Montjeu and El Prado-better than Giant's Causeway and FuPeg?

[FOS]

hi Coquinerie

You wrote "No, I wouldnt breed to him... he's not my "type" of stallion, but that DOES NOT mean he's not worth the price to owners in the top end of the market who want a huge bang for their buck... just like every high stud fee... its the PROMISE of what MAY happen... and he's delivered it more than any stallion this year."

Coquinerie...respectfully...ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...I don't find the case you attempt to make re: Giant's Causeway very compelling. Respectfully again...your comments suggest (to me anyway) that you are either not fully informed or unwilling and/or unable to evaluate ALL the information.

You wrote "Disappointment... hardly."

I suggest...disappointment is a generous understatement.

Coquinerie you wrote "Your opinion... absurdly biased and its been showing more and more after every one of his offspring have won."

I trust that my opinion re: GC is on target (and I certainly welcome all information to consider in the evaluation process). You might agree with me that things can change and/or evolve...but attacking the messenger won't change a thing. I expect that if you availed yourself of thorough and complete, honest and unbiased information regarding GC as a sire, you might actually agree with (if not at the very least understand) my thoughts regarding him. I try to draw from ALL the information...plus insights...experience...etc etc etc.

You have obviously (to my way of thinking) set the bar very low for standards relating to what a sire should accomplish to be worthy of a $200,000+- stud fee.

To me...the case for GC at a jacked-up $200,000+- stud fee is weak (at least for now)...to say the least.

Best to you.

Respectfully

[FOS]

hi LSB

You wrote "I have to love the fact that FOS and llbean think that none of us are entitled to our own opinions unless they agree with theirs. Apparently the only reason that the rest of us don't think GC is a failure is not because we interpret facts differently, but because we've been brainwashed."

It's about the jacked-up $200,000+- stud fee LSB...not whether or not Giant's Causeway is a "failure" (Your choice of word...not mine).

He's NOT good value at his jacked-up $200,000+- stud fee...and you know it.

Sounds to me like you're being disingenuous.

As Cher said in Moonstruck...Snap out of it.

Respectfully

[halo]

FOS writes:


Respectfully...ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...it doesn't seem unreasonable to suggest that both Fusaichi Pegasus and (even moreso) Giant's Causeway lean more in the direction of failure (or at the very least disappointment) than in the direction of success (at least so far).


Failure....your word, nobody elses.

[FOS]

hi halo

I'll take two El Prado's for one Giant's Causeway...

...but I suggest you put up your $200,000 to breed to Giant's Causeway if you like him so much.

Beware though...I expect you might be living on Maalox or Pepto Bismol...or possibly something stronger...for a long time.

Good luck.

halo "direction of failure (or at the very least disappointment)" (as FOS wrote) does not mean "is a failure" (as LSB wrote). Your misrepresentation of facts is very unbecoming of you.

Shame...shame...shame...halo.

Respectfully

[halo]

I assume youre a politician....

[Coquinerie]

I love how people like to trash AP Indy when it's convenient for them. Actually, Coquinerie, Indy has had several years when he has had multiple grade 1 winners. I'm not sure what year it was, but I believe Royal Indy, Tomisue's Delight, Runupthecolors all won grade 1's in the same year; he also gets a large number of graded stakes winners. If you want to chalk it up only to the fact that he gets great mares, so be it, but the proof is in the pudding. By the way, he had 13 SW in his first crop, including Pulpit and Tomisue's Delight - let GC or FP top that.

I am not saying Indy is not a fine stallion, but he's one that is favored by some of the GC detractors and none of his crops have been any better than GC's first crop with the same, if not better, calibre of mares GC has received. Just making a comparison that for whatever reason, GC should have more respect than he does on this board.

[ef]

I'm not really sure where all the venom behind this argument is coming from. Both Montjeu and Giant's Causeway are very promising young sires who have both received good support at stud. Montjeu has 124 first crop foals to Giant's Causeway's 150. Both were brilliant racehorses, and both were very well supported in their first year at stud.

BTW- Giant's Causeway had a nice "Oaks" weekend, with his My Typhoon winning the Virginia Oaks and his maiden filly Mona Lisa finishing third in the Irish Oaks. Interestingly, Mona Lisa defeated favored Dash for the Top (Montjeu) in this race.


While GC only has 5 stakes winners to Montjeu's 9 so far, I think it is premature to be concerned about this. More will come; the class and ability is there.

[llbean]

I am not saying Indy is not a fine stallion, but he's one that is favored by some of the GC detractors and none of his crops have been any better than GC's first crop with the same, if not better, calibre of mares GC has received. Just making a comparison that for whatever reason, GC should have more respect than he does on this board.

Hi Coquinerie,

I very strongly disagree with the statement that AP Indy has never had a better crop than Giant's Causeway's 1st. Consider this:

AP Indy only sired 45 foals in his first crop.
AP Indy has averaged 69.77 foals per a crop from 1994 to 2002.
Giant's Causeway sired 137 foals in his first crop.

Do you actually believe that to be a fair comparision??

Let's compare Giant's Causeway's 1st crop to AP Indy's sire career as a whole:

AP Indy '94-'02 = 628 foals and at least* 16 GIWs.
Giant's Causeway '02 = 147 foals and 3 GIWs.

Therefore AP Indy's lifetime GI Winner Percentage of 2.54% is actually HIGHER than Giant's Causeway's 1st crop Percentage of 2.04%.

Of course I realize that Giant's Causeway is at a disadvantage in this comparision due to his 1st crop being 3YOs; but the way you were talking you'd think Giant's Causeway was doing something AP Indy hasn't and even if you are right in a literal way (aka, if AP Indy hasn't actually sired 3 GIWs in a single crop; oddly you give the impression of having made the assertion without even checking to see if it was true), it means NOTHING in the grand scheme of things as a Giant's Causeway crop is much bigger than a AP Indy crop.

AP Indy has sustatined a higher percentage of GIWs than Giant's Causweway over a far longer time frame; this cannot be denied. And don't get me started on the percentages of Stakes Winners for the two stallions as even if you hacked every AP Indy Stakes Winner who didn't win a Stakes till June of thier 3YO Year I'm almost certain AP Indy's SW stats would be much better than Giant's Causway's on account of G.A.'s percentage of Stakes Winners being so utterly awful at this point.

Perhaps they should Advertise Giant's Causeway thusly:

Get 1/3 The Percentage Of Stakes Winners As AP Indy For 66% Of The Price!!

What a, er, "Bargain"! Why would anyone breed to AP Indy when you can get 33% of his success rate for 66% of the price...??

-llbean

*(I couldn't get AP Indy's lifetime # of GIWs without paying so I just wrote out all the GIWs by AP Indy I could think of and then counted them)

[Coquinerie]

Remember, the season isnt over yet, and I think at the end of the year, GC will be ahead of anything Indy has done (thus far) in one crop. But that doesnt mean I think poorly of Indy, quite opposite... just using a "board" favorite top stallion who received books that have been, for the most part, better than GC's. Of course im not talking long term... you cant with GC, just saying his accomplishments to date should be respected just as Montjeu's should... amazing... both of them. By the way, it wasnt an indy bashing, just making a comparison.

[llbean]

FOS, I dont care if El Prado's first crop had only one foal in it, the fact is that he now has over 600 and the numbers of grade 1 horses are pathetic, at best. Saint Ballado started in Florida with minimal support, Storm Cat started out being all but given away, and they proved they were Grade 1 quality. It didnt take 600 mares to prove it.

Halo,

You neglect to mention that El Prado's two GI Winners are Medaglia D'Oro and Kitten's Joy, who were both significant Eclipse Champions and Millionaires in the United States of America.

Also, I would not term 2 GI Winners out of 594 foals over the age of 2 "pathetic" given that El Prado's Comparable Index is only 1.75. Those simply are not the sort of mares that produce very many GI Winners even if they are bred to a very good stallion like El Prado...

I'll admit that 2 GI Winners out of 594 seems much less impressive than 3 GI Winners out of only 147; but when we compare Giant's Causeway's freakish CI of 3.91 to El Prado's FAR MORE modest CI of 1.75 we see that the comparision is inherently unfair to El Prado and therefore invalid.

If you want to prove El Prado's a rip-off you'll need to show me another stallion with a lifetime CI either at or lower than 1.75 who gets a signficiantly better percentage of GI Winners than El Prado (or who at least gets roughly the same percentage for significantly less money).

For the sake of arguement, I'm willing to go along with your idea that GIs are the only races that matter in evaluating a stallion as it is not entirely unreasonable; but I simply can't go along with the idea that you can compare a stallion like Giant's Causeway, who has been bred to a bountius supply of Well Pedigreed Mares and Proven Producers, to a stallion like El Prado who has had to work his way up from the pits.

THE AVERAGE HALF-SIBLING TO A GIANT'S CAUESWAY FOAL HAS EARNED MORE THAN TWICE THAT OF THE AVERAGE EL PRADO FOAL'S HALF-SIBLINGS.

-llbean

[llbean]

Of course im not talking long term... you cant with GC, just saying his accomplishments to date should be respected just as Montjeu's should... amazing... both of them.

Coquinerie,

You may very well be correct that Giant's Causeway is "amazing", however it cannot be denied that at this point Montjeu is sgnificantly MORE amazing.

Consider this:

1. Montjeu's 80 First-Crop Foals have earned MORE MONEY than Giant's Causeway's 147 First-Crop Foals. NOT More Money Per Foal, More Money PERIOD.

2. Montjeu Has Sired 3 GIWs, Which Is Equal To Giant's Causeway's Haul In Spite Of Giant's Causeway Siring 67 More Foals Than Montjeu In His First Crop.

3. Montjeu's First crop Includes MORE Stakes Winners Than Giant's Causeway's First Crop In Spite Of Giant's Causeway's Crop Being 83% Bigger.

4. Montjeu Has 3 Out Of His 3 GIWs Still In Training As Against Giant's Causeway Only Having 1 Of His 3 Still In Training.

Some mares may match up better with Giant's Causeway I suppose; but besides that I there is simply no rational reason I can think of that would drive someone to breed to Giant's Causeway if Montjeu was available.

And it goes without saying that Montjeu's significantly lower stud fee would more than make up for the additional travel expenses/insurance involved in sending your mare to England to be bred!

Of course I speak more from the perspective of breeding to race... If you're breeding for the market in America I can't recommend either Animal (though I'd prefer Montjeu of the two if forced to choose on account of his FAR more reasonable stud fee).

-llbean

[LSB]

hi LSB
Sounds to me like you're being disingenuous.

So now you're calling me a liar because I had the temerity to say that I disagreed with you?

[halo]

LLbean writes: If you want to prove El Prado's a rip-off you'll need to show me another stallion with a lifetime CI either at or lower than 1.75 who gets a signficiantly better percentage of GI Winners than El Prado (or who at least gets roughly the same percentage for significantly less money).
___________________________

Montbrooks CI is 1.63, he has 2 Gr. 1 winners and a Grade 1 placed out of 344 foals (per the Blood HOrse Stallion REgister of 2005)

Cozzene' CI is 1.80, he has 6 Gr. 1 winners from 714 foals (also per the Blood HOrse S.R.)

Pleasant Tap CI is 1.80, he has 4 Grade 1 winners from 391 foals (also as above)

Silver Ghost CI is 1.52, he has 3 Grade 1 winners from 547 foals

Runaway Groom CI is 1.38, he has 4 Grade 1 winners from 928 foals

Quiet American CI is 1.88, he has 3 Grade 1 winners from 469 foals

Mr. Greeley CI is 1.69, he has 4 Grade 1 winners from 427 foals.

All of these stand for far far less than El Prado's $100,000.

[FOS]

hi LSB

You quote me as saying:
hi LSB
Sounds to me like you're being disingenuous.

I quote your response to me:
"So now you're calling me a liar because I had the temerity to say that I disagreed with you?"

LSB...I have NEVER called you a LIAR. And furthermore the word Disingenuous does not mean Liar.

dis-in-gen-u-ous ... lacking in frankness, candor, or sincerity; insincere

What I wrote to you LSB was "(Giant's Causeway's) NOT good value at his jacked-up $200,000+- stud fee...and you know it." "Sounds to me like you're being disingenuous."
LSB...why did I use the word disingenuous?

Because on April 12, 2005 1:24 pm YOU wrote "Much as I have always liked Giant's Causeway, at this moment in his career, I wouldn't dream of paying 200K to breed to him."

I rest my case !!!

Respectfully

[llbean]

LLbean writes: If you want to prove El Prado's a rip-off you'll need to show me another stallion with a lifetime CI either at or lower than 1.75 who gets a signficiantly better percentage of GI Winners than El Prado (or who at least gets roughly the same percentage for significantly less money).
___________________________

Montbrooks CI is 1.63, he has 2 Gr. 1 winners and a Grade 1 placed out of 344 foals (per the Blood HOrse Stallion REgister of 2005)

Cozzene' CI is 1.80, he has 6 Gr. 1 winners from 714 foals (also per the Blood HOrse S.R.)

Pleasant Tap CI is 1.80, he has 4 Grade 1 winners from 391 foals (also as above)

Silver Ghost CI is 1.52, he has 3 Grade 1 winners from 547 foals

Runaway Groom CI is 1.38, he has 4 Grade 1 winners from 928 foals

Quiet American CI is 1.88, he has 3 Grade 1 winners from 469 foals

Mr. Greeley CI is 1.69, he has 4 Grade 1 winners from 427 foals.

All of these stand for far far less than El Prado's $100,000.

Hi Halo,

You make a very good point; there is no good excuse for El Prado being a worse sire of GI Winners than those 7 stallion who have all gotten roughly the same or worse quality mares than him and who stand for significantly lower stud fees than he does. And given the importance of GI Winners to determining the commercial appeal or lack thereof of a stallion this should be a cause of at least some concern to anyone considering El Prado at $100,000 right now.

The fundamental reason El Prado can be standing at 100,000 in spite getting a poor (relative to his stud fee) percentage of GIWs in simply this: he happened to get a couple of Major "Headline" type horses (Medaglia D'Oro and Kitten's Joy) in quick succession.

If he fails to significantly improve his GIW percentage in spite of the nicer mares he's now getting bred to his stud fee could be taken down quite a few notches and that is something to be very leery about in regards to breeding to him at this point in time...

Some people would no doubt make excuses for El Prado only getting two GIWs on account of his excellent AEI/CI of 2.22/1.74 indicating him as a "improver" of his mares. However, it takes much more for a horse to win a GI than it does for him to earn an above average amount of money. You are quite correct that a very important question in evaluating a stallion is how they respond when pushed by running against the best.

Kitten's Joy is perfectly all right in this catagory, Medaglia D'Oro was better than most horses but had a serious problem with getting the job done against the best (I'd feel much better about El Prado if MDO didn't finish 2nd and 3rd so much...).

Still, here's a list comparing El Prado to the other seven stallions in regards to thier AEI (I'm not saying this justifies El Prado's much higher fee but it at least makes it more understandable):

Cozzene 2.53/1.78
El Prado 2.22/1.74
Montbrook 1.88/1.62
Quiet American 1.82/1.87
Pleasant Tap 1.80/1.79
Runaway Groom 1.63/1.38
Silver Ghost 1.50/1.52
Mr Greeley 1.49/1.74

Here's El Prado compared to the rest by the percentage of GSW:

Cozzene 30/793 (3.78%)
El Prado 19/649 (2.92%)
Runaway Groom (2.86%)
Pleasant Tap (2.63%)
Quiet American 14/533 (2.62%)
Montbrook 10/430 (2.32%)
Mr Greeley 10/580 (1.72%)
Silver Ghost 7/614 (1.14%)

Going on the percentage of graded Stakes Winners, Cozzene (who is far ahead of the pack) and Runaway Groom (who overcame CI of 1.38 that is significantly lower than any of the stallion even CLOSE to him on the list) are clearly the best. Still, El Prado is easily number three and his figure is good for a stallion who only has 10 crops of racing age (is it 100,000 worth of good though?? That's another question...).

Pleasant Tap is also very good relative to his number of crops (which is the exact same # as El Prado), but his problem is a lack of commercial appeal and this combined with a lack of Champions (and significantly lower overall earnings), help explain why a stallion getting a higher percentge of GIWs than El Prado and a very similar percentage of GSWs as El Prado from roughly the same quality of mares as El Prado is standing for 1/10th the stud fee...

Still, if you're breeding to race Pleasant Tap is clearly a better deal than El Prado and Cozzene is a WAY better deal than El Prado...

American Breeders have a nonsensical bias against older stallions and the relative stud fees of Cozzene (50,000) and El Prado (100,000) reflect that.

-llbean