Biggest freshman disappointment of 2008?

[UmmYeah]

Just remember Kingmambo.

After Kingmambo's first crop raced, people said you couldn't give his babies away they raced so badly at 2.

How time have changed. Since then he has become a leading sire and one of the most expensive stallions in the world.

Lesson: At least give a guy a couple of crops to prove himself.

Ditto Tiznow. He was seen as a big disappointment at first, and with his first crop, some people were saying "It's Folklore and little more." Just look at him now.

So the moral is, have patience.

[Patuxet]

Dave C writes: "... 70% of new stallions are flops".

I assume then that you're suggesting that 30% of new stallions enjoy some degree of success. This strikes me an extraordinarily generous assessment, at least 20% higher than any best case assessment I've ever encountered. How did you come up with this figure?

[Dave C]

Just a rule of thumb I picked up somewhere: 70% are flops, 20% are mediocre, and 10% are successful.

[ASB]

Just remember Kingmambo.

After Kingmambo's first crop raced, people said you couldn't give his babies away they raced so badly at 2.

How time have changed. Since then he has become a leading sire and one of the most expensive stallions in the world.

Lesson: At least give a guy a couple of crops to prove himself.

Ditto Tiznow. He was seen as a big disappointment at first, and with his first crop, some people were saying "It's Folklore and little more." Just look at him now.

So the moral is, have patience.

Folklore was a champion juvenile from his first crop. That was more than enough evidence to suggest he could get a good horse. She bought him patience. Also, while a few have been very nice on the dirt, Tiznow really came alive with the intro of the fake.

[Monmouth Matt]

Alot of blanket calls on very different types of stallions....sounds similiar to the "failures" of Lemon Drop Kid...Tiznow...Arch and a host of other strong sires who didn't get 5.5 f. sprinters as 2 yr. olds. I don't think breeders or buyers expected much out of their Perfect Soul or Seattle Fitz juveniles. Smarty Jones....who knows...but way too early to write him off...stud-fee was rediculous, buy most are intially. Spanish Steps....wouldn't breed to or buy for free.

[Tappiano]

I would say my top five (worst) are: Smarty Jones, Stong Hope, Perfect Soul, Ten Most Wanted and Spanish Steps. Ten Most Wanted only has two winners from 41 starters! Spanish Steps was much hyped in Florida and is doing ok, but not enough for me to be excited about him...especially since they jumped his fee to $10K after his first year at stud.

spanish steps is the full brother to unbridled isn't he? he did get alot of hype. even had a 200k yearling

Wasn't there a lot of "interest" and bidding by the people who own him, hence the higher prices?

Any horse that did not race at 2 and did not have a lot of two year old winners so far I wouldn't consider a disappointment. A year from now if they still show nothing I would agree.

I think a lot of the mares Claiborne used with Strong Hope don't exactly scream of "precocity" so let's see what happens in the next few weeks. I think he's had more winners the last month then he did the prior two months so maybe now they're just rolling. I just hope it's not the same situation as with Polish Navy where they were really good until they got onto the track and started working out and promptly fell apart.

umm..spanish steps is unraced. period.

I wasn't justifying a horse that didn't race period, I was saying a horse that did not race at 2 but did race a 3 and or/at 4 I would not consider a disappointment if his first crop didn't yield a lot of winners.