Rock Hard Ten...where will he set up shop and at what cost?

[Intrinsic Worth]

Wow! What an interesting thread I have missed. To stay directly on the original target and ignore tangents...

I am not as excited about RHT as many seem to be - too big to sire commercial weanlings or yearlings, too late developing to sire 2 year olds, possibly too big to sire sound racehorses. Furthermore his connections' ridiculously high opinion of his value has turned off a number of stallion operations.
The likeliest player in my opinion is Walden & Hurricane Hall. Big Ben needs a headliner to launch the new stallion station (that's why they were almost the winners in the Smarty Jones contest). Walden will not consider only this horse income potential in his appraisal of value, he will also consider the non-tangibles like "buzz" and "hype" and what it would do for a nascent stallion operation. Remember what a dream ad account Vinery was during the Walden years? He will promote the hell out of RHT (and Hurricane Hall on the RHT syndicate's expense). He knows that in this game it is not steak that sells, it is sizzle. Why else would people pay more for the offpsring of unproven sires than that of proven sires?

Coolmore is/has been cornering the market on Storm Cat and Northern Dancer; said to be looking for AP Indy next. A WinStar/Taylor Made venture is certainly not out of the question. Lanes End does have the relationship, but as has been mentioned, RHT would compete directly with Saint Liam. Castleton Lyons has the money and is a possibility but the way he flaked up the Alex deal will make everyone reluctant to deal with him - ditto for Stonewall. So my thought is that it will most likely come down to Walden v. WinStar - wait a minute, isn't Ben's brother Elliot on a lifetime retainer with WinStar?

And while I believe the Hail To Reason line is set up for a tremendous resurgence, I think it will most likely be via Saint Ballado, although Red Ransom is also an excellent possibility.

It will be interesting to see what happens. HAs anyone ever thought of making this business a tv series?

That is exactly what I've thought of RHT. Point Given had the same stigma attached to him when he retired (too big to sire early runners) and it proved to be true. At least Point Given ran and did decent (second in the BC Juvie) as a two year old and had a spectacular 3 year old season, RHT can't say that.

[roving boy]

Just heard RHT may be going to Lanes End - must be the Madeline connection.

[LSB]

Just heard RHT may be going to Lanes End - must be the Madeline connection.

Interesting! You'd think he be in competition with Saint Liam there, but I guess they don't care.

[roving boy]

I had the same thought, but my source suggested that Lanes End was not taking a significant piece of RHT, maybe that is enough of a difference to make it work.

[sunday_silence]

Overbrook is definitely trying to get Rock Hard Ten. It's unusual for them, but I guess they really need some fresh blood and it's not coming from within their ranks.

[Intrinsic Worth]

Hell, Overbrook can't choose a good horse, even when it whacks them in the face. They were the ones who sold Hennessey and Grand Slam as yearlings because they didn't like them.

[sunday_silence]

From what I was told, Overbrook has sold some yearlings that they really liked for the simple reason of helping their bankroll. Their racing stable is not in the greatest shape (new trainer, anyone?). And the only really good thing they have going will be 23 years old soon.

[Intrinsic Worth]

Hennesey and Grand Slam were sold because they didn't like them as yearlings, not to help their bankroll. Their yearling manager told me that.

Although some people in the operation want to get rid of Lukas as a trainer, it's the wishes of WT Young to keep him on. Lukas knows he has free reign and takes a lot of advantage it.

[sunday_silence]

*shrug* I didn't necessarily mean that H and GS were among the ones they sold to pad the bank accounts. I have no idea what GS looked like as a baby, but looking at him now, there's not much to dislike Hennessy, on the other hand, is not exactly, to me, the most beautifully put-together specimen I've ever seen. But, he raced well and is apparently doing well for himself in the breeding shed, so I guess that's what counts. It's always a crapshoot when you're a breeding and racing op and you sell yearlings. The one you keep could be a dog and you could sell the one that goes on to be a G1 winner.

Overbrook (or Mr. Young) didn't sell Snaafi Dancer did they? Whoever it was definitely got the last laugh there.

[llbean]

Although some people in the operation want to get rid of Lukas as a trainer, it's the wishes of WT Young to keep him on. Lukas knows he has free reign and takes a lot of advantage it.

The last I heard WT Young is dead and I've always been a bit sceptical of the extent to which someone's wishes continue to matter after they're dead.

Maybe Lukas is still the trainer primarily due to attrition?

-llbean

[Intrinsic Worth]

I actually think all their other trainers have worked for Lukas. Lukas will always be their main trainer, but he doesn't get their best horses anymore.

Since the grandson came aboard, they've sold off quite a few of their broodmares and I think they are revamping their breeding program. They really had too many mediocre broodmares. They also needed to rethink the stallions they send their mares to. They tend to not match them appropriately to the mares. They bred Flanders to AP Indy quite a few times, even when they saw the match wasn't working well. When her 2004 AP Indy foal was born, people were joking about what an expensive nag he'd turn out to be. He was such a cute guy though, I really hope he does well.

Unfortunately next year, they will have a ton of Cat Thief offspring, which as we have already seen, probably won't do much.

[Sysonby]

The A P Indy X Storm Cat nick has performed wretchedly so far considering the individuals we're talking about. It's still early but it's on track to become a famous anti-nick like Buckpasser and Bold Ruler.

[FOS]

hi Intrinsic Worth

It doesn't surprise me that Overbrook supported their Cat Thief to some extent, but it seemed that the writing (and it might be fair to say that it was not very pretty) related to Cat Thief the sire, was being written on the wall in 2004. Certainly his future success (as a consistent sire of quality racehorses) was even more in doubt in late 2004 and early 2005...as he was not offering any real signs that things might be changing for the better or that he was a very worthy risk.

With that in mind it does surprise me, based on what you wrote ("Unfortunately next year, they will have a ton of Cat Thief offspring" ...your words) that Overbrook apparently supported him to the extent that they did this year...OUCH.

Respectfully

[StrawberryFelidos]

Question: now that Afleet Alex is also officially on the market, how do you think it will affect the farm battle over Rock Hard Ten? Do you think stud farms will turn their money away from Rocky in favor of trying to aquire Alex, or do you think most of the farms will still be pining for Mr. 10? Obviously they're two very different animals, but they both have plenty of hype, and I suppose whatever farm gets them can charge the hell outta people with the stud fees.

[sunday_silence]

Unfortunately, they can't all succeed here in the US and I bet Cat Thief will have a plane ticket with his name on it pretty soon. Word has it they've turned down offers for Grindstone, but I don't think Thief will get so lucky.

I think in the stallion wars this year, Lane's End came out on top by snagging Saint Liam. Six months ago, I thought Alex would be the hottest stallion prospect, but retiring him so late in the year is a real downer. Same with RH10. If somebody tells me that there are still enough quality "available" mares to give AA and Rock the kind of books they'd have gotten if they both retired in August or September, I don't think I'd believe it. I hate that, because they're the 2 horses I most enjoyed following the past couple of years. And, there's a rumor that Alex has some "issues" that might hamper his breeding career, IYCWIM.