Vote for the most overpriced new stallion

AscotStud · Postby **AscotStud** » Tue Jan 06, 2009 6:49 pm

ok, you're crazy.

TGM got SO much bad PR last year I think the negative sentiment may be driving his value too low

I don't know too many other horses that can't crack the top 2 that are hyped as much as he is his bloodhorse page lists him as "world record setter". And how many that can't crack the top 2 that start for over $5k (aside from the equally over hyped Spanish Steps, Florida has quite the hype train down there).

Just think of all the other horses out there that are proven in his price range.

If nothing else, his babies should win halter class at the Va horse shows hands down

And that's where he should be.

Joltman · Postby **Joltman** » Tue Jan 06, 2009 9:05 pm

As this is a first crop the price tag will certainly go lower at least until his 2yos start running, or don't.

Reminds me of Seattle Dancer. Great bloodline at a high price tag. He ran a little bit. Retired after 37 SW - hardly a standout but did end up with a Ky Oaks winner.

any one else out there think he might be at least 'useful'?

jm

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Tue Jan 06, 2009 10:46 pm

the thing with TGM is that unlike stattle dancer or houston, TGM's bloodlines aren't horrible, but I wouldn't consider him to be a blue blood stallion. Nanneral was a good horse, but I mean.. 16 million dollar, paying 5k for a stallion who couldn't break his maiden good? dont' think so.

to justify paying 5k for a horse that was a complete dud at the track at stud, it would have to be something like Preach having a baby by Kingmambo or something like that. Two bloodlines that are just proven as proven can be. aT least that's the way I see it.

AscotStud · Postby **AscotStud** » Wed Jan 07, 2009 12:05 am

The Green Monkey has a pretty weak family as far as stallions go. Other than the fact he is by my second favorite unsound sire of sires there really is no upside to him aside from the fact he was bought for a false "world record price".
Like BDW sort of said Seattle Dancer and Houston were from solid families, not that they were destined to make it big, but the had something going for them....this horse just looks like a pretty quarter.

I know people think he looks nice...but in the business of breeding race horses he is on the outside looking in, go to Beulah tomorrow and you'll find a nice looking horse with his junk. Most of the people I know are breeding for actual races not an 1/8th in Feb which may be his forte. He will still breed over 100 mares and we will hear crap from the connections until the day his horses hit the track and act like idiots, just like he did. Given the numbers he gets he will get a decent horse or two, but any $5k claimer with his type of support could a decent horse or two. Bottom line, if you are looking for value he is not it...the ones that will be "overpriced or big sells" won't be the one you breed, if you catch my drift.

It's funny people on this board will rip BDW for wanting to breed to King Cugat, who I think is a great deal in NY and SH, but will back up this horse and others like Mr S. Smoke and mirrors trump anything these days.

As my brother says about me "he's as useful as a wet paper bag"

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Wed Jan 07, 2009 12:47 am

you know.. i got tot hinking.. And I actually
think TGM will be a very solid commerical play. I'd never actually race him myself, but think about it. he's a knockout. rather or not they are going to run or not, he's going to bred some pretty NICE looking horses, i have no doubt about that. just like rock hard ten did ,and like rock hard ten they sold very well.

Still wouldn't bred to him, but I could justify the commerical angle.

Fireslam · Postby **Fireslam** » Wed Jan 07, 2009 11:40 am

Ill be very surprised if he gets over 15 mares. With the OBS sale looking like it is right now, theres only a handful of stallions booking right now in Ocala. I dont believe he's one of them.

Jorge · Postby **Jorge** » Wed Jan 07, 2009 4:16 pm

As per sires of rare coat colors, sometimes they become successful by being crossed with Thoroughbred mares for other disciplines and even with warmblood mares.

Joltman · Postby **Joltman** » Wed Jan 07, 2009 4:32 pm

bdw0617 wrote:you know.. i got tot hinking.. And I actually
think TGM will be a very solid commerical play. I'd never actually race him myself, but think about it. he's a knockout. rather or not they are going to run or not, he's going to bred some pretty NICE looking horses, i have no doubt about that. just like rock hard ten did ,and like rock hard ten they sold very well.

Still wouldn't bred to him, but I could justify the commerical angle.

That's where I was going too - the commercial side will still find him attractive assuming he throws half his looks - the hype machine will still be rolling. The commercial side is all hype. Its marketing and illusion. And yes there are going to be better $2500 sires if you want to improve your odds of a decent runner. BUT, if he gets a few great mares and gets lucky with one or two early (even if due to the mare if no other reason) he will continue to ride the wave of popularity (notoriety will keep him on the radar screen if nothing else) which will translate into $$$. How many of you stallion owners out there wish you had 10% of the free advertising this guy has received? In the words of a promoter-friend of mine - there's no such thing as bad publicity. Some breeders just love SPEED. He had it (ok maybe only for a quarter). And looks and the ability to get people to fall in love with him. Kinda like a presidential candidate in the last election....

A couple of other questions though. Did Pletcher ever try him on the turf, or artificial surface? Any published works on the turf? Was he a nut job? If he was, it makes one wonder if gelding him might have turned him into at least 'useful'.

BTW BDW, I like King Cugat under the right conditions. The Southern Hemisphere guys manage to do well with some 'castoffs' from up here as out trainers haven't got a clue what to do with these guys. There may be a winning genetic combination that can make something happen. Good like finding it.

jm

LB · Postby LB » Wed Jan 07, 2009 4:42 pm

Joltman wrote:That's where I was going too - the commercial side will still find him attractive assuming he throws half his looks - the hype machine will still be rolling. The commercial side is all hype. Its marketing and illusion.

I think you're underestimating both breeders and buyers.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Wed Jan 07, 2009 6:42 pm

joltman, it is going to depend on the mare I get, which I will know in the next 2months. but i like him and wil leventually breed to him.

I sat a 400k rock hard ten yearling. The never won a race outside of the state of california rock hard ten.

I would not breed to TGM, but I honestly can't say I don't see the rationale of someone who does. I'm not ready to race him if he didn't sell and if he's not a looker than you are in trouble.

Joltman · Postby **Joltman** » Wed Jan 07, 2009 8:29 pm

LB wrote:
Joltman wrote:That's where I was going too - the commercial side will still find him attractive assuming he throws half his looks - the hype machine will still be rolling. The commercial side is all hype. Its marketing and illusion.

I think you're underestimating both breeders and buyers.

OK - I overhyped my opinion a bit now didn't I ?...

Yet there are so many examples of stallions that have ridden high on the marketing of their promoters for a long time, with mediocre results. I really hope that Smarty Jones doesn't fit that description but despite getting the quality mares the verdict thus far is scary.

Likewise, there are some really good sires that don't get the promotion who can throw outstanding runners. Hence the difficulty of sorting through the marketing smoke and mirrrors and trying to get at what is really going on in this game.

jm

wallinga · Postby **wallinga** » Wed Jan 07, 2009 10:14 pm

bdw0617 wrote:the thing with TGM is that unlike stattle dancer or houston, TGM's bloodlines aren't horrible.

Yeah Seattle Dancer had TERRIBLE breeding

Tappiano · Postby **Tappiano** » Thu Jan 08, 2009 6:53 am

Danzig just plain ran too hard.... too hard for his own good. He'd lie down in the stall for 3 days after he ran, to have continued racing him would have been unfair to him since he was in such discomfort.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Thu Jan 08, 2009 7:34 am

wallinga wrote:
bdw0617 wrote:the thing with TGM is that unlike stattle dancer or houston, TGM's bloodlines aren't horrible.

Yeah Seattle Dancer had TERRIBLE breeding

in an effort to go out of your way to try to put me down, as always, you didn't bother to actually read what I was trying to say.

you are the only one who seems to not underesatnd that I was trying to say that seattle dancer had great/good bloodliens while TGM didn't.

Tonno100 · Postby **Tonno100** » Thu Jan 08, 2009 8:10 am

bdw0617 wrote:
wallinga wrote:
bdw0617 wrote:the thing with TGM is that unlike stattle dancer or houston, TGM's bloodlines aren't horrible.

Yeah Seattle Dancer had TERRIBLE breeding

in an effort to go out of your way to try to put me down, as always, you didn't bother to actually read what I was trying to say.

you are the only one who seems to not underesatnd that I was trying to say that seattle dancer had great/good bloodliens while TGM didn't.

That is not what your post says at all, my guess is people ignored it, rather than "got" it!