Best Stallions by % of runners & winners

[Pete]

Hi TBrace,

I'm only interested in a sire's percentage of winners from foals, not the stallion with the largest number of winners. I can't agree that Langfuhr had modest size crops with 78, 91, 82 and 64 foals in his first 4 crops (total of 315 foals).

Langfuhr's fee reduction is an indication of his diminished commercial appeal and that also translates to longer race careers and more opportunities for his get to perform on the track - thus more winners. Langfuhr is now positioned to be a latter day Allen's Prospect.

It's Freezing never led the number of winners list (as far as I know) but 93% of his foals ran and 86% of his foals won! It's Freezing also had about 7% SWs and one of the highest average earnings for foals in his era ($28 million from about 430 foals). He impressed me.

I mentioned Petionville who has 63% winners from his 250 foals, more than 1/2 of them 4yo or younger. This is an exceptional number too and quite likely to end up over 70%. Not a guarantee of commercial acceptance even though he's had several G1 performers (Island Fashion and Runway Model as examples). He needs a big colt to make him commercially.

In evaluating City Zip I think it's important to note that his foals were competitive past their maiden wins, several tenacious in stakes-placed efforts and overall I'd agree that he did well in his first year but remember that most of his foals won in restricted races. I would caution against using the raw number of winners as a guide to continued success. Carson City has had several sons that had good freshman years only to be relegated to 'race horse' status with diminished commercial appeal like Lord Carson, Good And Tough and Ormsby. Keep in mind that Crusader Sword was the leading freshman sire in his year. The quality of winners is a better guide in projecting prolonged commercial appeal.

I believe that City Zip's get have shown more dimension than the other sons of Carson City, especially in their competitiveness, but most of his winners and better performers are fillies and if he doesn't get top quality colts, he'll be in the same boat as the other sons of Carson City as soon as 2007, perhaps 2008 depending on Ghostzapper's appeal.

Regards,

Pete

[FOS]

hi tbrace

Yes...CZ's done well as a sire of 2-yo winners...I suggest it'll be interesting to see how they go on...and how they fare vs open company.

Probably a concern of mine re: City Zip (as a sire) is that most that I've seen (by him) are not very scopy...I don't recall seeing one with much length through the neck.

Best to you.

Respectfully

[tbrace]

Hi, Fos,

I agree. Most Carson City's are not very scopy. An exception might be Pollard's Vision. His looks seem to take more after his female side, and, perhaps consequently, he ran his best races around two turns. What do you think of his chances as a sire?


In appreciation,

tbrace

[FOS]

hi tbrace

For the record, the Keeneland Sales results indicate that the dam of City Zip's first ever stakes-winner (Little Miss Zip) was sold yesterday (Monday January 9, 2006) for $525,000.

dam of Little Miss Zip by CITY ZIP...sold for $525,000

If Meadow Dream (dam of Little Miss Zip, by City Zip) is somewhat representative of the kind of mares that City Zip attracted early on (in New York)...it's probably fair to say that CZ received a good opportunity (maybe an understatement) at stud.

Regarding Pollard's Vision...I have not yet seen him in the flesh...but based on his racing exploits and his female family (his dam being by Dixieland Band, 2nd dam by Pleasant Colony, 3rd dam by Nijinsky II, 4th dam is champion Chris Evert, she the dam of champion Chief's Crown) it might be reasonable to expect that Pollard's Vision might very well have it in him to break the mold (and get out of the box) that many (if not most) Carson City's seem to find themselves in. And when you consider the star two-turn G1 winners (on the dirt in North America) in PV's family...it certainly seems to support the notion that he could get you a quality two-turn horse.

That said...and assuming Pollard's Vision looks the part (and I suggest don't assume anything if he's on your list of possibilities) and you plan to go to the sales with a resultant foal by him...I would ask (among the many questions)...how well might he be supported and promoted.

If you're not confident that he'll receive the kind of opportunity (including advertising etc) that (in your opinion) might enhance a breeder's chances for attention (and hopefully success) at the sales...I suggest look elsewhere.

Certainly on paper, Pollard's Vision seems interesting.

Best to you.

Respectfully