Northern Afleet's Stud Fee

[Coquinerie]

ZiaLand, I've been watching Leestown for a while too. It looks to me as though he has accomplished a lot without having a great deal in the way of opportunity. I've been wondering when the "big boys" in Kentucky were going to catch on to him.

My thoughts exactly... remove Indy out of the picture and he'd be the first Slew son I would go too... too good of a pedigree to ignore and has done too much with too little to not consider, even if it means shipping a mare down to LA FROM KY.

[bcassidy]

Zialand--I don't have data on Leestown yet but I will be glad to see if I can collect the data for you. It may take a couple of days but I will get back to you as soon as I have the data analyzed. Please let me know if one of his offspring is going to race soon, that would be a huge help to me.

[brogers]

Bcassidy

Nothern Afleet's service fee will be set, along with the other Taylor Made and Taylor Made/WinStar stallions, after the Breeders' Cup.

As far as how much it will be - hard to say other than it will be a rise on his 04 fee where he served 160 mares and could have served 400 such was the demand!

Afleet Alex will clearly make a difference to the service fee for 06 but his performances need to be supported with other horses along with sale ring returns. Elusive Quality didn't get to the fee he is at just off Smarty Jones. We are hoping the likes of Saint Afleet, GP Fleet, Unforgettable Max, Kelsey's Treasure and a couple of unraced horses that we know have ability can support Afleet Alex's performances in the latter part of 2005 to solidify his position in Kentucky.

Unlike some other farms we are a farm that has a high percentage of the mares bred to our stallions, have commerically sold offspring so we have to set a fee that is reflective of current and future returns in the sale ring also. This is a challenge we need to meet with Northern Afleet as it will be some time before his better bred crops hit the yearling ring. His yearlings this year are a larger group than he has previously had reach the sale ring but their pedigrees are no better in quality than some of his first crops to sell which numbered only 40 foals. Thus when yearling buyers go to the sale ring this year to buy a Northern Afleet they may well find difficulty in paying big money for a horse whose pedigree isn't as strong as they might like to see. I personally think that it is a great testament to the horse that he can get the job done with these types of mares. However, this is going to impact on his yearling average which makes it difficult for us to get too aggressive on the service fee from the commerical angle.

This year we got a great book of mares to him. We have had the Jockey Club run a C.I on this crop and it came back at 2.11 which is what stallions get that stand for $20-$25,000 so we are pretty confident that the future looks bright for the horse. It just may take some time for the sale ring returns which are a factor for us on setting a fee, to catch up with his racetrack results which are very solid of modest (quality and number of) mares

Our clients and our own money are tied up in the success and failure of every stallion we stand all along the way. For every failure that someone so kindly pointed out in a previous post there are successes like Unbridled's Song, Forestry and Saint Ballado. At any rate we are going to be very careful to set a fee which can realistically:

1) Meet demand
2) Attract quality mares
3) Be reflective of current and future sale ring returns

Not an easy one to manage but it is more likely that like Speightstown (who had 400 applications also) we will slightly underprice the horse so demand is strong and we can secure a book closer to the 120 we like to serve with our stallions and make sure that they are the best 120 mares we can get for a stallion standing at his service fee.

[FOS]

hi brogers

You wrote "For every failure that someone so kindly pointed out in a previous post there are successes like Unbridled's Song, Forestry and Saint Ballado. At any rate we are going to be very careful to set a fee which can realistically:

1) Meet demand
2) Attract quality mares
3) Be reflective of current and future sale ring returns"


Respectfully brogers...some of your commentary sounds like an attempt at sugar-coating. And is it possible that you're understating and/or ignoring what some might consider to be information of note. For starters, I suggest that Taylor Made's failures on the stallion-side outnumber the successes...at least as far as many breeders might be concerned. Maybe Taylor Made and Mr Paragallo and Mr Jones have fared well though overall...I expect so.

And regarding Number 3 on your list above "Be reflective of current and future sale ring returns"...hmmm...I guess perception is reality. With that in mind, maybe you could tell us about the first crop yearling colt by Exploit that appeared to sell at Fasig-Tipton for $500,000+-. I guess that helped his sales average...hmmm...what was that all about?

And what about the trusting clients that were left holding the bag after they were directed by the staff to breed to Our Emblem at $35k...and Artax at $30k...and Exploit...and Storm Creek...and Danjur...and what about Saint Ballado at $125,000 when he was COLD AS A WITCH'S...OUCH.

Yes Saint Ballado has some very nice racehorses NOW...but years ago his stud fee was suddenly bumped dramatically and he was RIDICULOUSLY overpriced at $125,000. To a large degree it might be fair to say that breeders were uninterested in the horse at that number...and you might agree, many comments (re: Saint Ballado and his $125,000 stud fee etc) were less than complimentary (maybe an understatement). SB died.

That's old news now...but by including Saint Ballado on your list of successes (which he was) you might be creating a perception that he was good value even at $125,000. I suggest...that's a strrreeeeettccch if there ever was one...hmmm. A good stallion YES...considered by many at that time to be RIDICULOUSLY overpriced...YES again. See...you can have it both ways...but at that time, I suggest...it backfired.

And thanks for being so considerate in leaving Tiznow's stud fee at $30,000...what a bargain...and directing trusting clients to Yankee Victor at $15,000...I'm sure all those lucky breeders would like to thank you personally for the valuable consultation and consideration.

Tongue-in-cheek aside...you make some good points in your commentary...but reality is that Taylor Made has earned a reputation for leaving MANY clients holding the bag with what might be perceived as self-serving recommendations. It appears that many former TM clients have retreated...and that some not-so-kind words seem to have peppered the landscape.

It will be very interesting to watch and observe what Taylor Made does with Northern Afleet.

But beware...history has an interesting way of all-too-often repeating itself.

Good luck.

Respectfully

[austique]

Am I the only one a tad concerned with the percentage of starters and winners this horse gets? I even subtracted out the 2yo crop and the numbers were still around 50% starters from foals and 37% winners. I don't really like those odds even from a horse who started in a regional market.

[halo]

Byron, it was so nice to meet you today and have the opportunity to show you and Eduardo my foals. Hard to believe you left hotter weather than what you came upon down here. Thanks also for your long thoughtful post. Im sure most here appreciate your insights as one of the top players in the breeding business.

[bcassidy]

Brogers---thanks for your interesting post. I did speak with one blood stock agent about Taylor Made's attempt to downplay Northern Afleet's yearling crop this year because most of this crop hails from mares in Florida where the pedigrees were not that strong. I find it very interesting and somewhat unfortunate for Taylor Made, that the very horse you should be pushing hard you will go softer on. I certainly understand the circumstances that have caused this strategy to be required, I just think your timing is off because the industry doesn't have a quantitative tool to analyze a stallion's performance. I have developed my own tool and Northern Afleet is nothing short of amazing. I suspect some buyers will get great deals on NA's yearlings this year because so many people are discounting the pedigrees of the mares he covered in Florida. I would like to go on record as being the first to say BIG MISTAKE. This stallion can outproduce the mares he has covered and some lucky buyers will get great racehorses at bargain basement prices. Just my humble opinion, but I want to go on the record. It's too easy to do it after the fact. Good Luck with Northern Afleet but in this case I don't think any luck will be required!

[austique]

Brendan,

Can you explain to me why as a breeder I shouldn't be put off by this horses numbers as far as % of starters and % of winners? It just seems like his foals may not be that sound and its kind of unfair to blame it solely on the mares he covered in Florida. I'm not even taking Afleet Alex into account as that was just a "stuff happens" sort of injury.

With Regards,
Shannon

[halo]

Shannon, I dont know where you got your numbers from, but I checked BRIS free stallion directory, and not counting this years 2 year olds, he has 127 foals, 91 starters, and 72 winners.

[austique]

Bad math. My bad

[bcassidy]

Thanks for the assist Halo!

[cathyd]

very interested in what bcassidy has to say
been watching Leestown also
he has another 1/2 brother in Pa. Wild West 1st foals arrived this year
cathyd

[ZiaLand]

*** bump ***

Bcassidy, have you had a chance yet to do your analysis of Leestown? Just curious. Thanks!

Laurie

[bcassidy]

zialand-I am having trouble getting the data on his offspring that have already run. Do you know when one of his offspring will be running again. If someone knows when one of his offspring will be running, it would be a huge help to me if they could let me know when and where it is running.
As soon as I do get the results on Leestown, I will let you know what I think of him, I hope to have something soon for you.

[ZiaLand]

Bcassidy, I can't access my virtual stable right now to add some of Leestown's kids and let you know when they're entered, but here are some of his runners...

Old Lee (2001)
Merry Mary (2001)
Leesa Lee (?)
Equestrian Girls (2002)
Leestown Light (?)

He's standing at Red River Farm in Louisiana.

Laurie