Which unprovens to breed to in 2005...it's decision time...

Discussion and analysis of thoroughbred stallions.

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FOS
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Postby FOS » Mon Jan 03, 2005 11:35 am

hi liberty

Malibu Moon is a very good selection...he certainly seems to be a rising star.

His Declan's Moon is definitely the real deal...and his Perfect Moon has plenty of talent also.

Respectfully

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FOS
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Postby FOS » Mon Jan 03, 2005 7:37 pm

hi guys

Must say...have seen a number of very nice Flame Throwers. It wouldn't surprise me if he jumped up with a good 2 year-old.

He might be a worthwhile gamble among the unprovens.

Respectfully

roving boy
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Which unprovens to breed to in 2005

Postby roving boy » Tue Jan 04, 2005 6:23 am

As I read this forum I became increasingly surprised that Aldebaran did not receive any mention! Mr. Finochio lays out his factors (by a sire of sires, out of a family which has produced sires, top quality racehorse) which all point to Aldebaran. Consider these facts:

He is by Mr. Prospector (not a grandson of Mr. P but a son!)

His 1st dam and his 2nd dam are Champions

He himself was the Champion Sprinter of 2003 - but was probably best at 7 furlongs or a mile (won the Met Mile) - "Milers make stallions"

He retired sound, having won or placed in 23 of 25 lifetime starts; won or placed in 14 of 16 Graded stakes; earned 100+ Beyers in all his starts on the dirt (15)

His family is the family of Leading sires El Gran Senor, Try My Best, Xaar

He is tail female Best In Show, a blue hen by anyone's definition!

At $40,000 in 2005 he is certainly good value.
Roving Boy

LSB
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Postby LSB » Tue Jan 04, 2005 7:45 am

roving boy, I think Aldebaran is a very interesting stallion.

There's one thing that troubles me about his family though. According to what I can discover most of his siblings have died at very young ages. Unfortunately I don't know what caused their deaths. But is odd, nonetheless.

roving boy
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Postby roving boy » Tue Jan 04, 2005 9:27 am

I was not aware of that. I think Good Journey is at stud in New Zealand, and I believe Sea of Showers and Tomisue's Indy are both alive and well.
Roving Boy

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FOS
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Postby FOS » Tue Jan 04, 2005 9:29 am

hi roving boy ... hi LSB

A couple of things may raise some questions (and/or doubts) about Aldebaran's prospects for sire success...not the least of which are:

He is out of a Private Account mare. Consider this...both Our Emblem (scoffed at by many) and Aldebaran are by Mr. Prospector...and both are out of Private Account mares...OUCH.

Furthermore, Private Account...I believe it's fair to say...may not be the name in a pedigree which raises one's confidence level when considering (or envisioning) the kind of front end which may be desired.

Also consider this...Aldebaran's second dam is by Northfields. Yes, Northfields is a top-class broodmare sire...but leans very strongly to producing turf-horses...probably not goal #1 of many (if any) Aldebaran supporters.

Although Aldebaran evolved (as a 4 and 5 year-old) into a top-class sprinter (on the dirt), I suggest that many breeders may stay clear of him (at least at $40k or $50k stud fee) until or unless they sense he will deliver the type of horses they are looking to produce.

The history at Darby Dan is deep and rich...but it has been a long time since they have been associated with a consistent...top-class stallion. And it may be fair to say that in recent years the likes of DD stallions Sunshine Forever...and Kyle's Our Man (for example)...does not bode well for them (at least as stallion gurus). With that in mind...it'll be interesting to see how their young stallion Behrens unfolds as a sire.

The memory of Darby Dan's great Roberto may be their cornerstone...but this is a game of what-have-you-done-for-me-lately.

Unfortunately the answer at Darby Dan may be...not much.

Regardless...Aldebaran may turn out to be a good-one.

Respectfully

roving boy
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Postby roving boy » Tue Jan 04, 2005 9:55 am

FOS, you raise some good points regarding Private Account, but one cannot overlook the fact that he carries La Troienne.

Aldebaran was obviously a better horse on the dirt, but did not run on the dirt until his 4 and 5 year old seasons. Can we fault him for not having the opportunity to run on the dirt as a 2 and 3 year old?

He still had enough turf ability to win his only 2 year old start, win the Nassau and place in a Grade 1 on the turf.

While Darby Dan has not had a world class stallion since Roberto, neither have many other farms. I think that Meadowlake has certainly proved useful, as did Honor Grades, whose untimely death was a tragedy. Matty G is an up and coming sire of racehorses, but will probably never be a huge commercial horse. Vicar has a shot, especially if you believe in the sire of sires wave theory - Wild Again horses seem to be surging.

I have to say that I doubt Behrens or any son of Pleasant Colony will ever be a commercial success - look at Pleasant Tap's progeny results and then review his sales numbers.

However, as we all know, most new stallions fail, and no matter what one does, breeding always involves a roll of the dice!
Roving Boy

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Postby PG29 » Tue Jan 04, 2005 10:11 am

In Washington State I think that these guys have a chance at success.

Kentucky Lucky - Nicely bred son of Seattle Slew
Makors Mark - Champion WA bred by multiple WA leading sire Son of Briartic
Polish Gift - Full brother to Kentucky Derby Hopeful Survivalist and Polish Miner(Standing in MD), Son of Danzig out of a full sister to Seeking The Gold
Tribunal - Very nicely bred son of Deputy Minister out of a very nice Secretariat mare, 1/2 brother to Chiefs Crown
Vitesse- Very nice looking and bred son of Kingmambo

If this crew were to be rated by those out there with the breeding experience how would you rate them?

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FOS
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Postby FOS » Tue Jan 04, 2005 10:44 am

hi roving boy

You wrote..."While Darby Dan has not had a world class stallion since Roberto, neither have many other farms. I think that Meadowlake has certainly proved useful, as did Honor Grades, whose untimely death was a tragedy. Matty G is an up and coming sire of racehorses, but will probably never be a huge commercial horse. Vicar has a shot, especially if you believe in the sire of sires wave theory - Wild Again horses seem to be surging."

roving boy...horses like Meadowlake...Matty G...and Honor Grades are (or were) certainly "useful" (as you described)...but for the most part it's probably fair to say they are old news or 7th page news...with an occasional blip on the radar.

As for Vicar...maybe he'll be fine...but I suggest he has a long way to go...he didn't do much convincing in 2004.

Also you might consider...none of the stallions you referenced stand for $40k or $50k either...and are certainly not subject to the scrutiny that big stud fees often attract.

And what about DD's advertising and promotion...seems they're kind of inept at that.

For example...approx a year or so ago...Darby Dan ran an advertisement that seemed to scold breeders for not supporting their stallion Behrens. I suggest that such actions raise serious questions as to their management...knowledge and/or direction in the stallion game.

I suggest that ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...it is difficult to support Darby Dan's Aldebaran at $40k or $50k...at least right now.

I wish Darby Dan success...and if you like Aldebaran for $40k or $50k you should breed to him...he may be just fine.

You wrote "However, as we all know, most new stallions fail, and no matter what one does, breeding always involves a roll of the dice!" Pretty fair assessment roving boy...but some gamblers win more often than others...and Darby Dan doesn't seem to have the lucky charm.

Respectfully

Bill from WA
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Postby Bill from WA » Tue Jan 04, 2005 10:45 am

Hi

My list of "possibles" in the Northwest.

Polish Gift (Look for an early impact)
Tribunal
Liberty Gold
Makor's Mark (may take time to develop)
Ex Marks The Cop
Bagshot
Raisor's Edge.

Bill
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roving boy
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Postby roving boy » Tue Jan 04, 2005 12:32 pm

Hello FOS.

Opinions are individual, and just like matings, what is pretty on paper may not be in the flesh...or vice versa.

Realize that neither Sunshine Forever nor Kyle's Our Man stood for the $40,000 to $50,000 fee you reference in your most recent posting. However, Meadowlake, Honor Grades and Matty G are/were in the same fee range as Sunshine Forever and Kyle's Our Man, and for that reason I countered your original argument with them.

I did breed to Aldebaran in 2004 and may well do so again in 2005. Every mare does not suit every stallion, and thankfully there are a multitude of choices.

I do not recall the 2004 Behrens ad you refer to, but cannot help but notice the increased volume of advertising from DD this year, as well as a change in format. Advertising is a big part of drawing mares to horses, however, in the end it is the horse's offspring that determine the longterm success of a stallion, not the promotion.
Roving Boy

LSB
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Postby LSB » Tue Jan 04, 2005 3:17 pm

I, too, have noticed the increase in stallion ads from Darby Dan. They must be trying to broaden their exposure in that arena, which seems like a good thing. I think their recent ads comparing Aldebaran to Speightstown are a particularly effective use of the medium.

suzyd
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Postby suzyd » Tue Jan 04, 2005 4:32 pm

For the Northwest, I agree with Bill and Greg exept for
Razor's Edge. I don't see him doing anything .
El Dorado is bringing is a Seeking The Gold son with a nice
race record and from what I hear, is nicely made as well.
His name is Private Gold.

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Ryeno
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Postby Ryeno » Tue Jan 04, 2005 5:03 pm

There are quite a few new stallions in the Pacific Northwest.Some can be found at www.cthsbc.org and their is a drop down menu.Take a look and see what you all think.

Ryeno
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FOS
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Postby FOS » Tue Jan 04, 2005 7:58 pm

hi roving boy

You like Aldebaran and that's what really matters...

...I wish you good luck and great success with your choice.

Best to you.

Respectfully