Which unprovens to breed to in 2005...it's decision time...

Discussion and analysis of thoroughbred stallions.

Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn

User avatar
FOS
Freshman Sire
Posts: 2816
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 1:44 pm

Postby FOS » Tue Jan 04, 2005 8:04 pm

hi LSB

You wrote "I think their recent ads comparing Aldebaran to Speightstown are a particularly effective use of the medium."

LSB...I suggest that such advertisements benefit Speightstown NOT Aldebaran.

Advertisements like that seem to be crying out...'why is Speightstown all but impossible to get to...and we can't fill our book?'

Respectfully

LSB
Grade II Winner
Posts: 1465
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 3:55 pm
Location: Kentucky

Postby LSB » Wed Jan 05, 2005 7:40 am

FOS, I know you're very sure of your opinions, and with all due respect I have to ask...have you considered booking a mare to either of those stallions this year? If not, you're not their target audience.
I have and I find the ads effective. Yes, Speightstown's book filled up faster. I assume you know that the book of a good first crop stallion will almost always fill faster than that of a second crop stallion. This has been a tough year for many breeders (myself included) and some books seemingly filled overnight.

So what if the ads are saying, "for those of you who wanted Speightstown and didn't get him, look how favorably we compare"? I still think they offer excellent food for thought.

User avatar
FOS
Freshman Sire
Posts: 2816
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 1:44 pm

Postby FOS » Wed Jan 05, 2005 11:34 am

hi LSB

I wish you (and everyone) success with the stallion selections.

In the case of Aldebaran he may be worthy of consideration (and may be fine) but I also suggest he may be out of the wrong kind of mare (Private Account)...and from a family that generally produces elite TURF horses. To me, those are SERIOUS concerns (for starters).

Aldebaran's second dam being by Northfields suggests that...she being the dam of top-turfer Denon, and granddam of another top-turfer Spinning World. And there is turf turf turf everywhere everywhere everywhere...Ile de Bourbon...Malinowski...Xaar...Gielgud etc etc etc.

Furthermore...it's a cross (Mr. P out of a Private Account) that has failed (just short of miserably) at Claiborne with Mr. Phipps' Our Emblem. And despite his quality son War Emblem...Our Emblem is NOT getting it done.
OUCH.

I suggest those are just some of the things that should be considered seriously...before signing up (to use Aldebaran) for $40k or $50k. I also suggest that his stud fee is out of line (and not justifiable)...ALL THINGS CONSIDERED.

Aldebaran may be successful (at least to some extent) as a sire...but I have my doubts as to his genuine market appeal (at least until he proves something). Conversely...I suggest that buyers and thoroughbred aficionados will be all over the Speightstowns.

I expect that DD will be fine...and I wish supporters of Aldebaran success (but I DO NOT feel confident that will be the case...at least for most who may be in at $40k or $50k).

I suggest that you consider Vindication (at $50k or $60k)...Sky Mesa (at $30k)...and many others vs Aldebaran (at $40k or $50k).

Best to you.

Respectfully

LSB
Grade II Winner
Posts: 1465
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 3:55 pm
Location: Kentucky

Postby LSB » Wed Jan 05, 2005 12:02 pm

So basically your objections to the horse are the fact that there's a lot of turf in his pedigree (which you feel totally negates the fact that he himself ran well on dirt?) and...

FOS wrote:...it's a cross (Mr. P out of a Private Account) that has failed (just short of miserably) at Claiborne with Mr. Phipps' Our Emblem. And despite his quality son War Emblem...Our Emblem is NOT getting it done.
OUCH.


I'm sorry but to me a sample of ONE has zero validity. The fact that Our Emblem isn't making it as a sire has nothing to do with whether or not Aldebaran will succeed. In fact a sample of one is too small to draw any conclusions at all.

Aldebaran may succeed, he may not; I have no stake in the outcome either way. I'm just always sorry to see nice horses trashed here by posts that sound knowledgeable on the surface but whose logic doesn't bear closer scrutiny.

User avatar
FOS
Freshman Sire
Posts: 2816
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 1:44 pm

Postby FOS » Wed Jan 05, 2005 12:45 pm

hi LSB

Regarding Private Account...you may agree he has not fared particularly well as a sire of sires (Corportate Report...Top Account...Private Terms etc)...and has also NOT fared well as a broodmare sire of sires...Our Emblem...Proud and True etc.

Not a small thing...and certainly worthy of serious discussion when considering breeding to a young stallion standing for a $40k or $50k fee that is out of a Private Account mare...and from the same EXACT cross that produced Our Emblem...OUCH again.

You wrote "I'm just always sorry to see nice horses trashed here by posts that sound knowledgeable on the surface but whose logic doesn't bear closer scrutiny."

I HAVE NOT said that Aldebaran is not a "nice" horse...what has been said is that ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...his stud fee is out of line...and I suggest his market appeal WILL NOT justify his $40k or $50k fee (unless and until he proves something).

"Trashing" a stallion (as you call it)...is TOTALLY different than scrutinizing all of the facets pertaining to a horse...in hopes of properly evaluating him as a stallion prospect (which leads to determining an appropriate stud fee).

I suggest that Aldebaran had a stud fee tagged on him that is out of line...and his market appeal will not justify it...and his ALL-TURF family raises serious questions...as does the fact that he is out of a Private Account mare...the broodmare sire of another son of the GREAT Mr. Prospector that has flopped and floundered...Our Emblem.

Meaningless coincidence...maybe...but to ignore it (or simply glance over it) is ridiculous.

Best to you.

Respectfully

User avatar
FOS
Freshman Sire
Posts: 2816
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 1:44 pm

Postby FOS » Fri Jan 07, 2005 8:50 pm

hi guys

How about this wide-ranging cross section of unprovens:

$4,000 Mongoose...Fla

$5,000 Full Mandate...Fla

$5,000 Thunderello...NY

$7,500 Omega Code...Fla

10,000 Chapel Royal...Ky

20,000 El Corredor...Ky

30,000 Sky Mesa...Ky

35,000 Medaglia d'Oro...Ky

40,000 Speightstown...Ky

60,000 Vindication...Ky

Respectfully

Nicki
Suckling
Posts: 21
Joined: Fri Dec 17, 2004 12:45 pm
Location: cali and florida
Contact:

Postby Nicki » Fri Jan 07, 2005 9:11 pm

FOS wrote:hi guys

How about this wide-ranging cross section of unprovens:

$4,000 Mongoose...Fla

$5,000 Full Mandate...Fla

$5,000 Thunderello...NY

$7,500 Omega Code...Fla

10,000 Chapel Royal...Ky

20,000 El Corredor...Ky

30,000 Sky Mesa...Ky

35,000 Medaglia d'Oro...Ky

40,000 Speightstown...Ky

60,000 Vindication...Ky

Respectfully


The reason for my Sky Mesa post, besides the fact of having a 2yo filly who's old sister is in foal to Sky Mesa, is that while in Florida inspecting the Giant's Causeway filly I had mentioned previously, we came across an Unbridled filly who was for sale as a race/broodmare prospect for what I feel is an exceptional price. Her name is Uncork, 00 Unbridled-Lovat's Lady, Lord at War. She was a real nice allowance filly with some talent and she trails itf to La Troienne through Lady Winborne and Priceless Gem.

She's a huge filly which is about the only Unbridled trait she has. She's very thickly and powerfully made with GREAT legs which was the first thing we looked at. Her hip is awesome. Her shoulder slopes a tad but her walk is very good and her overall action is excellent. She's rather masculine looking and seems a tad aggressive but I dont mind seeing that at all, although we were told she really isnt aggressive, just very "rough" with her inquisitive nature (there's some word plays for you). She looks a lot like her b.m.s. Lord at War which is where a lot of the soundness probably came from.

Although this line of La Troienne hasnt thrown that "big" horse until you go back to the 3rd dam, the light blacktype under the first two dams was forgiveable to me which usually isnt the case. Everything about this filly got me excited and we made sure to get her.

Its pretty late to secure the "hot" young sires but i'm going to call Three Chimney's tomorrow and nominate her for Sky Mesa. I cant ignore his pedigree and his race record. He was a brilliant two year old from an extremely active and talented line of La Troienne. Uncork was at her best at 4 so we wanted to add some "versatile" speed to her and he fits the bill. The linebreedings to La Troienne is also exciting. Early results to inbreeding to Mr. P seem to have been pretty successful so the close-up doubling of him doesnt bother me much especially with buyers at the sales not being concerned with it either.

Sorry to ramble but I guess i'm just excited about this filly and the possibilities.

User avatar
Ryeno
Allowance Winner
Posts: 433
Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 7:38 pm

Postby Ryeno » Fri Jan 07, 2005 9:19 pm

No need to appoligize Nicki,thats what this game is all about,to dream the dream for that proverbial big horse!

Ryeno
"The easiest way to end up with a million dollars in the horseracing business is to start with 3 million!"

liberty
Maiden Special Weight
Posts: 148
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2004 6:11 am
Location: md
Contact:

Postby liberty » Fri Jan 07, 2005 9:29 pm

Hi Bill from Washington!

Who is your 2005 Successful Appeal? My memory says that you called that in 2004.

User avatar
FOS
Freshman Sire
Posts: 2816
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 1:44 pm

Postby FOS » Fri Jan 07, 2005 10:09 pm

hi Nicki

It sounds like the physical match may be perfect...Sky Mesa is a POWERHOUSE...

...and I expect Unbridled will be an outstanding broodmare-sire.

I believe they'll be limiting Sky Mesa's book to approx 110...he may not be the easiest to get a season to.

Best to you.

Respectfully

halo
Starters Handicap
Posts: 638
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:30 am
Location: Florida

Postby halo » Sat Jan 08, 2005 6:32 am

[quote="FOS"]hi LSB

Regarding Private Account...you may agree he has not fared particularly well as a sire of sires (Corportate Report...Top Account...Private Terms etc)...and has also NOT fared well as a broodmare sire of sires...Our Emblem...Proud and True etc.

Not a small thing...and certainly worthy of serious discussion when considering breeding to a young stallion standing for a $40k or $50k fee that is out of a Private Account mare...and from the same EXACT cross that produced Our Emblem...OUCH again.


Respectfully[/quote]

Good one, FOS. Start picking on a horse's broodmare sire if you can't find anything else that you dont like. Im sure you must have ragged on Deputy Minister and Successful Appeal and Elusive Quality, too. I mean, who could possibly like the broodmare sires Bunty's Flight, Fortunate Prospect, and Hero's Honor.

It would sure be interesting to know what you consider a successful stallion. Im thinking it must be a horse who can throw a high priced sales yearling. Amazing how performance on the race track means absolutely nothing anymore. To say Private Terms hasnt been a success must be a difference in understanding what a success is. He has had many good solid stakes horses, and 2 exceptional ones in Soul of the Matter and Afternoon Deelites, with little opportunity. Our Emblem has had a few successful race horses in his early crops, again with little support. I think its highly likely he could produce a few more good ones. But they arent successful in the sales ring, so that makes them unsuccessful stallions? Pitiful thinking.

FOS, you'd better hope and pray that your oh so perfect Full Mandate can produce horses even half as good as Private Terms and OUr Emblem has produced. Odds are he wont.

LSB
Grade II Winner
Posts: 1465
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 3:55 pm
Location: Kentucky

Postby LSB » Sat Jan 08, 2005 7:54 am

Nicki, congratulations on your purchase of Uncork! I had followed her racing career and saw her in November at the Keeneland sale. Three Chimneys may let you slip her in but Sky Mesa's book is already closed and has been for some time.

User avatar
Mahubah
Freshman Sire
Posts: 2774
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 2:23 pm
Location: Lake City, Florida

Postby Mahubah » Sat Jan 08, 2005 8:05 am

Nicki, sounds like you have made a very nice purchase. If you cannot get Uncork into a more commercial stallion, you might want to consider Slew City Slew, because this cross would be similar to what produced G2 winner Evansville Slew (whose first dam by Fappiano, 2nd dam by a son of *Sea-Bird). If you can't get a top sales prospect, you can at least have a pretty good shot of getting a nice runner that can enhance the mare's value on down the line.
"A man who was merely a man and said the sort of things Jesus said would not be a great moral teacher...You must make your choice. Either this man was, and is, the Son of God: or else a madman or something worse." C. S. Lewis

Bill from WA
Breeder's Cup Contender
Posts: 1936
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:20 am
Location: Mountlake Terrace, WA

Postby Bill from WA » Sat Jan 08, 2005 10:39 am

Hi Liberty

Three on my "watch list" are Delaware Township, Talk Is Money, and Thunderello.

Bill
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.

Langston Hughes

llbean
Grade III Winner
Posts: 1032
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:23 pm
Contact:

Postby llbean » Sat Jan 08, 2005 11:08 am

Hi FOS,

I love the way you're coming down so hard on Private Account; the other poster made some good points about his sons not getting such great oppurtunity, but your post has gotten me thinking about the recent decline of the Phipps breds and what's up with that.

Contrary to popular belief, La Trioenne's importance on the last 20 years is based far more in the success of inbreeding to her than what her tail female decendants have done (at least in terms of the percentage of Stakes Winners, she has gone from the statosphere to nearly the breed average as she has gotten further back in the female lines; perhaps bad culling is related to this, but it's kind of like when a stallion gets a lot of SW and it's partly due to him getting bred to so many mares, even if a lot of the mares were of poor quality or poorly selected, it still makes the number less impressive).

It's quite possible that inbreeding to La Trioenne is better when one of the strains in the female line though; at least if she comes through certain daughters or granddaughters (Striking, Big Hurry, Busanda).

If you go Seattle Slew ('74), Private Account ('76), and Easy Goer ('86); each was progressively less successful at stud. That could be a coincidence; but I wonder if slight chinks in the armor are starting to show.

I wonder how Leading The Parade will do as a older horse; even if he does do good, it's interesting that it was outcrossing to the La Trioenne linebreeding in the dam that led to the 2YO Champion (Storm Flag Flying), and continued inbreeding that led to the (at best) old-fashioned cup type horse.

I could be dead wrong on La Trioenne though; we'll see how Smarty Jones and Mineshaft do (worth noting both are from the same branch, it's natural that certain strains will start to take over as it's not good at the top level to have the by far the strongest female line influence too far back).

-llbean
Last edited by llbean on Sat Jan 08, 2005 12:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.