Biggest freshman disappointment of 2008?

[HR LLC]

AS,
Looks like Smarty may end up in another country soon.

[ASB]

That's not on the table yet, but if he doesn't get a big horse next year the offers will start to be looked at closely.

[Coaltown]

I serious doubt if Smarty would be going anywhere I doubt Mrs. Chapman would allow it. While he has gotten out of the gates a bit slow, TCF knows better than anyone how quickly things can change. People would have placed Sky Mesa on this list last year and now you can't get to him unless you were Zenyatta.

[ASB]

As I said, he's in no immediate danger to be shipped off but the shareholders update call was not one of confidence.

[Coaltown]

Well knowing Mrs. Chapman, I don't think she will ever entertain the idea of moving him. I think she is committed to keeping him in Kentucky for the long haul. He only needs one big horse and her and Mr. Clay own one in partnership that John Servis has said is the best horse in his barn.

[Heather T.]

Just remember Kingmambo.

After Kingmambo's first crop raced, people said you couldn't give his babies away they raced so badly at 2.

How time have changed. Since then he has become a leading sire and one of the most expensive stallions in the world.

Lesson: At least give a guy a couple of crops to prove himself.

[ASB]

No one is saying he should be given up on, but the quality of mares and his own precocity and pedigree would suggest a lot more success at this point than there is.

Trust me, I have a huge vested interest in him succeeding, but at this point its not looking great.

[Bohemia]

Well knowing Mrs. Chapman, I don't think she will ever entertain the idea of moving him. I think she is committed to keeping him in Kentucky for the long haul. He only needs one big horse and her and Mr. Clay own one in partnership that John Servis has said is the best horse in his barn.

Mrs. Chapman may be "committed" to keeping him in Kentucky for the long haul, but will Kentucky be committed to him as a sire for the long haul? Coaltown, you strike me as a Smarty fan who is unwilling to admit that his first highly anticipated crop is a bust. I know people like you are all a-twitter about his Gr. 3 winner in Puerto Rico, but that is hardly the mark of an up-and-coming young sire. And I have heard that people can breed to him next year for as low as $20K. Also, there have been comparsions between Smarty and Sky Mesa ... check out Sky Mesa's first crop to race, and even though it was considered disappointing, it was far better than Smarty's first crop. At some point, Smarty will fall out of favor, and his stud career will be a just a footnote to an otherwise brilliant racing career. Personally, I think his $100K stud fee was more in response to that racing career than to his overall potential as a great stallion. Like I posted before, Smarty's bottom line, especially having Smile as his broodmare sire, doesn't inspire confidence. So, Coaltown, you may want to put those cheerleader pom-poms back in the closet until you see Smarty's 3-year-olds, or next crop of 2-year-olds, do well on the racetrack.

[Coaltown]

Thanks for the psychic reading on Smarty's stud career. That was helpful (where's that sarcastic emoticon when you need one?).

Anyone who writes off a stallion after his first 2yos race is extremely short sighted. I've heard a lot of experienced horsemen comment that they didn't expect Smarty to be a dominant juvenile sire right off the bat, but they fully expected his offspring to get better at three. So let's just wait and see, why don't we?

[Bohemia]

What part of what I wrote don't you agree with? Sure, Smarty may surprise us all next year and beyond, but I would lay odds against it. And why do horsemen think his progeny will be better as they get older? Smarty was a brilliant 2-year-old who got to the races late because of injury. Certainly not all the mares he was bred to were late bloomers.

[hpkingjr]

[quote="Elusive City"]
---------------

Perfect soul--just dreadfully slow 2 year olds

Perfect Soul had a full brother in Canada (Not Impossible) who died a mysterious death. His brother has managed to sire 3 black type including a million dollar horse from the 33 listed in the database. When Perfect Sould was first listed in the Blood Horse Stallion Register Not Impossible was "accidently" left out.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/progeny/not+impossible2

[Dave C]

For me Smarty Jones is not disappointing at stud because I had very low expectations of him. I would have been shocked if he had been even moderately successful at this point. IMO he out ran his pedigree, but he's breeding down to it. In 4-5 years time we'll have the same discussion about Big Brown. But never fear there will be another flash in the pan 3yo wonder to retire to stud after the KD for a million dollar stud fee (I'm expecting hyper inflation the way the Fed is printing money )

On the whole I'm not really interested in the stallions that flop, it's the ones that throw runners from an initial modest stud fee that interest me. Given that 70% of new stallions are flops, it's a pretty safe bet to bet against any of the well hyped stallions.

[KMO_racing]

Spanish steps foals are very big large with lots of bone on the ones I have seen, i have seen many of them. he himself is a huge gorgeous stallion, very correct. To me looks like very late developers, to keep them sound. I think they will run well at 3 & 4. not what the pinhookers hope for but what a racing endeavor looks for. One of my friends have 2 they are giving them the time to come around and grow into themselves, looks like they have ability.

They are not all speedbals at 2 years old.... But that is where most of the money is.

[el camino]

Seattle Fitz. I never liked him but they sold so well.

[ASB]

I loved Seattle Fitz. He's a gorgeous, balanced animal that had a lot of real ability and speed.

So I wasn't shocked with the way they sold but I am disappointed with the results so far.