What Will The Fees Be?

[kimberley mine]

Y'all don't think city zip will go up? Now that the breeding world has found out his babies can run on turf also and excell, I see him going up maybe 2500

If he were anywhere but Lane's End, I would agree--they were the ones last year who dropped their fees the furthest and fastest, and I seriously doubt they'd go back on that. I can see them bumping up Candy Ride, but not moving anybody else up.

[jeff9061]

I think City Zip stays put. He's already shown us what he was before this year. Even with some new high end turf runners out west, his stats and reputation were already well discovered. And Lane's End is very solid -- they put 'em in the right spot, and they hold very tight.

On the other hand, I'm wrong a lot, so who knows.

I want TG to drop so I can consider him for GiGi.

Be very careful going this route. It was safer three years ago. Unless, of course, GiGi is an imaginary horse in a fantasy game or something. If you can find another stallion with a quality race record that carries as much Northern Dancer let me know. I've got an outcross for him, and have been looking myself. Not trying to hijack the thread -- point was, TG is very unreliable these days.

[Tappiano]

TG loves Ribot and my mare has that x2. She comes from an incredibly solid family, has about 98% runners going back 4 generations all but two are winners. Just look around this board you will learn more about her then you probably wanted to know. Yes, she is real and yes I have a budget.

[jeff9061]

Sorry, I was too vague. My point was that none of that matters if he can't get GiGi in foal.

I have a mare who suits him very well too, but at this point I'm looking for something like him who gives me a more reasonable shot at a mare in foal.

[fastappy]

All guesses......

Mineshaft--same
Roman Ruler--down
Not For Love--same
Bluegrass Cat--down
Candy Ride--up
Exchange Rate--down
Rock Hard Ten--down
Macho Uno--down (or needs to, at least)
Dixie Union--same
Lemon Drop Kid--same, but given Lane's End seems to get it, maybe down
Speightstown--same, maybe up
Malibu Moon--up
Kitten's Joy--down (needs to be down at least a half)
Mr Greeley--down (for heaven's sake, down, and why are his yearlings selling like that when he has less than $60k average earnings?)
Tapit--same
Awesome Again--same
Indian Charlie--same, but wouldn't be surprised to see him go to $60k
Pulpit--same
Tiznow--same
Smart Strike--same
Elusive Quality--likely down, based on median yearling sales
Giant's Causeway, Distorted Humor, Medaglia D'oro, Street Cry--same
Unbridled's Song--hard to say, likely same or slightly down to $100k
AP Indy--same or private (he's getting older, they might get picky)
Dynaformer--same
Street Cry--same

You're pretty much on the money on your downs except Mr. Greely, ... it's a European thang! He's hot for them, they look and sell great, but practically speaking I'm in your corner on him as well, but if clients are willing to bid his foals up, whatcha gonna do? Take the money and run.

[bdw0617]

you won't see very much change in the already established sires becuase of the economy so i will focus on the first year sires

ernardini - $75,000
Pomeroy- $12,500
Congrats - $15,000
Henny - $15,000 (down)


i used to be a huge mr g detractor.. until i sat down and watched this year's entire sale. man, the throws some of the most beautiful race horses i've ever seen. it's like that x that you know is crazy but she is just so good looking you keep going back.

[Tappiano]

Sorry, I was too vague. My point was that none of that matters if he can't get GiGi in foal.

I have a mare who suits him very well too, but at this point I'm looking for something like him who gives me a more reasonable shot at a mare in foal.

Yes, I agree and thanks for the information. I only have two shots at it because she's not due until the end of April. It took four covers to get her in foal; I think Nobiz would rather spend his time sleeping. Then again if he stays at 10K I'm not breeding to him so we'll see what they do. I also like Badge of Silver, he's another one that should like Ribot. His feet don't bother me.

[bfinellc]

So how high does Candy Ride go? $40K?

[Fireslam]

you won't see very much change in the already established sires becuase of the economy so i will focus on the first year sires

ernardini - $75,000
Pomeroy- $12,500
Congrats - $15,000
Henny - $15,000 (down)


i used to be a huge mr g detractor.. until i sat down and watched this year's entire sale. man, the throws some of the most beautiful race horses i've ever seen. it's like that x that you know is crazy but she is just so good looking you keep going back.

I dont know why you think Pomeroy would go so high. He'll probably stay the same. Henny might be in a new zip code.

[LB]

Did anyone else read Rob Whitely's well-reasoned analysis of the market in yesterday's TDN? Citing the number of breeders who lost money, sometimes great quantities of money, in September, he thinks that stud fees still need to be cut in half.

I know that stallion owners are hurting, but the last two years have put a lot of mare owners out of business. And reduced stud fees coming in are better than no stud fees coming.

[Fireslam]

That was a very well written article. I dont know if it will make any impact, tho. There are a LOT of people selling mares this fall, people getting totally out of mares, or people selling most of theirs. It will be interesting to see which way the fees go.

[Firebrand]

All guesses......

Mineshaft--same
Roman Ruler--down
Not For Love--same
Bluegrass Cat--down
Candy Ride--up
Exchange Rate--down
Rock Hard Ten--down
Macho Uno--down (or needs to, at least)
Dixie Union--same
Lemon Drop Kid--same, but given Lane's End seems to get it, maybe down
Speightstown--same, maybe up
Malibu Moon--up
Kitten's Joy--down (needs to be down at least a half)
Mr Greeley--down (for heaven's sake, down, and why are his yearlings selling like that when he has less than $60k average earnings?)
Tapit--same
Awesome Again--same
Indian Charlie--same, but wouldn't be surprised to see him go to $60k
Pulpit--same
Tiznow--same
Smart Strike--same
Elusive Quality--likely down, based on median yearling sales
Giant's Causeway, Distorted Humor, Medaglia D'oro, Street Cry--same
Unbridled's Song--hard to say, likely same or slightly down to $100k
AP Indy--same or private (he's getting older, they might get picky)
Dynaformer--same
Street Cry--same

Unfortunately, Dixie Union's stud fee will be way down because he had to be euthanized in July.

[fastappy]

Street Cry (17th) should come down to 100K as well as A.P. Indy (25th). Probably won't happen in either case however. A.P.'s yearlings avg'd 550K this year, but he's fading as all stallions eventually do. When 9 of the top 10 ranked stallions are 35 to 100K and your ranked 17th & 25th respectively, it seems to be an adjustment needed.

[horse]

Today it was announced that Quality Road will stand at Lane’s End in 2011.

I'll offer my 2 cents and venture a guess at $150k, the highest of any freshman sire.

[Tappiano]

QR won't stand for that much. LE was one of the few farms that "got it" and they attracted a lot more mares then in the past.