Dayjur-What are ones thoughts on Dayjur as a broodmare sire?

[Pete]

Hi Karie,

Hope your mare's in foal and best of luck selling her. I don't remember her name - can you post it again?

I tend NOT to use Equineline/Brisnet or other services unless I crucually need up to the minute data. One of my clients spent over $16,000 doing this in 2002 and has never even seen the APR CD.

If you don't have the APR CD, you need to get one. This data is in the process of 'aging' every day but it's an invaluable source. I hand write every pedigree usually based on the APR data not to save money (an of course not to savetime), rather to get the clearest picture of what the family is and what they're not.

The Jockey Club information and statistics are free and very valuable. This is where I got the numbers for Dayjur at stud. Their web-site is WWW.JOCKEYCLUB.COM.

All of the progeny data including turf/dirt was in the Bloodhorse Stallion Register for 2005. It's simple mathematics from there.

The interpretation of the data is what's really important. I have a set of algorithms that I use to determine what I need to know about a stallion's breeding performance and advise anyone analyzing this data to do the same.

Regards,

Pete

[Sysonby]

I tend NOT to use Equineline/Brisnet or other services unless I crucually need up to the minute data. One of my clients spent over $16,000 doing this in 2002 and has never even seen the APR CD.

WOW! I'm on Brisnet with two sires and my data runs about $30-40 a month. When I'm looking at a prospect, I sometimes put him on the list for a month or two for about $10-20 a month. I took three stallions off my list last year this way and I look at it as cheap information. How many stallions were they checking out or were they doing something besides just Brisnet's sire stablemail?

[Pan Zareta]

Otro Mambo isn't an example of reclamation, more of re-direction.

Actually the first -tion that crossed my mind in regard to that line was falsification. As I'm sure you know, it's something that must be considered w/ certain breeders in the late 19th/early 20th cent. Only mtDNA analysis might completely rule out that possibility, but I haven't found any good reason to doubt that Otro Mambo's tf is as shown in the ASB. On the other hand, the mid-century success (in the TB) of Chicaro's Hallie's tf line apparently did not represent reclamation of Lady Evans' branch of family 12b. Though CH was entered in the ASB as x Chicaro - Lady Eloise x Agile, her owner later stated for the record that she was not out of Lady Eloise, but of an unregistered mare named Ada Jones. Nonetheless, the tf line remains active in the registry.

[Pete]

Hi Sysonby,

Just a LOT of reports, 80% available on the APR or PedigreeQuery. Let it suffice to say that their use hasn't decreased.

Pete

[Pete]

Hi Pan,

I doubt that we're aware of the number of inaccuracies that exist in every stud book (I'll limit this comment to thoroughbreds), some intentional and I'd presume the majority unintentional.

Could a mixup (intended or not) change the fortunes of a female line? Absolutely. It's more likely that there are discrepancies in the sire than the dam, but the wrong dam changes the female family.

Obiously DNA testing will help eliminate these problems going forward, but as errors are found it will make a substantial impact in genetic confidence.

In my analysis of female families this isn't really a factor. Once a female family has been dormant for too long, it's not likely that I'm going to have any interest a daughter from the line nor will I recommend one.

Chronologically, Medaglia D'Oro's female line may have an error between Cappuccino Bay and Sunday Evening, but not likely. The real problem was a lack of foals.

In the case of Stick To Beauty's family, the fall off was sudden and and recent. After Sky Beauty, none of Maplejinsky's foals distinguished themselves. Sky Beauty has been a weak producer. Miraloma had a $2,800,000 foal that was unraced. After Dayjur, all three of Gold Beauty's foals sold for $1,600,000, $1,650,000 and $1,850,00 and have a total of 11 races and 1 win. A lot of money getting burnt at this altar.

I would assume that the further back in time you go the more chance there is for a female line's production to have been impacted by errors.

Regards,

Pete

[J.D.]

I would like to give an opinion based upon my experiences with Shadwell and Dayjur.

With regard to the remark that one "should count their change" when dealing with Shadwell, my personal experience with the farm has been far from such an innuendo. The people at Nashwan Stud have always been very fair and accomodating and I intend to continue to do business with them since I have found their professionalism to go above and beyond what I have experienced at other farms. In particular, I have found every member of the staff to be very forthcoming in our discussions and have come to the opinion that they have offered an extremely fair value for my dollar.

Irionically, I brought up the issue of Dayjur's supposed infertility to Kent Barnes, Shadwell's Stallion Manager, during a visit to the Bluegrass this past April. Eventhough the mare I had sent to them this most recent breeding season caught on the very first cover, I was still concerned by his numbers as obviously the rest of you are. Mr. Barnes informed me that the issue wasn't as much the fault of Dayjur as it was the mares he was being bred to. He even went so far as to take me up into the breeding lab and allow me to look at a sample taken from Dayjur approximately one and a half hours earlier under a microscope. I was shocked to not only observe an incredible number of sperm still alive after such a period of time, but was equally surprised by the vigor and motility of said sperm.

Needless to say, I am very comfortable with both the horsemanship and character of the individuals who represent Shadwell Farm and am looking forward to doing business again with them next year.

Respectfully,
J.D. Osgood

[Pete]

Hi JD,

I made the statement about 'counting one's change'. This isn't an indictment, rather a healthy skepticism about their perspective on Dayjur's fertility.

I appreciate your feelings about Shadwell and am pleased that you were well treated and that your mare caught on one cover. If you were waiting as Karie is, you might feel a little differently.

Dayjur's breeding statistics, (foals of 1998 on):

Year Bred Foals Pct%
1998 52 37 71%
1999 28 21 75%
2000 70 52 74%
2001 52 33 62%
2002 23 15 63%
2003 67 30 45%
2004 66 34 52%

Certainly not infertile but clear declining fertility and any prospective breeder should be so informed.

Shadwell apparently did what they needed to make you feel comfortable and it all worked out well. Motile sperm isn't necessarily fertile sperm and active sperm after 1.5 hours is to be expected (he's not over bred). I'm sure that they showed you a slide from Dayjur (I'm not being coy).

Blaming the fertility numbers on the mares doesn't hold water for me. This is KY where the AVERAGE is 69% foals from covers. In a small regional market I might accept this explanation. Fertility problems come in lots of varieties, such as Broad Brush's inability to complete, immature sperm (that might be very active), etc.

As I said, no indictment of Shadwell, glad it worked out for you, but a healthy skepticism is good in any business dealing. A less reputable farm could have lied to you outright.

Regards,

Pete

[J.D.]

Pete,

I definitely agree that the numbers do raise a flag of concern as it relates to the potency of his sperm, especially when compared to the average. However, skepticism includes looking beyond the numbers for other possible explanations and plausible reasons -- As Mark Twain once said, "There are three types of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

In light of the fact that I have had two different mares catch the first time on three different covers over the past four years, I have to question if the numbers are a true reflection of Dayjur's fertility or if perhaps something else is contributing to the situation. In addition, when I review the catalog pages of the various mares that have gone to auction over the past few years listed as in foal to him, I observe, more times than not, a disproportionate number of older mares whose best breeding days are most definitely behind them. Although there may be some merit to your position, I am doubtful that it entirely explains the circumstance taken together.

On another note, since you are from the State of New York, what is your opinion on Intidab? Is he the real deal or is Greater Good more the by-product of his mare Gather the Clan?

Best regards,
J.D.

[Pete]

Hi JD,

Anyone who knows their Twain is OK in my book.

I think we both made our point and I'm not trying to kick Shadwell.

Rougelet's peave is that these statistics don't show how many mares were declared in foal, just the number bred and live foals. It's a good point. Thus if the mares are a problem - that would help tell the tale. Just goes to prove Mr. Twain's point.

Mr. Twain also wrote (please excuse any inaccuracy).
"When I was 14 I was disgusted by my father's ignorance but by the time I turned 17 I was impressed with what he had learned in only 3 years."

I'm actually better versed with the KY stallions than those here in NY, but I get to see more of the foals from NY stallions, except Intidab . I've only seen Greater Good on TV.

Impossible to give any meaningful advice on Intidab. Pick Up The Phone was another son of Phone Trick who had a couple of quality runners from a small number of foals. Other sons, like Favorite Trick have struggled. I'd be more inclined towards him if I were breeding to race and sell him if Intidab proves he has the goods and becomes clearly commercial. Intidab did have a substantial book (certainly by comparison) this year (over 60 mares in early May I was told).

Regards,

Pete

[Pan Zareta]

In the case of Stick To Beauty's family, the fall off was sudden and and recent. After Sky Beauty, none of Maplejinsky's foals distinguished themselves. Sky Beauty has been a weak producer. Miraloma had a $2,800,000 foal that was unraced. After Dayjur, all three of Gold Beauty's foals sold for $1,600,000, $1,650,000 and $1,850,00 and have a total of 11 races and 1 win. A lot of money getting burnt at this altar.

Pete, imho the production pattern of Stick to Beauty's line parallels the rapid ascendancy & decline of Little Lie's branch of the same tf clan. Overall, Home Rule's line looks more flamboyant than consistent. Coquinerie nailed their signature characteristic ("spotty"). I've no idea why Lipstick & Pretty Jo merit the reine designation. They were good at producing winners, but had no bt. Fib, on the other hand had 4 sw among 10 foals (all of which raced, nine of which won) - but has not been designated a reine. I don't believe Little Lie's branch was any better at producing highly successful sires either - Mighty Story being about the only prolific one.

Male or female, the less productive members of this clan often wind up in TX. It won't surprise me if Dayjur eventually joins Gold Legend & The Prime Minister.

PZ

P.S. The ASB inaccuracies of greatest interest to me are those that were done deliberately to get a promising pony onto major tracks. Usually it was the sire's name that was falsified, occasionally the dam's, and in a handful of instances, both. Some of these lines are still active in the TB and producing regional stakes winners - but probably not anything that would appear on your radar scope .

[Pete]

Hi Pan,

Some of the reine designations are indeed mystifying and certainly you've pointed out a female line of mystery (no Austin Powers jokes please). Fib would seem to be the reine more than her daughters and grand daughters.

Spotty really describes the stakes production in the line because there was consistency in producing winners.

This line relcaimed once with a 'flamboyant' flash that included Dayjur and Sky Beauty and it's possible that it will happen again, but I'll let someone else resuce it.

Regards,

Pete

[Keith]

Is Illustrious a weak link in Dayjur's pedigree? Illustrious stood for a very low stud fee similar to Poker. As in Pokers case I think there was a throwback to Round Table and Glamour as Poker is the broodmare sire of Seattle Slew and Silver Charm. Illustrious has a very strong pedigree himself as he is by Round Table-Poster Girl by Nasrullah. Round Table himself was a great broodmare sire. I think it goes to show you how influential Round Table is as a broodmare line and the influences of Poster Girl and Glamour. In My Charmer's case she is line bred on the great mare Baby League one of the great daughters of La Troienne and of course My Charmer traces back to Myrtlewood like that of Gold Digger.

Keith

[Pan Zareta]

Is Illustrious a weak link in Dayjur's pedigree? Illustrious stood for a very low stud fee similar to Poker. As in Pokers case I think there was a throwback to Round Table and Glamour as Poker is the broodmare sire of Seattle Slew and Silver Charm. Illustrious has a very strong pedigree himself as he is by Round Table-Poster Girl by Nasrullah. Round Table himself was a great broodmare sire. I think it goes to show you how influential Round Table is as a broodmare line and the influences of Poster Girl and Glamour. In My Charmer's case she is line bred on the great mare Baby League one of the great daughters of La Troienne and of course My Charmer traces back to Myrtlewood like that of Gold Digger.

Illustrious & Poker were 3/4 sibs - both x Round Table - Nasrullah mares. But Poker was from the stronger female family & I think that's one big reason he was the superior as broodmare sire, esp. in AEI. Poster Girl's tf was productive, but simply not the equal of Glamour's. Obviously Illustrious & Poster Girl don't bring the strength of Mr. P. & Gold Digger to the bottom of the pedigree. Note that though Dayjur & Gold Legend may have failed to meet high expectations in the stud, they've certainly outperformed The Prime Minister.

[Pete]

Hi Keith and Pan,

Illustrious and Poker had very similar breeding, both sons of Round Table out of Nasrullah mares that were from well established female families with Poker’s being the stronger family of La Troienne.

It’s very easy to look at a pedigree and pick out the names with less reputation and assume that they’re to blame for weakness in performance or breeding but it’s also impossible to prove this assumption – either way. Poker did nothing to hurt Seattle Slew and Illustrious did nothing to hurt Stick To Beauty. Was Illustrious’ blood part of the reason that this family is failing? Impossible to say but I must consider the fact that the further away from Illustrious these non-performing descendents get, the less likelihood there is that Illustrious is the guilty blood. For Dayjur’s foals Illustrious is in the 4th generation and for Sky Beauty’s, he’s in their 5th generation.

The fact that Poster Girl is from the female family of Bourtai that is also having problems reclaiming itself may make this an interesting blood comparison.

I’d just as soon make the assumption that the balance that Illustrious brought to the pedigree has been lost. Once again this is impossible to prove.

Regards,

Pete

[Keith]

Through Poker and Intriguing you have great mares My Charmer, Bonnie's Poker, Numbered Account, and Playmate. As a broodmare sire Poker and Illustrious bring very strong blood to the mix as far as pedigree. Both are good racehorses so neither is probably to blame because Round Table was not considered a sire of sires but a very good broodmare line similar to Alydar as in the case with Saratoga Six who is very well bred being out of a full sister to Bold Forbes. Growing up at Charles Town I just have seen so several cheap horses racing by Illustrious. Sir Ivor another horse who has not been a sire of sires I remember seeing many cheap horses racing by Sir Ivor Again although Ten Keys was a very good racehorse being out of an Exceedingly mare. Exceedingly had his share of cheap horses too. Looking at Exceedingly's pedigree there are some strong mares as he is by a son of Hildene being out of a Better Self mare as Better Self is a grandson of Baba Kenny and by Bimelech who is out of La Troienne. Do you give much credit to Illustrious much because Stick To Beauty has a very strong broodmare line as she is out of a Hail to Reason mare and her second dam is by Bull Lea. Poker is known for being the broodmare sire of Silver Charm and Seattle Slew but what has he done as a whole during his career as a sire. I do not feel Poker has hurt Seattle Slew because My Charmer is one of the greatest broodmares of all time. If you doubled up on a horse like Poker or Illustrious it would probably be a weakness in a pedigree but who knows? Getting that right mix does not always involve horses with reputation especially when you look at horses like Seabiscuit, Phar Lap, John Henry, Tiznow, Cigar, Prairie Bayou, Beautiful Pleasure, Silver Charm, Mister Frisky, Deputed Testamony, Fran's Valentine, Snow Chief and the list goes on. Looking at Beautiful Bid she is by a Baldski who is by Nijinsky II and out of the great mare Too Bald and Beautiful Bid's 3rd dam Bimlette is out of the great mare Bloodroot and by Bimelech who is out of La Troienne. Beautiful Pleasure on the top side includes great mares Aspidistra and Grey Flight in her pedigree . I really do like Baldski as a broodmare sire.

Keith