Sahara Heat--New Stallion

Discussion and analysis of thoroughbred stallions.

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pokeyman
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Postby pokeyman » Wed Dec 03, 2008 6:35 am

bcassidy wrote:Pokeyman----many of your comments are spoken from only the owner of a mare perspective. I respectfully submit you may be missing some of the value in your breeding decisions.
Dual state and even three state restricted options are a huge bonus. If they are being minimized than people need to look at it closer. I can't imagine why someone wouldn't take advantage of this option if you could. The benefits are enormous. I will try and give a few big ones here but by no means will this be conclusive.

Restricted bred race eligibility in two/three states. Many more options and year round racing opportunities.
state bred and open race conditions effectively doubles your opportunity to make money with a foal. Not every state treats this the same.
black type credentials in two/three state bred programs--great value and options for your breeding program
Multiple track, surface, jockey and trainer options--Monmouth, Presque Isle Downs, Penn National, Finger Lakes, Saratoga, Aqueduct, etc. You have a much wider assortment of options to fit your horse and or budget.
Mutliple distance, surface, track, jockey, trainer options---usually within the same time frame. If I have a Pa/NJ bred I might have 10 races I can shoot for within a 30 day time frame vs just the 2 or 3 I might have open to me with just a single state eligibility.
The state bred breeders awards programs are huge advantages. Pa gives you a 40% bonus and the ability to go open AOT while NJ would pay you for Out of state wins while their season is closed.
Increased sales value for your preraced horse.
Higher claiming values for your racing stock.
Limited foal crops in some states are a huge competitive advantage.
Black type ability easier in some states--easier competition
Black type options better in some states----grass, synthetic, 5f-1 and a half mile options.
Many many more to list almost too many to do comprehensively. I love these benefits.....and you only get the maximum advantage by breeding to a NJ stallion. That's why you don't hear more about it... Most people in NJ not taking advantage of it and most out of state to NJ breeders not sending their mares to NJ to be bred... It represents great value for out of state (from NJ) breeders.


Thank you the nice discussion. I appreciate your point of view as a stallion syndication manager.

However, please note that we are active in the NJ Bred program and are NJTBA members so we know the value of NJ Breds quite well. We also foal in MA and have dual MA-Bred/NJ bred foals or NY. In fact, one of our mares is a 3rd generation NJ bred from Joe Jennings broodmare band.

However, what you might be forgetting is that to be a NJ bred foal does not necessarily require that the foal be sired by a NJ stallion. Thus, why breed to below average NJ stallions if you can breed to a KY stallion or Not For Love and foal in NJ to get your NJ Bred? This is what the top NJ Bred breeders do and dominate the NJ Bred races. Trust me ...we know and it's tough to beat unless you counter by breeding out of state. Not For Love is the big gun for people who want to stay Regional but foal NJ Breds.

It's not like the NJ Bred races are restricted to NJ Sires only horses!!!! You will still be up against great breeding any way you look at it. I mean our top NJ Bred was sired by Forest Wildcat (ky) for crying out loud!! Joey P is the exception.....

Winning NJ bred races is tougher than you think. Plus, NJ has zero NJ Bred turf races unlike NY. Thus, the program is dominated by sprinters. Whereas, you might be able to win a NY Bred MSW going in 1:12 (one of the horses in our trainer's barn won one in 1:14 on a fast track at Aqueduct) you need to go in 1:09 or 1:10 to win in NJ. This year, I think the 2 year old NJ breds went in 1:10/1:11 and the winner was sired by Not For Love. And, that was the 2 year old filly race that our filly just missed. I feel the competition is tougher in the NJ bred program than the NY bred program and we race in both...

Defrere is the only stallion we would risk breeding too. We do have a NJ bred sired by a NJ stallion but we bought the mare in utero.

We would breed to Defrere but he doesn't match up with any of our mares. There is currently nobody in NJ that gives you proven value other than Defrere. However, a lot of Regional stallions are better than Defere so we go there (Not For Love, Two Punch, Lite the Fuse, Disco Rico, Raffie's Majesty, Outflanker, etc).

Last year, we bred out and bred to Cozzene and Concerto. We lost our NY Bred by Tomorrows cat.

This coming year, I am staying Regional and will be going to the stallions mentioned above.

We, like most small race breeders, prefer proven stallions.

People might take a shot on your boy if the stud fee is low.

I do hope you have good luck but it is not as easy as you think! There are lots of KY sired NJ Breds that are very well bred......

BladeRunner
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Postby BladeRunner » Wed Dec 03, 2008 9:17 am

bcassidy wrote: NJ would pay you for Out of state wins while their season is closed.


While this is true in theory, the fact of the matter is that NJ for the last couple of years has not had the funding to pay out the Out-of-State Breeders Awards. Funding for this program will only happen if the state decides that horse racing is actually worth saving.

Otherwise, the NJ program is one of the best around. I do believe that many breeders would love the benefits of dual citizenship for their horses (I actually have 4 that I bred, and of those I own 2). And what Pokeyman says is right on the money. If you want a stakes/type quality horse more than likely you need to breed to a KY stallion or from FL, MD, etc. But I have also bred to NJ stallions and produced some very nice allowance/type runners from average mares. Horses that make money for the barn. That is not to say that you can't get a stakes winner, especially a Jersey-stake winner, but the reason to breed to a Jersey stallion is to keep your expenses down while tapping into the program and possibly taking advantage of the dual citizenship aspect.

If you look at the 2008 stallion earnings for New Jersey, there are really only 4 stallions that give you value (earnings per runner) and that would be Defrere, Unbridled Jet, Crafty Friend & Deputy Warlock. The jury is still out on Mo Mon who had 9 runners but only 2 winners in his freshman campaign. But you really can't judge the stallion on these early numbers. Deputy Warlock has had a small pool of runners too but for the last two years he has been tops in earnings per runner, again, from a small pool of runners. I will not include Close Up in this list because he has only one decent horse, Joey P., and he's just a freak. Personally, I breed to a combination of KY/FL/NY and NJ stallions...whatever fits my program, my mares and my budget.

tinners way
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Postby tinners way » Wed Dec 03, 2008 12:19 pm

Hello Brendan,

As someone who owns stallions and manages a couple of syndicates we obviously have a different point of view on how to get there. We both may actually end up at the same place, but I got a little dizzy when I read 20% discounts, multiple mare breedings the first 4 years, financing available for 3 years. I woud hate to have to manage that can of worms, and then each of the syndicate members expectations as well.

I have always believed in making it simple, and managing the expectation that hopefully the stud will become an excellent regional sire, and if we get lucky something more- but the only way "we" get there is to have the right owners and mares support him.

Concerning share ownership- absolutely the best value for mare owners. Gives them lots of options down the road, and usually the best means of controlling future costs. And yes, some mailbox money for breeders awards as well.

You are 100% correct, the regional programs-regardless of which state you are in-should always be taken advantage to the full degree. If you end up with a foal that can run open company anywhere or is stakes quality that is a great bonus.

I wish Sahara Heat the best of luck at stud.

Bohemia
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Postby Bohemia » Wed Dec 03, 2008 2:52 pm

I didn't pay very close attention this year, but traditionally the Monmouth Park racing office doesn't write races for NJ-breds going long because they don't fill. That's why you see all the six furlong sprints.

The Sleeters have had good success in the NJ bred program with their home stallions (Northern Idol, Tex R Rabbit, Intensity) but as a previous poster pointed out, usually the out-of-state stallions dominate the restricted races. But this isn't just happening in NJ - check out the sires of horses winning the Pa.-bred races and stakes. Pa., however, is starting to bring better stallions into the state, whereas NJ is not (aside from Brendan's Sahara Heat).

By the way, check out the new thread "NJ breeders get scr%^$&&!" under the "General Discussion" topics on this forum.

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rudydee
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Postby rudydee » Wed Dec 03, 2008 3:51 pm

Sorry Bohemia
Monmouth Park's Racing Office has been offering NJ bred restricted races short and long at least twice a month in Maiden Special Weight (46K purse), NWX1 (50K purse) and NWX2 (51K purse). My recollection is that they have been doing that since at least 2006.

As far as the thread,"NJ breeders get scr%^$&&!"...I'll be kind.
lilli is wrongo. Blade Runner explained it best.

No doubt there is trouble on the horizon-but after the 2010 racing season.
Pennsylvania has a governor in Ed Rendell who is a great supporter of racing and open space. In NJ, they have a governor in Jon Corzine who loves the money he gets in contributions from the Atlantic City casino lobbyists. He gets his "wisdom" from them too. "Horse Racing is a dying industry....let it die." A quote from the governor of the "Garden State".

If Brendan can get 100 mares in that kind of climate, he should be appointed NJ's Secretary of the Department of Agriculture.

bcassidy
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Postby bcassidy » Thu Dec 04, 2008 7:34 am

There are a few posts that I need to respond to but I can only get to Pokeyman's right now.

thanks for the kind words, you are correct---it is nice to have a civil conversation about these kind of topics and I certainly appreciate the feedback---straight and unfiltered.

I didn't mean to imply that it is a mistake to breed to out of state stallions. I do it myself and for some on this board they may know how much I value Northern Afleet which I have and will continue to breed to in Kentucky.

I was pointing out that while different from shipping a horse to Ky or Md for that matter in the case of Not for Love (who is obviously another excellent stallion) there are other strategies that can be every bit as effective.
While it is true you can breed to some excellent stallions out of state you still have to factor their stud fees into the money earned/expense equation and you have more limited racing opportunities/purses to run for.
A NJ stallion which has its foals dropped in another state like NJ or Pa for example might make as much or more money than a foal out of a more expensive stallion from Ky.
I have to run right now but I will get back to this later and the few other posts as well. Take care Brendan.
best regards Brendan

bcassidy
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Postby bcassidy » Fri Dec 05, 2008 7:25 am

Pokeyman---sorry I had to end that last post before I finished all my thoughts. Here are some other points to think about or discuss. I actually think most people approach the breeding business from the wrong entry point. Knowing what I know now I would recommend a totally different approach---but that is for a different thread. As far as this thread is concerned----why wouldn't you own a share in at least one stallion for your mares? Do you realize you may be missing out on additional earnings for your business?
Let's say you purchased a share in Defrere (a very good NJ stallion BTW--this year alone his syndicate will earn another 100k-120k in additional income from NJ state breeders awards. So each share will earn roughly another 3k in income plus get the seasonal breeding rights for free.) if you had owned a share in him you would have your breeding rights for free or you could sell that seasonal breeding right for 3-5k plus get additional income from the syndicate for breeders award income earned.
In addition to the income/breeding rights----because he stands in NJ you could also drop your foal/s in another state and have that foal be dual state registered and eligible for 2 states restricted bred races and stakes program. If you board your foal in Delaware for 90 days as a yearling you get an additional state restricted program for your foal as well----3 state bred programs for one foal.....this is a very nice strategy to maximize your income from a single animal and you don't have to breed out of state with substantially higher stud fees.
best regards Brendan

bcassidy
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Postby bcassidy » Fri Dec 05, 2008 8:21 am

tinners way---it is really no can of worms at all. It actually makes the most sense for the mare owner and I hope I can educate many of them on the benefits of this approach. After 20 years of being on the other side (mares only) I began to approach syndications with many of the same principles I have applied in other businesses I have run-----give the customer as much value as possible. Most stallion syndications loose this perspective and I think there is a real need to explain two things to the average mare owner first--- the benefits of stallion syndication and second why this syndication is better than most. In my experience I have found that most owners of breeding mares really don't know the benefits of stallion syndication and/or the value of them. Many have never done it before and think they (as a small breeder) can't afford to do it. Personally, I have never been to one stallion farm or talked to one stallion manager about the benefits of stallion syndication. They are all trying to sell only one thing-----a single breeding season and what is the one thing they have to negotiate with-----stud fee---and guess which way it is going----down,down, down. This is a big mistake for everyone----as an example----why would anyone want to breed to a stallion at a reduced stud fee----all you are doing is cheapening the stallion. Our approach----is rather than discount the stud fee---increase the value of the stud fee---guarantee the result, provide tax incentives---in 2008 there is a 70% accelerate tax benefit, increase the breedings for the share owner in the early years of the syndication, finance the share to improve the cash flow for the mare owner, etc.
I believe very strongly in this approach and I hope I can educate the first time syndicate member or average mare owner of its value.
There is a huge difference between the Ky stallion market and the regional breeding market. Ky stud fees have the potential to grow exponentially if the stallion hits----regional stallions do not. But-----regional stallions offer so much more to a local breeder than out of state stallions. Lower stud fees, restricted bred options that out of state stallions can't match, state sired restricted races, etc.
I hope this helps to explain some of the logic on my approach. It may be different but I think it offers so much more for the mare owner. If the mare owner will listen to something new and they are intelligent--- I can't see how they won't see the benefits of this approach. Best regards Brendan.
best regards Brendan

bcassidy
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Postby bcassidy » Fri Dec 05, 2008 8:28 am

Blade runner----if you don't mind me asking, do you own a share in a stallion? If so who and why did you select him? If not----why haven't you purchased a share?
You are correct--- the NJ program is excellent for many reasons, not the least of which is the dual state registration opportunity..
Do you think most breeders look at net profit when planning a breeding or are most breeding to go the Ky Derby? Curious what you think?
best regards Brendan

bcassidy
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Postby bcassidy » Fri Dec 05, 2008 8:33 am

Bohemia----rudydee already answered your one question but just to support his answer, yes the racing secretary at both Monmouth and Meadowlands have been writing long races for J breds. It really wasn't that the races wouldn't fill but rather they would keep the J bred 6f races with 10-12 runners and then force any horse that wanted to go long to fill races in open contests, the same strategy they have for the grass races. Most owners/trainers I know would love to have some races carded on the turf for J breds.
The sleeters have been knocking it out of the park for a few years now. Many breeders can learn a lot from them. NJ is an excellent regional program and now with dual state registration potential---I personally don't think there is a better program.
best regards Brendan

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Postby Monmouth Matt » Fri Dec 05, 2008 12:43 pm

Brendan makes some very good points about the NJ breeding program. The dual citizenship is a dynamite feature and one that is underutilized because of the weak NJ sire crop. I thought Crafty Friend would be more popular than he is,and make a very good NJ sire with the dual state availability. His mare numbers are disappointing. We had a discussion on the NJ program here about 2 years ago that centered aroung getting a solid sire that appealed to enough breeders (NJ-Pa.-NY) thru the dual restricted aspect to cover 80-100 mares ....much like what Brendan is trying to accomplish...... I used the stallion Good and Tough who had been relocated from NY to La. as an example of a stallion who I thought could make it in NJ at 3k-5k fee.....cover 80 plus mares (55 straight J-breds....25 dropped outide NJ).
I still think the numbers work, but I'm not sure Sahara Heat is the stallion to make it work. I wish Brendan tons of luck, I think either a proven sire or proven runner is needed to make it work ....at $5k. The business is so darn tough to risk breeding to an unproven commodity who was a dissappointing runner.....regardless of pedigree....only my opinion.
And DOWN the stretch they come!

Monmouth Matt
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Postby Monmouth Matt » Fri Dec 05, 2008 1:22 pm

Here's a few names that I think can currently make it in NJ....based on their current situation being less than ideal....ie. not covering enough mares....state program having trouble...too much competition etc.. I'm sure folks have plenty of other thoughts, just wanted to share mine.

*Seattle Fitz (# 1 choice)...believe he covered< 25 mares in Ky. ....believe he can be a very useful sire....NJ fee$4K

*Concerto....love him.. believe he was < 50 mares past year @ 5K

*Louis Quatorze.... continued problems in Md....springs the big horse every now and then..... 5K

*Artax.... young enough to still have a future.....3k in NJ
And DOWN the stretch they come!

CS
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Postby CS » Fri Dec 05, 2008 1:29 pm

Monmouth Matt wrote:
*Seattle Fitz (# 1 choice)...believe he covered< 25 mares in Ky. ....believe he can be a very useful sire....NJ fee$4K


Seattle Fitz covered 124 mares in 2008 at Buck Pond. I doubt they'll let him go off that effort....

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Postby mikec » Fri Dec 05, 2008 1:46 pm

Monmouth Matt,
If either Seattle Fitz or Concerto came to N. J. I would breed to them in a heartbeat... wouldn't even think twice. I've even contemplated sending 2 of my mares to Fl for Concerto but that's such a haul. I've already bred to Louis Quatorze and have a N. J. bred colt by that. Artax ... I dunno but you're on the right track. Other than that Joe Jennings has the only other viable stallions in N. J. but my mares just don't fit so I'll continue shipping to Ky. for breeding and sacrifice a bit of bonus money which may not exist anyway.
Bring 'em back tired ; but bring 'em back sound !

Monmouth Matt
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Postby Monmouth Matt » Fri Dec 05, 2008 1:49 pm

wow..... the current mares bred list in the BH site is showing 17....I thought that was low.... is that an '07 list perhaps....still seems strange.
I like him alot for breed to race. I believe he will be very reliable in the $5k-7.5k range until further proven

Seattle Fitz (ARG) 17 KY (BH Mares -bred list on website)
And DOWN the stretch they come!