Giant's Causeway gets top runners

[Intrinsic Worth]

It was a grade one win, but it didn't exactly take much talent to win that race. Of course Coolmore will spin it to make him look like the next Ghostzapper.

[Hold Your Peace]

You could title the thread - Mares in Giant's Causeway's book get top runners even when bred to Giant's Causeway. But they do even better when bred to other stallions (1.98 AEI for Giant's Causeway versus 3.55 CI for his mares).

[kimberley mine]

The Thoroughbred Times stallion directory has answered my prayer for divided stats between Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere foal crops.

In his Northern Hemisphere crops ONLY (Ireland-bred and US-bred), as of December 31, 2007, he had 507 foals, 373 runners (73%), 213 winners (42%), and 31 SW (6%). Those are respectable numbers, especially considering as of the end of 2007 he only had 4 crops to race, and despite him being a son of Storm Cat, his foals seem to want a little bit of time to mature.

Tease out the data a little bit more, and in his first two crops he had 10% and 9% stakes winners, respectively. Again, that could suggest that his foals might like time to mature, or it could mean that they are racing on the lawn in Europe (which makes sense, as his best runners do better in general on turf than dirt).

And tease it out a little more, and you might notice that seven of his graded stakes winners were bred in Ireland. Of them, four raced and won at Group level in Europe.

I wouldn't call him a failure or a donkey based on those interpretations of the data. What I would call him beyond a shadow of a doubt is a flop down under--but the genetic population and racing clime in Aus/NZ is so different from either Europe or the US that it's impossible to draw a direct comparison, and using AEI/CI stats that incorporate his down under foal crops gives a skewed and not very useful tool to measure his success (or lack thereof).

[DDT]

While not a graded event, Titan of Industry a son of GC is entered in the Stanton 55K stake at Delaware Park with Raj Maragh set to come in and ride. He looks very good in this spot, and might get a little price on him, 3-1 or better, will cross post in handicapping forum.

DDT

[soundfast]

Considering that the breed average is 48% winners and his stud fee is in the top 1% it is not exactly wonderful either. No matter what stats you use he is dragging his mares down. Stallions in the top 1% performance wise had 65% winners 84.5% runners and average earnings over $88K(Thoroughbred Times) Sadler's Wells had comparable mares ComSI 3.93 and his SI 4.27. So he upgrades his mares. E Dubai's first foals raced in 2004 and he is upgrading his mares. His SI 2.34 his ComSI 1.3. he has 2 less crops to race and a stud fee of only $15K. His sire Mr. Prospector really upgraded his mares SI 5.08 ComSI 3.58. Giant's Causeways sire Storm Cat did not upgrade his SI 4.22 ComSI 4.21.

[kimberley mine]

Considering that the breed average is 48% winners and his stud fee is in the top 1% it is not exactly wonderful either.

I don't disagree with you when you argue that he is not obviously improving his mares (like, say, Zabeel or E Dubai). I think that is a fair assessment. The key word here is "obviously." He may be doing better than it appears at first blush, and 10% and 9% stakes winners in his first two crops is a hell of a lot better than his overall numbers would suggest. I don't know. But that's how it looks.

BUT--look again, and remember how I said that using his AEI/CI and SI/ComSI is completely flawed because those numbers do not separate out his southern hemisphere foal crops.

Unless and until you can show me an AEI/CI or SI/ComSI calculation that only incorporates his crops sired in the US and Ireland, you cannot make a statistically valid assessment of how well or poorly he has done with his opportunity based on those numbers alone. Period. End of story. If you make that argument, I'll call you out on it, every single time.

Something else to consider:

Stallions in the top 1% performance wise had 65% winners 84.5% runners and average earnings over $88K(Thoroughbred Times)

I'd like to see which stallions you are using for the top 1% performance-wise, where they are based, where their offspring run, and what metric you are using for top 1% based on performance. Why? Purses in the UK and Europe are not as high as overseas, and that will skew the numbers of stallions who have more progeny in Europe than in the US. Same thing (only the other direction) with horses who stand in Japan.

And, just for the sake of clarity:

Sadler's Wells had comparable mares ComSI 3.93 and his SI 4.27. So he upgrades his mares.

According to today's Blood-Horse stallion register, Sadlers Wells has an AEI of of 3.29 and a CI of 3.36, so he's dragging his mares down too. Sadlers Wells also has a median earnings of just over $17,000 US. Yikes! Bad stallion? No, not really, just his foals were racing in Europe for lower purses.

The original title of this thread is "Giant's Causeway gets top runners." He does. That is an irrefutable fact--a Euro champion, an Italian highweight, a horse who should have had more consideration for US turf male champ but was shut out by west coast bias (Aragorn), a Queen's plate winner...those are not nags or donkeys. Whether he got them of his own merits or by riding the coattails of his mares is up to debate. I think he's a very useful horse in Europe, less useful in the US, and downright awful down under, and would provide much better value at, say, $75,000. But to argue that he's a flop of a stallion based on faulty statistics? Not gonna fly.

[soundfast]

The average sire statistics and the top 1% sires are Thoroughbred Times statistics not mine and they do not name the sires. If his stud fee was $75K it would still be higher than his average earnings per runner. The statistics are all from the Thoroughbred Times including Sadlers Wells SI and ComSI. You were the one saying he had 42% winners. I only quoted statistics I did not call him a flop you did. If he did so great in Europe why is he standing in the US?

[kimberley mine]

If his stud fee was $75K it would still be higher than his average earnings per runner.

At the elite levels, where speculation on yearling sales, the potential for an extremely high-class runner is high, and potential for a big-money colt to run and generate a big-money stallion syndicate, the average earnings of any particular stallion's foals rarely equals or exceeds his fee. Once you're in the commercial sphere, service fee related to average earnings isn't as useful a metric for judging stallion performance as percentage stakes winners, number of graded/group winners, etc. The usual rules don't apply.

The following elite stallions have (or recently have had) services fees that exceeds the average earnings of their runners:

Sadlers Wells, AP Indy, Storm Cat, Dynaformer, Awesome Again (who improves his mares), Kingmambo, Encosta de Lago, Redoute's Choice, Montjeu, and Galileo.

Compared to this the first four and Kingmambo, who all are at least 20 years old and have at least 10 crops to race, Giant's Causeway is underperforming with his NH-sired crops having an average earnings of just about $66k. His NH-sired crop earnings are not that far off what Galileo and Montjeu's foals are earning, and they are closer to him in age. If he is, as I suspect, siring horses that run better when they're older, one would expect to see his average earnings creep up over time.

And FWIW, the following elite stallions have average earnings that exceeds their service fee:

Seeking the Gold, Cozzene (his highest fee I can recall is $80k), Broad Brush (highest fee was private and around $100k), Zabeel (fee NZ$100k, average earnings for NZ- and AUS-raced foals only AUS$117k) and Rahy.

Numbers are from Blood-horse SRO, stallions.com.au, nzthoroughbred.com, and the Coolmore website, with suitable application of calculators on this end.

[kimberley mine]

I only quoted statistics I did not call him a flop you did. If he did so great in Europe why is he standing in the US?

By the way:

1. If you're going to quote me, please quote me in context. I called him a flop in Australia, which I think is a pretty fair judgement, and I'd say that the Aussie and Kiwi breeders on the board would agree with me.

2. He's standing in the US because Coolmore moved him there. I can only guess at their motivations, but I suspect it was because they thought they could get more money for him there.

Always a pleasure arguing with you. I never could resist a good, sound debate.

[AscotStud]

The original title of this thread is "Giant's Causeway gets top runners." He does. That is an irrefutable fact--a Euro champion, an Italian highweight, a horse who should have had more consideration for US turf male champ but was shut out by west coast bias (Aragorn), a Queen's plate winner...those are not nags or donkeys.

That quote is funny because we stand a similar horse, Tejano Run...his fee is $5,000. 2 Time Italian Highweight (G1 winner), 3 time Canadian Champ, 2nd in the Plate, winner of the Plate Trial, Hollywood G3 winner while breaking her maiden, multiple Cali stakes placed stake winner. Yes I know not same league as GC, but for the difference of a couple hundred G's you can get a nice horse anywhere...GC is an overhyped product of the Coolmore clowns. I loved him as a race horse, and hoped he would make Fu Peg look like a chump at stud, but he is still not the next big thing.

[wallinga]

1. If you're going to quote me, please quote me in context. I called him a flop in Australia, which I think is a pretty fair judgement, and I'd say that the Aussie and Kiwi breeders on the board would agree with me.

yes

[Keith]

Fairbanks will be standing in Pennsylvania next year.

Keith

[dray33]

I am a huge fan of GC, although they DO tend to waaaay overbreed him.

[Elusive City]

I have no real opinion, just that I had this as an old link in my bookmarks and found it earlier this evening.

http://www.thoroughbredreview.com/StallionWatch.htm

LOL. worst value.

3. Elusive Quality ($75,000 Darley, KY) - Statistical profile closely emulates or falls below those of many stallions in the $25,000 range. Just when we thought reality was about to set in after the buzz from Smarty Jones wore off, Maryfield comes along to perpetuate this guy's inflated value

Glad the Breeders of Raven's Pass didn't listen to this drivel.

[Hotwalker]

Blood-Horse has an article in the recent issue that asks trainers about what they think of their horses by Giant's Causeway. The comments generally said they are better with age, are versatile with surfaces, and can be strong willed.