Good sires who have no black type?

[merse]

Outflanker should be the poster boy.

Outflanker's race tecord = 10 starts, 0 wins, 3 seconds, 2 thirds for total earnings of $4,424

As a sire: 1.33 AEI, 1.18 CI

[DDT]

Rokeby Forever

I would think that with 12 sons in the top 100 sires by earnings for 2007 that Storm Cat has established that he is a sire of sires, and with Van Nistelrooy, Hold That Tiger and Yankee Gentleman on the freshman sire list there are more to come.

DDT

[Toccet02]

Nope, DDT wouldn't solve the problem . . .
and wouldn't be particularly humane to the animals.
Just encouraging breeders to stay away from Storm Cat is what we need.
Oh . . .!
DDT is your NAME!
Sorry, misunderstood.

[DDT]

Toccet

Now that is funny, and I suppose you would engourage them to breed to Toccet, and get that wonderful Awesome Again blood flowing throughout the breed.

DDT

[Toccet02]

Sorry, I just couldn't resist . . .
I just worry that in 50 years we'll have nothing but Storm Cat/Mr. Pospector outcrosses to work with.
I have my doubts currently about my Toccet being a success at stud...but we shall see what the spring holds when his firt babies hit the track.

[Rokeby Forever]

Rokeby Forever

I would think that with 12 sons in the top 100 sires by earnings for 2007 that Storm Cat has established that he is a sire of sires, and with Van Nistelrooy, Hold That Tiger and Yankee Gentleman on the freshman sire list there are more to come.

DDT

DDT,

What is it about these statistics that convince you that Storm Cat is a "sire of sires?"

Sire of 157 active sons at stud who have had 21,538 foals of racing age (2007), 14,873 starters (69%), 9,340 winners (43%), 809 SWs (4%)

Overall, 4% SWs? That's what $10,000 sires average.

Why are Storm Cat's two most expensive sons, Giant's Causeway and Forestry, both having fee reductions in 2008? If he's a "sire of sires," why are only 7% of his sons in the top 100? Albert The Great stands for $4,000, and he's #100 in 2007 earnings - he's ahead of 93% of the sons of Storm Cat at stud.

Of freshman sires, Hold That Tiger (#1) and Van Nistelrooy (#2) had the two largest first crops of the entire 100 on the list. *yawn*

[Sysonby]

Sorry, I just couldn't resist . . .
I just worry that in 50 years we'll have nothing but Storm Cat/Mr. Pospector outcrosses to work with.
I have my doubts currently about my Toccet being a success at stud...but we shall see what the spring holds when his firt babies hit the track.

Thirty or so years ago, there was a concern Bold Ruler was going to swamp the breed. Every son went to stud and most of the major stallions were tail male to him. What A Pleasure just had 2 major prospects in Foolish Pleasure and Honest Pleasure, 7 out of 10 Kentucky Derby winners were tail male Bold Ruler, there were 2 Triple Crown winners, Wajima, Seattle Slew and Secretariat were just getting started, Reviewer, Bold Bidder, Irish Castle, Bold Hour, the 2 Bold Lads--all were at their prime, soon to be supported by Bold Forbes, Cannonade, Dust Commander, Super Concorde, Spectacular Bid. Not to mention all of those Phipps bred Bold Ruler mares going to Buckpasser. The breed was going to be swamped!

I think that what happens in all seriousness is that every 30 years or so, sire lines slowly run out of steam. It may not seem that way with the success of Smart Strike, Street Cry and Distorted Humor but I think that's what's slowly happening to Mr P: on the third crop sire list, it's 4 out of 5; second crop, its 1 out of the top 5 and 2 out of the top ten and on the first crop sire list, there is only 1 that is tail male to him out of the top 5. Don't get me wrong--that's still plenty and that's still a plenty viable sireline. But in 20 years you may see another line on top entirely, perhaps from the Halo line or Deputy Minister or even Tiznow!

I'm sure no one in 1977 could have foreseen a leading sirelist in 2007 with only 2 tail male sons of Bold Ruler in the top 20. It blows my mind when I think about because I remember how agitated I was about back then.

[DDT]

Rokeby Forever

What is it about the statistics that make you say that Storm Cat has not established himself as a sire of sires. I did not say that all of his sons are successful or that some of his successful sons are successful because they sire more foals. How many sons of Mr. Propector failed? How many sons of Bold Ruler failed? How many sons of Northern Dancer, Nasrullah and Ribot failed? In my opinion, placing 12 sons on a list of the top 1% of all stallions standing in North America indicates some success as a sire of sires.

Albert the Great is on the list mainly because of Nobiz Like Shobiz, as with all things, ranking stallions by earnings is flawed in many ways so looking at a more meaningful list, AEI, besides being the top stallion ranked by AEI, Storm Cat has 9 sons on the list of the top 100 in 2007.

DDT

[Toccet02]

Sorry, I just couldn't resist . . .
I just worry that in 50 years we'll have nothing but Storm Cat/Mr. Pospector outcrosses to work with.
I have my doubts currently about my Toccet being a success at stud...but we shall see what the spring holds when his firt babies hit the track.

Thirty or so years ago, there was a concern Bold Ruler was going to swamp the breed. Every son went to stud and most of the major stallions were tail male to him. What A Pleasure just had 2 major prospects in Foolish Pleasure and Honest Pleasure, 7 out of 10 Kentucky Derby winners were tail male Bold Ruler, there were 2 Triple Crown winners, Wajima, Seattle Slew and Secretariat were just getting started, Reviewer, Bold Bidder, Irish Castle, Bold Hour, the 2 Bold Lads--all were at their prime, soon to be supported by Bold Forbes, Cannonade, Dust Commander, Super Concorde, Spectacular Bid. Not to mention all of those Phipps bred Bold Ruler mares going to Buckpasser. The breed was going to be swamped!

I think that what happens in all seriousness is that every 30 years or so, sire lines slowly run out of steam. It may not seem that way with the success of Smart Strike, Street Cry and Distorted Humor but I think that's what's slowly happening to Mr P: on the third crop sire list, it's 4 out of 5; second crop, its 1 out of the top 5 and 2 out of the top ten and on the first crop sire list, there is only 1 that is tail male to him out of the top 5. Don't get me wrong--that's still plenty and that's still a plenty viable sireline. But in 20 years you may see another line on top entirely, perhaps from the Halo line or Deputy Minister or even Tiznow!

I'm sure no one in 1977 could have foreseen a leading sirelist in 2007 with only 2 tail male sons of Bold Ruler in the top 20. It blows my mind when I think about because I remember how agitated I was about back then.

Thank you. That IS comforting.

[Rokeby Forever]

Hi DDT,

Every major sire has sired sires that have failed, but Storm Cat currently has 157 sons at stud. When did Mr P, Bold Ruler, Nasrullah, Ribot, or any of the past stallions that you mentioned ever have nearly that many active sons at stud? What I'm writing is that any Storm Cat success as a "sire of sires" is purely because of the strength of numbers - with that many sons around, it would be impossible for a least a couple of them not to pan out.

Consider: Seattle Slew sired AP Indy. Danzig sired Danehill. Has Storm Cat come remotely close to siring a son that important to the breeding world, with the vast number of Storm Cat sons at stud?

Yes, one major offspring can put a lesser sire into the top earnings list, but it's a list that you used in your initial argument. If we now turn to the AEI list, one would have to conclude that many top Storm Cat sons are failures as stallions. Giant's Causeway is #20 on the AEI list at 2.03, but he's worked with a 3.56 CI. Forestry, at #39, has a 1.83 AEI, but he has worked with a 3.01 CI. Forest Wildcat, at #83, has a 1.56 AEI, but he's worked with a 1.90 CI. There are some sons that have improved against the CI, but I don't see an improvement with any of them that would lead me to believe that Storm Cat sons are any better than sons of other sires.

I think the breeding world hoped that Storm Cat would be like Northern Dancer as far as siring sires, but it just hasn't happened. If Storm Cat is a "sire of sires," it's only because so many breeders stand a son, whether that son is worthy of being a stallion or not. When you write that "there are more to come," I see sons like Mr Sekiguchi joining the ranks and it just doesn't give me goosebumps.

[DDT]

Rokeby Forever

Don't get me wrong here, I am not in any way saying or suggesting that Storm Cat is THE SIRE OF SIRES. I am saying that your opinion is not supported by the facts, even with so many sons at stud, and Mr. Propector, Northern Dancer and Bold Ruler would rival that number as far as sons at stud are concerned during their periods of success. The low numbers of winners and stakes winners goes directly to the quality and numbers of sons at stud. I am not going to argue this with you, but in my opinion Storm Cat has proven to sire sons that are successful sires. I don't know if A.P. Indy or Danehill are that important to the breeding world, A.P. Indy has been a top sire for a few years and Danehill is purely a turf sire mainly in Europe and down under, so their importance to the breed is a matter of opinion.

It is apparent that you do not like Storm Cat, and I could care less what he does as a stallion, but, he is a sire of sires, make no mistake about that.

By the way, the last time I checked Mr. Prospector had at least 55 sons at stud in North America, and that is not counting the ones that have died or been pensioned or the numerous sons overseas. Bold Ruler had over 200 sons at stud at one point.

I guess it comes down to how do we define a sire of sires, and I for one would say that having multiple sons on any leading sire list is an indication that the stallion in question is a sire of sires.

DDT

[Rokeby Forever]

Hi DDT,

I guess we'll simply have to agree to disagree, which is fine, but you raise one point that I have to comment on:

I don't know if A.P. Indy or Danehill are that important to the breeding world, A.P. Indy has been a top sire for a few years and Danehill is purely a turf sire mainly in Europe and down under, so their importance to the breed is a matter of opinion.

AP Indy's importance as a "sire of sires" still remains to be seen, but how can you possibly write that Danehill's importance is a "matter of opinion?" I'll grant that Danehill hasn't has a major impact on North American breeding, but consider some of his international sons at stud:

Danehill Dancer: Sire of 4 champions
Desert King: Sire of 4 champions
Flying Spur: Sire of 3 champions
Redoutes Choice: Sire of 2 champions
Danzero: Sire of 3 champions
Tiger Hill: Sire of 4 champions

How do you define, "Sire of sires?" And, what sire around the world has impacted a nation's breeding program like Danehill has in Australia?

[DDT]

Rokeby Forever

Sunday Silence in Japan and Sadlers Wells in England. I am not going to downplay Danehill, he was a superior sire and is a superior sire of sires but we were not discussing what makes a sire of sires and who the best all time sire of sires might be. What we were discussing was your comment that Storm Cat had not established himself as a sire of sires. I took issue with that and explained why. You came back with the poor stats that accompany his many sons and said something like if any of them were successful it was because a few out of the many had to have some success. Again, how much success and how it is achieved is not what we are debating, he does have successful sons at stud, does that make him a sire of sires? My answer is yes. A great infuence on the breed? Probably not, history may reflect kindly on him, who knows, but with sons like Bluegrass Cat and After Market and a few others he still has a chance to make a mark.

DDT

[Rokeby Forever]

Hi DDT,

Interesting discussion....

Let me define my interpretation of the term, "Sire of Sires." To me, it means a sire that sires sons that sire champion sires, and those sons later sire their own top sires. An example why I consider Mr P a "Sire of sires" is because he sired Forty Niner, who, in turn, sired Distorted Humor. Halo would be another - he sired Sunday Silence, who, as you write, has become the dominant gene in Japanese breeding with all his successful sons. In other words, when a sire's line can continue at a high level from generation to generation, that's a "Sire of Sires."

Alydar, IMO, was NOT a sire of sires. He was a heck of a sire, but for the books of broodmares that his best sons received, he was a failure as a "Sire of sires." Benchmark is having a good measure of success in California, and Brother Derek is likely to stand stud in 2009, but that does not lead me to conclude that Alydar was a "Sire of sires." Continuing that thought, I would not consider Cormorant as a "Sire of sires." He sired Go For Gin, who in turn sired Albert The Great, who in turn sired Nobiz Like Shobiz, but one example does not a "Sire of sires" make.

Many of Storm Cat's sons at stud are still young, but at age 24, many Storm Cat sons have had ample opportunity to sire a champion siring son at stud, and it hasn't happened. I can point to many, many examples where sons of Storm Cat have sired horses that filled $5,000 claiming races. Tale Of the Cat has hundreds of sons around. So does Hennessey - both went on to sire sons at stud, but has the Storm Cat line from either son been as strong as the Mr P line through Distorted Humor?

I fail to see how a sire can be a "Sire of Sires" and not be a "great influence on the breed." Simply having sons at stud that sire everyday horses does not fit into my definition of "Sire of sires."

[DDT]

Rokeby Forever

Forty Niner was a champion 2 year old, what sire championship did he win and Distorted Humor has never led a sires list, so how do they fit your definition of a sire that sires a son that sire champion sires, and those sons later sire their own top sires. I would think that Mr. Prospector, Fappiano, Unbridled and Unbridled's Song is a better example. It matters little, you are entitled to your opinion, and in mine Storm Cat has established that he can be regarded as a sire of sires.

DDT