Postby Pete » Wed Apr 15, 2009 9:21 pm
Hi LaurieRace,
Adrian Parry did some comparisons and found that outcrossing was a statistically more successful breeding strategy than inbreeding (4 gens). In addition to Secretariat there are several other Derby winners including Afleet Alex and War Emblem (in recent years) that are complete outcrosses (no duplication in 5 gens) and others like Charismatic that are inbred (4x4) to multiple horses.
Adrian's study was based on graded stakes winners and there was no delineation based on patterns so it's an averaging context.
If a sire has an established pattern of success with inbreeding, like Dixie Union, (Northern Dancer wrapping Mr. Prospector) then you abide by that pattern because it's usually more salient than 'nicking' (affinities). On occasion there are larger patterns such as inbreeding to Nearctic that have been successful with many sons of his line.
In general I will look to outcross unless there's a compelling reason to inbreed (as in the case of Dixie Union). Inbreeding 4x4 has the ability (and not certainty) to amplify the best AND worst qualities of that individual but the overall impact in blood remains a single 3rd generation influence.
I had an interesting mating this year where there was linebreeding to 7 important mares at least 6x6 (equivalent) or more but no inbreeeding through 4 generations. I don't subscribe to the Rassmussen Factor as a legitimate breeding strategy without an understanding of what is intended and expected from a specific top mare in the pedigree but a collection of 7 mares I felt to be compelling.
Good luck with your Stephen Got Even who has gotten 2 superior colts - may you have the third.
Regards,
Pete
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms