Six new chefs-de-race

Discussion and analysis of thoroughbred stallions.

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JCBloodstock
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Postby JCBloodstock » Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:58 pm

Nodouble should have been a Chef years ago. Codex and Lost Code loses me, and to become a Chef years ago you didn't pop in as one off of just a few crops. The additions of Smart Strike and Kingmambo I can understand but Giant's Causeway almost makes me wonder if becoming a Chef has to do with how much money passes hands under the table.

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Postby Tappiano » Thu Sep 30, 2010 10:40 am

It's not a matter of money under the table IMHO if you get your stud 200+ mares a year you have a much better chance of making an impact compared to one who had 50 a year. That's probably why it took so long for the other stallions to make the list in the past. They did not have that number.

Lifetime he has 45% winners and 89 stakes winners (7%) from 921 foals of racing age. His highest career earner is Shamardal at 1.931 million.

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Postby Dave C » Fri Oct 01, 2010 7:28 am

Don't confuse a stallion being named a chef-de-race by Steve Roman with Steve Roman naming a stallion an important influence. Being named a chef is about being a statistically predictable influence in a pedigree not about importance. Storm Cat is an important sire in any pedigree, but his impact is not statistically predictable and consequently he will not be designated a chef.

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Postby brogers » Fri Oct 01, 2010 9:53 am

Tappiano wrote:How can genetic affinities in nicks translate to whether a stallion passes on offset knees? I would expect that at least with dosage it is a more reliable indicator of a stallions proclivity in transmitting stamina down through the generations and therefore it is more likely than not the traits being passed on are decent, IMHO.


Tappiano,

Dosage isn't in my opinion any more valid than those that believe that duplications of the sisters Caroline, Maria, Maid of Lune and Emma (all born in the early 1800's) are required to make a good horse.

Genetics being what it is, a horse could have a lot, some or very little of the genetic material of its ancestors within it's own genes and with recombination the chances of it having an impact diminishes each generation. If you think that a horse in the 5th generation of a pedigree is going to have a great impact on the ability of a horse you are probably also best of believing in Dragons or some other myth. It just doesn't work that way.
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Postby Dave C » Sat Oct 02, 2010 7:33 am

brogers wrote:
Tappiano wrote:How can genetic affinities in nicks translate to whether a stallion passes on offset knees? I would expect that at least with dosage it is a more reliable indicator of a stallions proclivity in transmitting stamina down through the generations and therefore it is more likely than not the traits being passed on are decent, IMHO.


Tappiano,

Dosage isn't in my opinion any more valid than those that believe that duplications of the sisters Caroline, Maria, Maid of Lune and Emma (all born in the early 1800's) are required to make a good horse.

Genetics being what it is, a horse could have a lot, some or very little of the genetic material of its ancestors within it's own genes and with recombination the chances of it having an impact diminishes each generation. If you think that a horse in the 5th generation of a pedigree is going to have a great impact on the ability of a horse you are probably also best of believing in Dragons or some other myth. It just doesn't work that way.


If you don't think a horse in the fifth generation has a great impact on the ability of a horse, try running one that is missing an ancestor in the fifth generation. :lol:

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Postby chester » Tue Oct 05, 2010 1:12 am

I just find it hard to fathom that:

!) Nodouble is as stout an influence as say, Vaguely Noble, also C/P.

2) Storm Cat/Storm Bird/Rahy are not important to the Giant's Causeway equation, and indeed, were barely mentioned in the classification article. There are Gr 1 winners where I come from that are great-great-grandsons of Storm Cat, whose influence impacts not at all on their DPs.

3) Likewise, is Kingmambo a stamina influence of the same ilk as Sadler's Wells or Rainbow Quest ? Does anyone agree with me that his "stamina" influence relies greatly on chefs & "non chefs" in the sires of the dams of his middle distance types. Kris S crops up a few times in both GC & K, for example.

And then,

4) Classifying chefs to fit some pre-determined formula is the tail wagging the dog. Storm Cat not influential ! Spare me !!

5) And what about Green Desert etc, Vice Regent/Deputy Minister etc, Alleged and dozens of other much more influential stallions, now receding into the 3rd or 4th generations, but equating to zip in the Dosage calculations.

6) Why, within the DI formula, do B pts account equally as I pts, when the latter surely suggests more stamina?

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dublino
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Postby dublino » Tue Oct 05, 2010 1:48 am

chester wrote:
4) Classifying chefs to fit some pre-determined formula is the tail wagging the dog.


Just leave it at that and you have your answer.
What does Mr Beyer say about Zenyatta and she has won 13 G1 races and 19 undefeated.

Numbers after the event to fit some pre-determined formula.

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Postby ElPrado » Wed Oct 27, 2010 8:11 am

Mr Beyer hates Zenyatta. She doesn't fit his predetermined profile, because, 1) she doesn't run on dirt, and he has never been very successful on artificial surfaces.
2) she isn't running full out for most of the race and his system falls apart then. For most of the race she is cantering along counting the seagulls in the infield and wondering if she wants yellow ribbons in her mane or if she should change to pink. Smith changes position and she shifts to race mode. Then his system blows up in his face.
3) he hasn't managed to beat her with any horse.

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Postby DDT » Wed Oct 27, 2010 5:07 pm

Brogers

I do agree that the majority of 5th generation genes are filtered out, however, the Y chromosome is passed along, but it carries a very limited number of genes, and one of the 5th generation dam's X chromosomes could be passed on to the instant generation. The mtDNA is used to verify the female line so whatever genes are there and what they may or may not contribute to the success of the instant generation is not known yet but it is also passed along. But I do agree as a general rule the remaining genetic impact of 5th generation horses in a pedigree is minimal. Truenicks will go back at least 3 generations if the 1st and 2nd generation are sires with little representation, how much genetic contribution do you think a 3rd generation sire provides?

As to Dr. Roman and his theory on dosage, I take it or leave it but the fact remains that an over whelming number of Chef's were good race horses and/or leading or top sires so their presence in a pedigree can only help in the chances for breeding a good runner.

DDT

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Postby alina » Fri Nov 05, 2010 3:11 am

hi, because chef de race Kingmambo is C/S??

not 'more correct I/C ??

bye

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Postby kimberley mine » Fri Nov 05, 2010 7:51 am

chester wrote:
3) Likewise, is Kingmambo a stamina influence of the same ilk as Sadler's Wells or Rainbow Quest ? Does anyone agree with me that his "stamina" influence relies greatly on chefs & "non chefs" in the sires of the dams of his middle distance types. Kris S crops up a few times in both GC & K, for example.


That was my point about not controlling for the mare base in the stamina calculation.

Muhtathir was one heck of a miler, champion in Italy, Gr-1 miler in Italy and France, ran out of gas over a mile but you didn't want to get in his way at 8 panels. His three best offspring all want at least 10f and one really loves 12f. Is that because of the mares he saw, or is Muhtathir throwing stamina? The only way to answer that is to divide his stats amongst the stamina profiles AND performances of his mares, and then see. Roman doesn't do that.

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Postby skywatcher » Tue Nov 09, 2010 1:53 pm

ElPrado wrote:Mr Beyer hates Zenyatta. She doesn't fit his predetermined profile, because, 1) she doesn't run on dirt, and he has never been very successful on artificial surfaces.
2) she isn't running full out for most of the race and his system falls apart then. For most of the race she is cantering along counting the seagulls in the infield and wondering if she wants yellow ribbons in her mane or if she should change to pink. Smith changes position and she shifts to race mode. Then his system blows up in his face.
3) he hasn't managed to beat her with any horse.


sorry for the OT but thanks for this picture, I'll be thinking about it and giggling to myself all day

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Postby parlo » Fri Jul 06, 2012 8:56 am

parlo wrote:... Btw: Monsun was promoted into Chef-de-race-status [C/S] last autumn, but the dosage-profiles of his progeny given in the PQ-database do not reflect this promotion. ...


Is there a routine to update the dosage-profiles given in PQ-database after new sires had been promoted to CdR-status?

I found Monsun's progeny not up-to-date, but haven't saught other recently promoted Chefs.

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Patuxet
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Postby Patuxet » Fri Jul 06, 2012 9:12 am

Frank: Your complaint will get more attention (and perhaps action) if posted in the General Discussion under the Sticky: "PedigreeQuery Is Not Keeping Up to Date".

Good luck!

Allison
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Postby Barcaldine » Fri Jul 06, 2012 12:22 pm

Dosage = Dual Qualifiers = True Nicks = ENicks = Werk Nicks = Bruce Lowe family numbers = Gobbledygook shortcuts which don't work