OK, here's a Jeopardy question - Awful Sires for $400, Alex:

Discussion and analysis of thoroughbred stallions.

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Rokeby Forever
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Postby Rokeby Forever » Wed Dec 27, 2006 2:07 am

Actually, as a 3 year sire, More Than Ready really impresses me. I'm not sure how his Aussie numbers will affect his future numbers (but he's a very good tuf sire), but at $40,000 compared to Giant's Causeway at $300,000, let's compare:

Giant's Causeway:
Foals of Racing age: 575
GSW: 12
SW: 21
SW%: 4
Foals to race: 59%
Average earnings/runner: $49,000

More Than Ready:
Foals of racing age: 447
GSW: 7
SW: 28
SW%: 6
Foals to race: 64%
Average earnings/runner: $42,000

More Than Ready doesn't hit the Home Run as often, but with less foals of racing age, he has more stakes winners, and with what anyone would argue would be much lesser books of mares, he has more foals hit the track, and they don't earn much less than the average GC runner.

Now, you can argue that GC is overbred which brings his numbers down, but More Than Ready has averaged 149 foals/year, and his numbers are doing quite well (and with this many foals, he still has a better AEI than CI). As is pointed out, one or two top performers can really skew an AEI - More Than Ready has sired some fine horses, but hasn't come up with the two or three Millionaires that GC has...which makes MTR's AEI even more impressive.

It seems to me that if someone wants to shoot for the stars, GC is that type of stallion...you could hit the Home Run, or you could wind up with one of the 71% so far that haven't win a race. More Than Ready may not sire a Home Run type horse, but you seem to have a better chance at getting a SW of some class, or at least a better chance of getting a horse that will make the races and break its maiden.

GC has gotten tremendous support with his mares and his results are "what they are." Suppose More Than Ready and GC flip-flopped their books of mares (at least on a quality basis). Who do you think then would really be the best performer as a sire?

Would GC be a good stallion value at $50,000? Absolutely, as I've said 100 times. Better mare selection would also help this stallion. But, More Than Ready is being bred to all kinds of mares and none close to the quality GC has received, and his numbers are better in some cases and not that far behind in others.

All things being equal, a rational person would have to conclude that More Than Ready is the overall better sire. Now, the Coolmore shills can come out en masse and make fools of themselves by yelling and screaming (without actually refuting anything), but it's not going to work. This argument is simply too strong to deny.