Giant's Causeway a best bargin at 125k?!?!

[bdw0617]

With the rapid nosedive Giant's Causeway has taken over the last 2 years, coupled with the major loss of face equated with lowering the stud fee that dramatically, $125,000 is still too much for him. I think for $5,000, I'd take a shot with Noble Causeway. The owner is buying up all kinds of mares for him, so he will probably get a book befitting a pricier stallion. So he should have every chance to be successful. As far as GC, all you can hope is that if you breed to him now, the foals produced from the matings at the $300,000 fee will be running and doing well by the time you're ready to sell your baby, regaining some respect for Giant's Causeway.

if you put a gun to my head and made me choose anything with any connection to Giant's Causeway I would run towards After Market at 30k.. both by storm cat out of Rahy mares, after market having the better mare

[bdw0617]

I still think that Magnificience is overrated until proven otherwise. Is she faster than La Traviata? Ummm......

Yes.. I think magnifiacne would have given Midnight lute hell in the TVG sprint. and that's assumign she can't go 2 turns. Roke you must not have seen her two races. they literarly blow away anything I've seen..ANYTHING.. for a LONG time.. and I sit here and watch races all day. she's very, very, VERY special.

[Rokeby Forever]

I saw her races...and I can't remember a filly that she ever beat. The three year old fillies in California this year weren't much to write home about.

Did you see any of La Traviata's races prior to the F/M Sprint (where she clearly hated the mud)? Those races were against some quality...and she didn't even break a sweat running that fast. I'm not even sure that Magnificence would have beaten Dream Rush in the Test Stakes. Magnificence ran fast against lightweights - it's a different story when a horse has to run fast against quality.

[bdw0617]

I saw her races...and I can't remember a filly that she ever beat. The three year old fillies in California this year weren't much to write home about.

Did you see any of La Traviata's races prior to the F/M Sprint (where she clearly hated the mud)? Those races were against some quality...and she didn't even break a sweat running that fast. I'm not even sure that Magnificence would have beaten Dream Rush in the Test Stakes. Magnificence ran fast against lightweights - it's a different story when a horse has to run fast against quality.

roke, that's like asking maven did she see the shoe sale.. OF COURSE i saw the race.. she's a very, very good filly. but I didn't get that same feeling as watching magnifiance. that feeling I had when I saw Ghostzapper win in record times. i dont' care who she did or didnt' beat... it's not like it was close. magnifiance could have ran her last furlong in 13 seconds and still won by 4 lenghts..

ah... but unlike the past.. SHE is coming back so we will settle it on the track

[Rokeby Forever]

I've seen A LOT of fast horses win their first and/or second starts, but when they look other good ones in the eye, they can't always compete at a higher level - that's why I'd prefer to see Magnificence face some quality fillies before I think of her as anything more than a promising filly. I've seen lots young horses look GREAT against nobodies, but they couldn't take it to the next level. That's why those types of horses get forgotten pretty quickly.

What was Maimonides after his first start...a worldbeater. Now when top two year olds are mentioned, nobody even mentions his name. Was his first start a true indication of his ability, or was that all he had to offer? We'll have to wait and see.

[bdw0617]

I've seen A LOT of fast horses win their first and/or second starts, but when they look other good ones in the eye, they can't always compete at a higher level - that's why I'd prefer to see Magnificence face some quality fillies before I think of her as anything more than a promising filly. I've seen lots young horses look GREAT against nobodies, but they couldn't take it to the next level. That's why those types of horses get forgotten pretty quickly.

What was Maimonides after his first start...a worldbeater. Now when top two year olds are mentioned, nobody even mentions his name. Was his first start a true indication of his ability, or was that all he had to offer? We'll have to wait and see.

you are comparing apples to grapes roke.

Maimonides' first race was impressive to people who don't know how to handicap. you even said it yourself, he finished in a pretty avg time and the 2nd place horse came in like 1:06 in a 5 1/2 race.. he didn't blow anyone a race, that race was a visual mirage. all open length victors aren't equal.

I personally never thought Maimonides would be a GREAT horse and espically after that first race.. but I thought he was good for a first time out win ticket.. i couldn't even get that at thoose piss poor odds.

all I'm sayin.. she got a 107 beyer for crying out loud. show her SOME respect. i can count on my hand how many horses have done better all year. and that was her 2nd race.

[Rokeby Forever]

all I'm sayin.. she got a 107 beyer for crying out loud. show her SOME respect. i can count on my hand how many horses have done better all year. and that was her 2nd race.

Don't hand me Beyers - Summer Doldrums got a 106 Beyer last winter and it was later downgraded to a 93 - after Lawrence The Roman was retired after the race and nobody ran back from it to do anything. As soon as Magnificence gets beaten, watch how fast that 107 is lowered.

[bdw0617]

all I'm sayin.. she got a 107 beyer for crying out loud. show her SOME respect. i can count on my hand how many horses have done better all year. and that was her 2nd race.

Don't hand me Beyers - Summer Doldrums got a 106 Beyer last winter and it was later downgraded to a 93 - after Lawrence The Roman was retired after the race and nobody ran back from it to do anything. As soon as Magnificence gets beaten, watch how fast that 107 is lowered.

I dont' use beyers' myself to handicap, but not getting technical, I can tell you that a filly in her 2nd time out doesn't get a 107. that just doesnt' happen.

[Rokeby Forever]

What were La Traviata's numbers?

As I understand it, Beyers are based on class, par time vs final time, and all the data from a race that they measure...but they're also based on the subjective observation of the number giver, which can vary from individual to individual. Some might look at a race and be impressed by it, and some might not.

[sunday_silence]

With the rapid nosedive Giant's Causeway has taken over the last 2 years, coupled with the major loss of face equated with lowering the stud fee that dramatically, $125,000 is still too much for him. I think for $5,000, I'd take a shot with Noble Causeway. The owner is buying up all kinds of mares for him, so he will probably get a book befitting a pricier stallion. So he should have every chance to be successful. As far as GC, all you can hope is that if you breed to him now, the foals produced from the matings at the $300,000 fee will be running and doing well by the time you're ready to sell your baby, regaining some respect for Giant's Causeway.

if you put a gun to my head and made me choose anything with any connection to Giant's Causeway I would run towards After Market at 30k.. both by storm cat out of Rahy mares, after market having the better mare

I dunno, guys. I can't help liking Aragorn. He is a great looking horse with nice speed at a mile. If the artificial surfaces are here to stay, horses like Aragorn and Artie Schiller (who I also like a lot) may turn out to be good values right now.

[sunday_silence]

I kind of think that Mr Sekiguchi will get plenty of support at $5,000, although I don't know what kinds of mares he'll get (or what he ever did to deserve any).

The only thing he did was be born to Storm Cat and a GSW half sister of A.P. Indy. I'm surprised a farm like Hill 'n' Dale wants to stand this horse in KY. Honestly, though, he does have the pedigree to possibly do well. The fact that he doesn't have a lot going on in the race record department is a major downer. But, you never know. I wonder if Sekiguchi kept any interest in him and whether he'll support him with mares?

[FOS]

hi Rok...hi guys

I saw her (Magnificience) races...and I can't remember a filly that she ever beat. The three year old fillies in California this year weren't much to write home about.

Magnificience easily crushed Coco Belle (winning by 5 lengths, while in hand as she approached the wire) in the Santa Paula S-G3 (only the 2nd lifetime start for Magnificience). Magnificience also set a New Stakes Record (in the Santa Paula-G3) in 1:14 3/5...impressive (to my way of thinking). The previous record of 1:15 (set by Sardula) stood since 1994.

For some perspective...Coco Belle had won her previous start (an allowance race) by 9 3/4 lengths. More recently...and in the 'what have you done for me lately' category...Coco Belle (who can fly) recently won the $200k Miss Woodford (on BC day at Monmouth Park) in 1:09 flat...the fractions in that race were 20 4/5; 43 1/5; 56 flat.

Magnificence ran fast against lightweights - it's a different story when a horse has to run fast against quality.

Magnificience has not tasted defeat (never even close) and has done everything she's been asked to do...EVERYTHING; and she (in only her 2nd lifetime start) did beat the VERY fast Coco Belle (as mentioned previously) while drawing off and winning easily by 5...setting a New Stakes Record to boot.

If Magnificience comes back 100% (after having a chip removed and some months off)...I expect that she'll be quite a force to be dealt with.

Although (to my way of thinking) Magnificience is already a STAR and VERY special...I too want to see how she handles herself (and the challenges) as her career unfolds. That said...I get a STRONG sense that she is a potential SUPER-star...possibly extraordinaire.

Best

Respectfully

[Rokeby Forever]

Hi FOS,

I agree that Magnificence has the potential to be something special - but I prefer to see the potential fulfilled. That said, I hope that she becomes something special. The sport desperately needs something other than Curlin to keep fan interest in this sport.

[chicago78]

Although (to my way of thinking) Magnificience is already a STAR and VERY special...I too want to see how she handles herself (and the challenges) as her career unfolds. That said...I get a STRONG sense that she is a potential SUPER-star...possibly extraordinaire.

Best

Respectfully

bdw0617



Yes.. I think magnifiacne would have given Midnight lute hell in the TVG sprint. and that's assumign she can't go 2 turns. Roke you must not have seen her two races. they literarly blow away anything I've seen..ANYTHING.. for a LONG time.. and I sit here and watch races all day. she's very, very, VERY special.

I think people are a little carried away with her. She ran 2 very fast races yes, but she beat a 4 horse field in her stakes win. I know Coco Belle is a runner, but she's been beat before, and actually lost her next 4 races after the Santa Paula. She's only gotten real good the last 2 starts. Swiss Diva, the second place horse, hasn't won a race since then, and she's been in against Cal breds. And Magnificience hasn't been back since. Her win was in April. And she hasn't been working at all. To me, she's a little like another Stormy Atlantic, Indian Ocean. Very fast, but not around for too long. To think she would have run against Midnight Lute and the BC Sprint horses and done anything is ridiculous.

[bdw0617]

back to giant's causeway, I thought about something late last night.


didn't he "service" close to 400 mares in 04? they would be 2YO's this year... how come I don't see any of them?