($7,500)

Obviously Distorted Humor is out so that leaves Ecton Park and Sunday Break. Since they went to a $12.5k stallion in Florida, that tells me they think a $7,500 stallion in KY is underbreeding.

So again I ask, you'd rather underbreed the mare than have her spend an extra day or two on a truck to get to a stallion who better fits your goals as a breeder?

eta

AscotStud wrote:no Mr. P at all in the pedigree, the foal in question is now 2 so those horses were not an option at the time.

Now I'm confused. So the foal that is now 2 is a Jules, not a Distorted Humor?

AscotStud · Postby **AscotStud** » Fri Feb 15, 2008 2:27 pm

If I had to go to a son of Forty Niner in 2005 it would have been Ecton Park. I have nothing against Peace Rules, I just think he will settle in as a $5k stallion and if I had the choice of either of them I would rather have an Ecton Park any day. So I don't see that as under breeding.

I don't have time to analyze a mare and come up with a mythical breeding 3 years ago just to justify why I don't think it made sense to go to Florida to chase a grandson of Forty Niner.

The mare was bred to stallions that ranged from $2k to $3.5k the 3 years after Distorted Humor they had no Mr. P in them.