I have a question? Who is the WORST Stallion you know?

[Rokeby Forever]

It was Marvin....before the operation.

[Maven]

It was Marvin....before the operation.

I see you're still bitter about me removing your favorite thing about me...

[Foggytrip]

[Sam]

What about Limit Out?/

80.6% winners ; 16% black type and 10% BTW . fee is $3,500.

I don't even bother looking at the stud fee until I've looked at the stallion's production numbers.

Again, I have guidelines I look for (not hard and fast criteria).. I'm willing to give in one area of the horse makes up for it in another, and Prospect Bay doesn't.

As far as Limit Out (numbers pulled 3 minutes ago off Brisnet):

Starters (/Foals) 71% (going to assume this is lower because they are accounting for his 2yo crop and you aren't?)
Winners (/Foals) 58%
Ave Earnings/Starter $56,859
Ave Earnings/Start $3,624
Median Earnings $21,150
Blacktype Wnrs(/Foals) 7% (I'm asuming your 16% is black type runners, not winners? I look at runners, but don't give it as much weight as winners. Runners should be about double the winners. If the winners is really low but the runners is 3x^, I'll take that into consideration. Black type is actually the lowest weighted of my guidelines.)

1.48 vs 1.40

He's doing his job and for a regional sire, he's fine. I wish his % of starters was a little higher, but he makes up for it in other categories. If I had a mare who fit him, yeah, he's worth considering.

Also, I've noticed you don't seem to care about the percentage of winners . Am i missing something here.?

Yeah

I do care about percentage of winners -- winners from foals, not winners from starters (though, I do LOOK at winners from starters, I just don't give it as much weight), so I don't know how you came to the conclusion that I don't.

I very much have a breed to race mindset, therefore it's more important to me that the horses start and that a little more than half of them win. What good is having 70% winners from starters if you only have a 50% chance that the horses even makes it to the track?

[Foggytrip]

Sam, throw Lucky Lionel up there im curious

[Sam]

I'm not Sam and I wont answer for her, but for me, when the earning averages confirm most of the wins are cheap, bottom level claimers, that does nothing for me.

Precisely. A stallion with $2,500 average earnings per start in an area with slots is garbage collecting. Especially if he has the gap between his AEI and CI that Prospect Bay has.

It's like the AEI/CI argument... I dont automatically take a horse off my short list if he isnt surpassing his CI. There's a lot that can be deceiving.

Especially since only about 30% of stallions improve their mares to begin with. Which is why I have 4 main and a handful of secondary guidelines (depending on whether I'm looking at the stallion as breed to race or breed to sell -- you just can't use breed to race logic on a commercial sire) I look at when it comes to stallion evaluation. I'm willing to let one thing slide (like a low AEI compared to the CI) IF the stallion makes up for it in other areas. Low, however, does not mean throw it in the Hudson and watch it sink.

The only time I throw a stallion out based on the AEI/CI is when there is a huge gap between them -- like Prospect Bay. It's also a relative thing. We're talking about .69% with Prospect Bay. In a regional sire who probably doesn't see a 2.50 CI book, that's a big gap. In a commercial KY sire who sees a 3.50 or higher book... I'm not as put off by it because he probably makes up for it in other areas (most likely, his sales figures).

Take a personal favorite of mine-- Mizzen Mast.

His AEI/CI is 1.06/1.60 Which appears to be extremely bad, but when you take into account his oldest are 3, and that they should only get better going longer and probably on the turf, you have to remove some of the importance of that.

Maven brings up another point. My above guidelines only apply to stallions with at least 5 crops to race because I figure you have a pretty good handle on what the stallion is capable of by then. I'm more lenient on young stallions and look at them differently, a lot of it coloured by what kind of a racehorse they were and what sireline they are from.

For instance, I don't bother looking at AEI/CI at all on a stallion with 4 crops or less because at 4 crops, you're just now starting to see if those horses are going to be late bloomers. I would fully expect a young stallion from the Kris S. line to have a HUGE gap between his AEI/CI for the first couple years, especially if he himself didn't come to hand until his 3yo season.

I also don't use the 75% starters/55% winners on young stallions because not every stallion sires 2yos starters/winners and if you don't get 2yos, obviously those numbers aren't going to be very high. Again, I would never expect a Kris S. or Dynaformer sire to get a lot of early starters/winners, not even if they were one themselves.

First crop sires are a pain... take Posse. They're coming out like their ass is on fire, but that only makes me MORE leary of him because we have no idea if they are going to be able to progress. You couldn't pay me to breed to Posse next year. For all we know, he turns into another Officer or Swiss Yodeler. Cheap early speed at 2yo that fades into oblivion at 3yo.

[Sam]

Sam, throw Lucky Lionel up there im curious

Brisnet's numbers:

Starters (/Foals) 76%
Winners (/Foals) 62%
Ave Earnings/Starter $55,327
Ave Earnings/Start $2,823
Median Earnings $29,364
Blacktype Wnrs(/Foals) 3%

Equineline:

Starters (/Foals) 73%
Winners (/Foals) 58%
Ave Earnings/Starter $54,619
Ave Earnings/Start $2,804
Median Earnings $27,544
Blacktype Wnrs(/Foals) 4%

1.28 vs 1.36

"There's lies, damn lies and statistics"

Interesting, no?

Anyway... according to Brisnet (which I tend to use more than Equineline), LL hits on two of my 4 main criteria (starters and winners) but misses on the other two (blacktype winners and whether he improves his mares). Equineline says he misses on all 4.

Based on the Brisnet numbers -- I wouldn't completely dismiss LL, but I wouldn't be in a hurry to breed to him either. He's in OK, so he doesn't have slots to help his AE/Start (refresh my memory, only LA has slots in that area, right?), that means I'm okay with him making just under $3k. Same for his AE/Starter and his median.. I would expect them to be in that range based on where he is and where most of his foals are likely to run.

What's not shown is that he has (according to Brisnet) 81% winners from starters... on a stallion that gets almost 75% starters from foals, that's almost drool worthy. That means most of them start and damn near all of them win. Plus he seems to get a fair number of repeat winners.

[larrygene]

Sam, Oklahoma has slots.

[Foggytrip]

I just know he has the breeders cup sprint winner this year. Hopefully hell get out of Ok or get some better mares.

Thanks for the data Sam

[Sam]

Sam, Oklahoma has slots.

Thanks, Larry.

That changes my assessment a bit (but not a lot). Far as I'm concerned, a stallion whose progeny has access to slot money should have an average earning per start over $3k (and, he only misses three of my guidelines according to equineline's numbers -- his winners/foals % is fine with me).

Thing is, he's the leader of the pack down there so that buys him some additional leeway.

[Shergar]

Sam, Oklahoma has slots.

Thanks, Larry.

That changes my assessment a bit (but not a lot). Far as I'm concerned, a stallion whose progeny has access to slot money should have an average earning per start over $3k (and, he only misses three of my guidelines according to equineline's numbers -- his winners/foals % is fine with me).

I looked at the entries for Remington on the 23rd. A State bred allowance race is running for a 32.2k purse. A 7.5k claimer is going for 9k. A 7.5k maiden claimer is going for 8k.

If you have a Lucky Lionel running in the allowance ranks, they are running for some decent purses. Once they hit the claiming ranks, as unfortunately most hosses end up, they are running for modest purses.

Thus my question would be, even though they have slots in Ok. they don't seem to have quite the purse structure as WV or Delaware, whould this soften ones view on Lucky Lionel's average earnings per start?

Just food for thought.

Regards, Shergar

[Sam]

Thus my question would be, even though they have slots in Ok. they don't seem to have quite the purse structure as WV or Delaware, whould this soften ones view on Lucky Lionel's average earnings per start?

No... like I said, a stallion in a state where his progeny runs for slot money should be able to make $3k per start. Lucky Lionel doesn't miss it buy that much (less than $200) and one big horse pushes him over the threshold.

Like I said, they aren't a hard and fast set of criteria, just a guideline. LL hits some, misses others but the ones he misses on, he doesn't miss by much. I wouldn't dismiss him if recommending stallions in that market, but I wouldn't be in a hurry to breed to him either.

[kimberley mine]

When you're looking at a stallion, don't forget to spare a thought or two about the mare base he is serving, and whether it fits him as a stallion.

I'm thinking Forbidden Apple here. He is the epitome of the LONG winded turf runner, and he's standing in Florida to a bunch of super-speedy dirt mares (which is what Florida does very well). He might come up with a good one or two (or not), but I'd say that if he were standing in an area with a lot of, say, turf miler mares he might have more success.

[brogers]

Sort of like Kris S.????

Ahhh, Roberto....God's gift to the breeding world. It's still hard to believe that Dynaformer was free to approved mares for his first three or four seasons.

As for Captain Bodgit, I don't see anything in Answering Echo's family to suggest that he'll EVER be a successful stallion. Will he be another Kris S? As a Hail To Reason fan, I'd sure like to see it - but I wouldn't count on his damside helping him any.

Rok

My point there was that Kris S. started with lesser mares in FL and his first sons to stud had average to mediocre female lines to them. Brocco, Kissin Kris, Evening Kris, Prized, etc were hardly bred to make into stallions. Later in his career Kris S. has a couple of sons with pedigree to them like Arch and Dr. Fong. Could the same await Saint Ballado?

[FOS]

hi brogers...hi Rok

Sort of like Kris S.????

Ahhh, Roberto....God's gift to the breeding world. It's still hard to believe that Dynaformer was free to approved mares for his first three or four seasons.

As for Captain Bodgit, I don't see anything in Answering Echo's family to suggest that he'll EVER be a successful stallion. Will he be another Kris S? As a Hail To Reason fan, I'd sure like to see it - but I wouldn't count on his damside helping him any.

Rok

My point there was that Kris S. started with lesser mares in FL and his first sons to stud had average to mediocre female lines to them. Brocco, Kissin Kris, Evening Kris, Prized, etc were hardly bred to make into stallions. Later in his career Kris S. has a couple of sons with pedigree to them like Arch and Dr. Fong. Could the same await Saint Ballado?

I STRONGLY recommend...Please Don't Hold Your Breath.

Respectfully