Which stallions could attract 100 full-price customers...

[Derby2004]

Does anyone know the amount and quality of mares Alajwad is getting? He seems to be more of a turf sire in my opinion, kind of off the Florida trail. Lou Roe also has Pure Precision, which in my opinion is nice. Lou is a great guy to work with also.

[FOS]

hi halo

Your comments and analysis seem quite rational and reasonable.

But...it seems absolutely clear that a very significant number of breeders etc (above and beyond those that have "gotten in") have tried to attain seasons to Omega Code and have been unsuccessful. With this in mind...I would expect there's probably a "waiting list" for any spot(s) that may open up...for whatever reason(s)...as apparently there are many that still "hope" to "get in."

I expect that if you contact the standing farm...any doubts re: his popularity and/or (in general) the very-large-size of his book and the extent of his outside interest-and-support would swiftly be put to rest...and probably support Omega Code as a stallion worthy of inclusion among the list of stallions "to think about" as possibilities...that WOULD attract at least 100 mares whose owners WOULD be willing to PAY the FULL 2005 advertised stud fee.

I know MANY breeders are still attempting to attain access to him...and it is quite clear that Omega Code has genuinely attracted HUGE interest and support...and seems to (at least to some extent) have captured the imagination of many...without the need for discounts, "deals", special considerations etc etc etc.

And respectfully...I suggest that Tiger Ridge was NEVER so highly sought after (certainly at the outset) as is Omega Code.

Best to you.

Respectfully

[halo]

Well, FOS, I might put you to the test on that, as we still have 2 seasons to him that we still havent assigned mares to as yet.

He well may have been able to attract a full book of well over 100 mares paying full board on the fee. But at this point it is mere speculation, as there are 50 syndicate members breeding 100 mares on shares, which average out the price per season at far less than what the farm price is at this point. So taking 100 syndicate mares and substituting for, theoretically of course, 100 mares paying full price may or may not have happened. I have to think that if H/D thought they could book the horse full at farm price that they wouldnt have syndicated him at such a reasonable price.

Actually, I think H/D are very progressive in their marketing of their stallions. In syndicating them for reasonable prices, and attaching 2 seasons per share, they are essentially paying for the horse up front, having his upkeep paid for in syndicate costs, and insuring the horses breed full books until he proves to be good, or otherwise.

[FOS]

hi halo

You wrote "Well, FOS, I might put you to the test on that, as we still have 2 seasons to him that we still havent assigned mares to as yet."

halo...I am confident that the seasons to Omega Code would be "snapped-up" pronto...if the standing farm was authorized to sell them...now. I suggest that the "buzz" (surrounding Omega Code) is very loud and the iron is obviously very hot...now. And the word is already out that he is a Very Good breeding horse.

halo you also wrote "He well may have been able to attract a full book of well over 100 mares paying full board on the fee. But at this point it is mere speculation..."

Yes it is speculation...but All Things Considered...it seems clear that even if the shareholders made some of their seasons available...there's a very-real possibility that 100 full-pay seasons (and possibly even more) could be sold. No guarantees...but certainly a very-real possibility. For what it's worth...I know of a number of very serious breeders etc (some from Ky) who are sending mares to be bred to OC.

You also wrote "...there are 50 syndicate members breeding 100 mares on shares..."

halo...I expect that not all share/fractional interest owners are using all of their seasons. For instance...I expect that H/D and/or Walmac (and/or associates) retained a significant number of shares/fractional interests in the horse...and may have sold many of their seasons.

And consider this...Omega Code is expected to cover somewhere in the vicinity of 150 mares (if he can handle it etc etc). If that's the case...certainly a good number of seasons have to be sold above and beyond what shareholders use, and the standing-farm uses etc...and that's just for starters.

And (in the for-what-it's-worth category) I know that many mare owners that were unable to attain "shares"...or simply did not pursue that option...are breeding to Omega Code...and paying full ticket.

halo you wrote "I have to think that if H/D thought they could book the horse full at farm price that they wouldnt have syndicated him at such a reasonable price."

You may be right...but by syndicating a horse a number of things can be accomplished...including (for starters)...a significant portion (if not all) of the purchase price may be recovered (and/or financial responsibility transferred) promptly. Unless money is of no object (which is rarely the case) this can be important...for obvious reasons. And what about the affect on expanding a client base...and hopefully generating (or possibly sustaining) a reputation for "winning deals" etc etc. I suggest that's a win-win strategy...and good business...and probably key to the support that Hartley/DeRenzo seems to be experiencing.

Sounds-like you and I may be on much the same page re: Omega Code...at least to the extent that we agree that Omega Code was syndicated for a very "reasonable" figure...and packaged very attractively. As you probably know...MANY prospective buyers were shut out in their attempt to purchase shares/fractional interest(s).

I suggest that you (and/or your associates) got involved in not only a very good prospect but also a very hot commodity...Omega Code.

Best to you.

Respectfully

[henthorn]

FOS, I have not yet seen Authenticate, but he sold to Satish Sanan of Padua Stable for 3.3 million dollars as a yearling. So he must have looked pretty good in all respects at that time. I don't know what happened to him to cause him to be unraced.

Caroline Hicks says his first foals are solid-looking with lots of bone, and she is very happy with him so far.

He is advertised on the Blood Horse site, but not in Thoroughbred Times Directory. I bought the season for half-price through the TTA's online stallion season auction of donated seasons in December. (my mare is already proven in foal on February 11 cover).

[FOS]

hi henthorn

When I hear about "foals (that) are solid-looking with lots of bone"...and are from the first crop of a Gone West son that was a $3.3 mil yearling...my interest is piqued...despite the fact that he was unraced.

Although it would be interesting to hear why he didn't make it at the track.

Regardless...it sounds like you selected a very interesting one in Authenticate.

Best to you.

Respectfully

[Flight]

Watch out for Danehill's son, Redoute's Choice in Australia.

His oldest are three year olds and he has delivered more than his sire at this stage of his career.

Service fee will be hiked to over $100k this coming season but I am sure that he will attract more than 100 mares. And they will be the best ones too.

Last Saturday his progeny earnt just a tad under $1m including the winner of the first 2yr old G1 race.

But the irony is that Arrowfield who stand Redoute's originally stood Danehill in Australia until Coolmore "took" him back.

Wonder who is laughing louder now.

[FOS]

hi guys

Does Taylor Made stand any stallions that would attract a "full" book of mares whose owners would be willing to PAY the FULL 2005 Advertised Stud Fee...without receiving the benefit of any discounts, commissions, "deals", special considerations, and/or terms & conditions etc etc etc that are more advantageous than they advertise ?

Norhern Afleet seems like he might fit into that category.

Respectfully

[FOS]

hi guys

It seems clear that Malibu Moon is a stallion that would attract at least 100 mares whose owners would be willing to PAY the FULL 2005 advertised stud fee...$17,500 LF.

I understand that $30k was what it took to get to him earlier this year. He may prove to be very good value at that...his son Declan's Moon may see to that.

Respectfully

[reenci]

how about FREUD ...his book is already closed.

[FOS]

hi reenci

Freud? Why not?

A number of his 2-year-olds at the recent select sales were extremely well supported...and will most likely end up in very good hands.

Best to you.

Respectfully

[Shammy Davis]

FOS & all: As long as there is a commercial side and racing side to foal production, there is no reason for the top flight stallion owner to take any chances. If you own an attractive stud, that is commercially viable, all you have to do is wait for the clients to line-up. There is no reason to gamble on the ultimate product and you don't have to reduce your profit margins for the sake of the sport. Vice a versa, if you don't have a commercially viable sire, you are relegated to what little lines up at the barn and you are less able to seek the full potential of the horse's and the mare's strengths. I, for one, believe that a gamble is worth it. Although, I don't see a line at our barn door, we are willing to take a comparable chance with a mare owner and take a percentage of the future return, be it race or sale. Simply, if a stallion owner believes in the quality of his stud, he or she should be willing to take the same or proportional gamble as the mare owner. JMO Best wishes - Shammy

[FOS]

hi Shammy Davis

Yes there are some stallions whose owners/managers etc can wait for the "clients to line-up" (as you wrote) to get to their stallion(s)...

...but it's probably safe to say that's a rarity...and I suggest those stallions are very few and far between?

I am confident that even though the perception may be otherwise...many of the owners...managers etc of what you refer to as "top flight stallions(s)" are probably working, advertising and "spinning" etc to the best of their ability to attract mare owners willing to support their stallion(s).

And if a stallion is not (by reasonable comparisons and calculations) siring the number of quality runners and stakes-winners that his crop size(s)...caliber of mares-bred...and the capable hands that many of those offspring get into etc etc etc indicate he should (to maintain his place in the pecking order and justify his stud fee)...he should be scrutinized and relegated to the appropriate level. If the standing farm and/or the stallion's connections don't do it...often the dynamics of supply and demand will do it...sooner or later. Maybe then the stallion's connections might (as you wrote) "be willing to take the same or proportional gamble as the mare owner."

Some stallion owners...managers etc etc etc...seem to have the ability to (when they deem it necessary) purposely blur reality (an effective slight-of-hand trick comes to mind) in an effort to sustain or even elevate a floundering...and possibly overpriced stallion...by skillfully using various marketing tools...including "spin." Some stallion "gurus" seem to be much better at it than others.

And if those 'spinmeisters' can effectively accomplish what they set out to do...so be it. But Beware.

That's one example of why I recommend and suggest that's it's incumbent upon the mare owner(s)...breeder(s) etc to separate the wheat from the chaff...and honestly and thoroughly scrutinize and evaluate the stallions and sires that may interest them. All Things should be Considered...and I suggest it may be unwise to expect that the standing farm...its representatives and/or stallion's connections will thoroughly evaluate their stallion for you...in a subjective and unbiased fashion.

Regardless...if breeders etc are willing to pay (or possibly overpay) for the services of a stallion that they "perceive" is worthy of such a stud fee...so be it. Buyer beware.

Shammy Davis you wrote "Simply, if a stallion owner believes in the quality of his stud, he or she should be willing to take the same or proportional gamble as the mare owner."

That is a fine premise...but I suggest that those stallion owners (particularly those with what you describe as "top flight stallion(s)" are very few and far between.

Best to you.

Respectfully

[Shammy Davis]

FOS: Clearly, your comments make sense. I have no argument with them, because it is the market place that rules 95% of the time. From the very small and tight place that I hold in market, I maybe too idealistic and certainly too poor to deal in the high price world of $25K and up stallion seasons. Fortunately, for the small operation, the racing world provides an open door at every track and that is the claiming ranks. I think the world of racing is invested to much in the high dollar stakes races and the horses that qualify for them, but without the low end runners the tracks would never open. It is that end that gives me comfort. The real gamble and question is whether any stallion is worth the full value of his semen unless it is given away free. In my mind, probably not. Best wishes - Shammy

[scqhgal]

To All: What are your thoughts on Gimmeawink as an alternative to Omega Code? Both by EQ, although Gimmeawink doesn't have the speed record of OC, he is the second highest money earner by EQ. Stud fee is $4k. Thank in advance for your thoughts.