Kimberly Mine
Which stallion, Not For Love in Maryland or Cozzenein in Kentucky, would you predict has been gettin the better mares.
Very similar stats, including average 2 Yo sales stats with $25k and $35k stud fees..
Lastly a Mr P son out of a multiple G-1 stakes winning daughter of Northern Dancer!!
griff
Not For Love
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
Im not sure why you keep bringing up the Mr. Prospector out of a G1 winning daughter of Northern Dancer comment. His two full brothers, Personal Escort and Rhythm were both underwhelming as stallions as is Gold Crest who has the same exact cross.
Further more, if there's one kink in the Northern Dancer stallion record, it's as a broodmare sire of sires. He's been exceptionally weak in that department considering the class of animal he was bred to and produced himself.
Furthermore, comparing the mares that Not For Love and Cozzene have received is ridiculous. Two completely different type of mares. Cozzene has and will always considered a turf stallion. He saw, for the most part, turf and european mares, or mares that hadn't produced a good runner on the dirt, and he was somewhat of a last resort.
Not For Love has always seen speedy dirt mares. Does he get runners on the turf? Yes. But so does every other son of Mr. Prospector.
With that logic, who would you THINK would have better results in a two year old sale, knowing its all about speed on dirt?
Further more, if there's one kink in the Northern Dancer stallion record, it's as a broodmare sire of sires. He's been exceptionally weak in that department considering the class of animal he was bred to and produced himself.
Furthermore, comparing the mares that Not For Love and Cozzene have received is ridiculous. Two completely different type of mares. Cozzene has and will always considered a turf stallion. He saw, for the most part, turf and european mares, or mares that hadn't produced a good runner on the dirt, and he was somewhat of a last resort.
Not For Love has always seen speedy dirt mares. Does he get runners on the turf? Yes. But so does every other son of Mr. Prospector.
With that logic, who would you THINK would have better results in a two year old sale, knowing its all about speed on dirt?
Don't be so humble - you are not that great.
-
kimberley mine
- Breeder's Cup Contender
- Posts: 1811
- Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2005 8:43 pm
Griff, if you want to play the AEI/CI game...it's not just about getting better mares, it's also about how well you do with the mare opportunity you get. Not For Love has done well with his opportunities, but he's NOT getting crap mares. Evansville Slew gets crap mares. Not For Love gets a better book than Indian Charlie, Slew City Slew, Northern Afleet, Pure Prize, E Dubai, and Successful Appeal.
Presently Not For Love has an average earnings index of 1.83 to a comparable index of 1.52...30% improvement.
Cozzene has an average earnings index of 2.41 to a comparable index of 1.74...67% improvement (and the mares are better, but not 67% better than your average NFL mare).
In other words, if your hypothetical statistical average Not For Love foal earns $100,000 on the track, the hypothetical Cozzene foal would earn $167,000. In hard dollars terms, at their current fees you could pay $25,000 for a Not For Love, or pay $10,000 more for a Cozzene and get almost twice the earnings power.
I'm having difficulty understanding your comments that Cozzene and Not For Love have very similar stats. In every aspect except median earnings (which could have many explanations and can't be delved into here), Cozzene has outperformed Not For Love as a stallion. With respect to 2yo sales, Cozzene is a well-enough established stallion for folks to know that his kids aren't especially early, so you won't see many of them in 2yo-in-training sales. He's had one up for sale this year and three sold last year. Not much from which to base a statistically valid sample.
I'm not arguing that Not For Love is a bad stallion. However, he's got a $25k stud fee because he's a big fish in a small pond. Were he standing in Kentucky with the same performance (particularly the stakes winners) he'd probably have a fee more in line with Mutakkdim, Royal Academy, Pleasant Tap, and Sky Classic.
It bears mentioning that the original poster asked about Not For Love as a potential mate for his filly, who recently won a 6f stakes on the grass at Belmont. Would Not For Love, a dirt speedster be a good mate for her based on his pedigree and sire record? Maybe so, maybe no, and so this whole post is a discussion of his record (for good or ill). I personally think there are better values (both racing performance and sales minded) out there for similar or less money, and who would suit his filly's pedigree equally well as Not For Love.
Finally, which is best:
A son of Mr Prospector out of a grade 1 winning Northern Dancer mare?
A son of a Kentucky Derby winner out of a La Troienne-line mare and a 3/4 brother to a Kentucky Derby winner?
A Breeders Cup Mile winner whose half-sister birthed Storm Cat?
A son of an English Triple Crown winner out of a broodmare of the year who is a half-brother to three other champions?
A son of a French group winner out of a mare whose sire's daughters produced 9 champions and 163 other stakes winners?
It all depends on what your breeding goals are.
Presently Not For Love has an average earnings index of 1.83 to a comparable index of 1.52...30% improvement.
Cozzene has an average earnings index of 2.41 to a comparable index of 1.74...67% improvement (and the mares are better, but not 67% better than your average NFL mare).
In other words, if your hypothetical statistical average Not For Love foal earns $100,000 on the track, the hypothetical Cozzene foal would earn $167,000. In hard dollars terms, at their current fees you could pay $25,000 for a Not For Love, or pay $10,000 more for a Cozzene and get almost twice the earnings power.
I'm having difficulty understanding your comments that Cozzene and Not For Love have very similar stats. In every aspect except median earnings (which could have many explanations and can't be delved into here), Cozzene has outperformed Not For Love as a stallion. With respect to 2yo sales, Cozzene is a well-enough established stallion for folks to know that his kids aren't especially early, so you won't see many of them in 2yo-in-training sales. He's had one up for sale this year and three sold last year. Not much from which to base a statistically valid sample.
I'm not arguing that Not For Love is a bad stallion. However, he's got a $25k stud fee because he's a big fish in a small pond. Were he standing in Kentucky with the same performance (particularly the stakes winners) he'd probably have a fee more in line with Mutakkdim, Royal Academy, Pleasant Tap, and Sky Classic.
It bears mentioning that the original poster asked about Not For Love as a potential mate for his filly, who recently won a 6f stakes on the grass at Belmont. Would Not For Love, a dirt speedster be a good mate for her based on his pedigree and sire record? Maybe so, maybe no, and so this whole post is a discussion of his record (for good or ill). I personally think there are better values (both racing performance and sales minded) out there for similar or less money, and who would suit his filly's pedigree equally well as Not For Love.
Finally, which is best:
A son of Mr Prospector out of a grade 1 winning Northern Dancer mare?
A son of a Kentucky Derby winner out of a La Troienne-line mare and a 3/4 brother to a Kentucky Derby winner?
A Breeders Cup Mile winner whose half-sister birthed Storm Cat?
A son of an English Triple Crown winner out of a broodmare of the year who is a half-brother to three other champions?
A son of a French group winner out of a mare whose sire's daughters produced 9 champions and 163 other stakes winners?
It all depends on what your breeding goals are.