Bluegrass Cat standing for $50,000 - can you justify this?

[ASB]

ASB, how silly of me to think that foal earnings should mean anything when comparing stallions and the value they offer.

I could pay $5,000 to get to Pioneering and get an average earner of $51,000, or I could pay $60,000 to get to Hennessy and get an average earner of $78,000. How silly of me to think that extra $55,000 to Hennessy earning me $27,000 more on average means anything.

Actually, AP Indys are either very good or very big and unsound. You can't knock the good ones, but there are just too many others that are either unraced or have unsoundness throughout their careers.

I did not say it didnt have its worth to breeders... in fact I think its VERY important... but the higher the CI, the more unlikely the AEI is going to match it, yet surpass it.

Its an invaluable tool especially for the smaller breeders... true breed to race types are saved by it. No question!

Lets face it, if you had the best Pioneering and then you had the best Hennessy, which one is more than likely going to be much better?

And just to clear it up, in your estimation, Hennessy isnt worth the chance at 60k but Indy is at 300k because he gets a big horse a small amount of time?

I happen to think they're both quite solid, but I wont be breeding to Indy next year... not unless I sell one of the mares... so i'd rather gamble with a Hennessy type.

Again, to re-iterate... AEI is VERY VALUABLE... but you cant possibly use it as an end-all in deciding whats a failure and whats not. By the way, 2 years ago, Rahy had a negative comparison... its very fluid from year to year.

Great discussion all.

Ok, that was my final word... PROMISE! God bless to all!

[geowarrior]

Wow! So many posts since I last looked here. I almost forgot which one I wanted to comment on. But what I wanted to say was with respect to Giant's Causeway. It's not the horse's fault that he has been grossly overpriced, and it's early days yet to write him off as a useful stallion in terms of producing good racehorses (as opposed to pretty ones that sell). People are far too quick to write off stallions who don't show up well on the first crop sire list. That is detrimental to the breed because the bias is against late maturing, stamina producing sires who are on their way to foreign lands pretty much at the third crop stage before their true contributions can really be assessed.

[Rokeby Forever]

Geowarrior, your thinking is, unfortunately, as archaic as mine. The sire that sires late developing foals is no longer wanted....everyone wants to win the BC Juvenile and then take the money and run. Dynaformer is a tremendous stallion....but people will pay 5X or 10X more for a Forestry yearling.

Let's face it - it's the 2 year old breakdown or 3 year old washup that becomes the rave in the buying world when they look to a new sire - is there any better proof of that than Sky Mesa, whose foals sold like crazy in 2006? How about how the Vindications sold in 2006? And, that's what buyers look to buy...an early horse that can get shuttled off to stud. The days of the 5 year old handicap horse going to stud and becoming successful are long over.

If you look at races like the Brooklyn Handicap, what runs in it? Usually geldings or horses that don't have commercial breeding value. It's because the "better" bred horses have either broken down or retired before they're old enough to run in the Brooklyn Handicap. It's a race that owners looking to sell a horse to become a stallion don't want to win any more.

That's the best explanation I can give on why people don't want sires that produce late developing foals.

[geowarrior]

My thinking may be archaic, and I'm aware that industry trends are dictated by the breed to sell crowd rather than the breed to race bunch, however if one is thinking in terms of the strength of the breed, I don't necessarily think 'archaic' is wrong.

[Rokeby Forever]

Geowarrior, you took the words out of my mouth.

Let's look at the posts just from this message thread - ASB says he'd rather take his chances on a Hennessy than an AP Indy. Forgetting the difference in stud fee, consider: Hennessy was an early breakdown that sires "early" foals, and AP Indy sires more late developing type foals. That's the thinking among 99% of breeders today that breed to sell.

And...the sire that gets the most two year olds to the races will get the raised stud fee....Johannesburg is a pretty good example.

The Met Mile used to be a "breeders" race (It didn't always produce good sires ala Czaravich), but it was thought that the race needed speed and stamina to win it. Today, the Hopeful has become a "breeders" race - didn't Sky Mesa become a stallion from a victory in the Hopeful?

Funny thing about the Hopeful....people often talk about the "Breeders Cup Juvenile Curse," but Affirmed was the last winner of the Hopeful to win the KY Derby...maybe there's a "Hopeful Curse!. " LOL!!!!

[ASB]

Let's not twist what I said...

At 300k, you CANNOT ignore the stud fee. My point was, at 60k, you're more likely to turn a bigger profit for a breeder in my position. Instead of breeding one mare to Indy and hoping for the best, I can send 4 to Hennessy and better my chances of that big foal.

I've done nothing but talk A.P. Indy, but for someone who seems to live and die by AEI, you should hate him, right?

The only thing consistent about your posts is the hatred for Storm Cat... everything else seems very "fluid" into which ever which way it can best suit your argument.

Like Halo said, you're obviously not a breeder and it shows. Having opinions is fine, but dont let them become ignorance.

[Keith]

A.P. Indy

Sire of

Bernardini-Winner of Preakness S., Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup
Mineshaft-Horse of The Year
Aptitude-Sire of Steppenwolfer and Great Hunter
Malibu Moon- sire of Declan's Moon and Malibu Mint
Stephen Got Even- sire of Stevie Wonderboy and Don't Get Mad
Old Trieste-sire of Silver Train and Sinister Minister
Pulpit-sire of Purge,Stroll,Sky Mesa,Tapit, and Essence of Dubai

How is A.P. Indy a failure?
Overpriced-Yes
Sire of 94 Stakes Winners-12%
He sires Champions and is the grandsire of Champions


None of the sire of sires today compare to Northern Dancer or Mr. Prospector.

It is not A.P. Indy's fault that some people think that breeding the best to the best will get you the most success without regarding the right crosses. Nicking should not be as simple as breeding a certain sire line to a broodmare sire line without regards to what the female line best crosses with what line of stallions. You also have to look at breeding similar type horses when it comes to conformation. Some people breed their great mares to A.P. Indy whether he is the right fit for their mare or not. Great mares have alot to do with making great stallions. You also have to give credit to A.P. Indy who has four great mares in his first three generations

Weekend Surprise
Somethingroyal
Lassie Dear
My Charmer

It takes two to make a champion

Keith

[Rokeby Forever]

Keith:

AP Indy is siring 12% stakes winners, has a 3.24 AEI, sired 4 champions and 10 millionaires. For the same $300,000, I'll take him in a heartbeat over Giant's Causeway with a 2.10 AEI, 4% stakes winners, and just 2 millionaires.

AP Indy's CI is 4.01, an astronomical number to replicate, but his average earnings/runner is over $135,000 - better than Storm Cat's $113,000. AP Indy isn't a bargain at $300,000, but comparatively, he's a steal.

I didn't twist your words around....I was pointing out how the market dictates to breeders that they're better off breeding to an "early" sire as opposed to a "late" sire. People want two year old speed...that's a fact of life. There's no other reason why people will pay $225,000 this year to get to Unbridled's Song - trying to come up with a speedy foal that can win some "early" stakes before bad feet catches up with it. The market will pay more than 2X his stud fee hoping for just that.

I think it's rather ignorant to keep thinking that Storm Cat at age 24 is ever going to sire anything close to an AP Indy type sire. And it's rather ignorant to overlook how 95% of Storm Cat sons bring down the mares that they're bred to.

AEI is definitely more of a factor with the "breed to race" sires, because higher end buyers don't really care about it - they want that one colt that can win some early stakes and get shuttled off to stud - the "holy grail," if you will. Johannesburg sired a lot of "early" winners in his first crop to race, and his stud fee more than doubled for 2007 based on it. There aren't many of his winners that I'd call "quality" at this point, but if someone can come up with a Scat Daddy, he'd be more than happy. Will they improve at 3 and achieve a better AEI for Johannesburg? Nobody seems to care...based on the jump in stud fee, nobody's willing to wait and see. I wouldn't expect it to happen, either....Storm Cat retired early at 3, Hennessy retired at 2, Johannesburg was never the same after his BC Juvie win and retired early, and his foals are likely to retire early. Can you deny it?

So, are we clear how I used your words, but didn't twist them around?

[Rokeby Forever]

Oops...that last message was more written in response to ASB.

There's another discussion on the big board about Exploit. The author is absolutely right....I remember the hooplah about him entering stud - undefeated, ran faster than the BC Juvie was run that year, a "can't miss sire." Can't miss, huh? I hope he enjoys eating Korean food along with Menifee. Another Storm Cat "Can't miss" stallion that helps to fill $10,000 claimers with his offspring.

[ASB]

Who was saying Exploit was a "cant miss"??? Absolutely NO one I know or respect. Look at his pedigree. Its not exactly a stallions pedigree, but his very good dam had already proven capable of getting a solid if not slightly average stallion.

[Rokeby Forever]

You don't remember all the talk about Exploit? Hmm....

Upon retirement, Exploit's first book of mares had the 2nd-highest Comparable index among first-year sires. His first-crop weanlings sold for an average of $154,000.

No hooplah, huh? OK...if you say so.

[amanda1]

I think this is getting a little bit silly.....

Everyone has their opinions on what makes or breaks a stallion, and there are always the "commercial" stallions vs. the "breed to race" stallions.

SOMEONE on this board has a complex......LET IT GO, you are never going to convince anyone else to think like you think. Comparing racehorses, sire or otherwise, rarely produces any solid conclusions.