Which young stallions have genuine MARKET APPEAL ?

[FOS]

Hi guys

It certainly appears (based on recent Keeneland sales results) that Yonaguska had some serious market appeal...a $200k weanling and a $210k...impressive.

And others by the speedy son of Cherokee Run apparently sold quite well also...certainly in relation to the $10,000 advertised stud fee.

Respectfully

[bcassidy]

Great Thread, somehow I missed it earlier. I can give my input even though the breed to sell category is not my strength. In the lower level price categories, I think you have to go with a freshman stallion with lots of hype. You are selling the hype of the stallion certainly not the racing ability of the stallion so there is probably less risk in this choice. Low stud fee, no quantitative results, lots of hype, what a combination. Just hope you get a great looking individual and you are well on your way. In the older but still under 10,000 stud fee range, I like, ( in no particular order ) Eltish, Outflanker, Judge TC, Lycius, West Acre, Meadow Monster, Arch, Evansville Slew, and Petionville. I think good looking foals from any of these stallions will give you an excellent chance of making a profit, especially if one or more of their other foals runs well before you have to sell your foal.
In the 10,000 catagory, I love Northern Afleet and like Mutakkdim, Sky Classic and Boundary. In the 20,000 dollar catagory, I love Montbrook and Smoke Glacken and like Smart Stike. In the 50,000 catagory I love Distorted Humor and Grand Slan and like Mr. Greely. In the 100k and up catagory, I love Gone West, and like Elusive Quality. Just my thoughts would appreciate hearing comments from anyone else on my input.

[el camino]

Petionville is great but no longer in the under 10,000 class with the others. He needs a good sized mare, as he is on the small side.

[henthorn]

Forest Camp's foals are the most consistently good looking I've seen. This weanling group at Keeneland had fifteen sell as of yesterday, with the range $22K to $170K. Three were over $100k, and three were under $50K. This spring will be his fourth season, so his oldest are yearlings, and they are also selling very well. He is expected to remain at $15K stud fee for next year, but since he is from Deputy Minister and was a very fast sprinter himself, I expect him to be having successful youngsters on the track when the 2006 foals are ready to sell as weanlings or yearlings.

I've seen him in person and was very impressed. His racing career was curtailed due to a hock infection, not injury. If I didn't already have Shake On It committed to Saarland and Spanish Guitar to Arch, I would definitely try to get one of them to him.

[FOS]

Hi guys

Now that Keeneland '04 has come to a conclusion...it seems that Yes It's True made a big impression. His '04's sold very well at OBS and the enthusiasm and interest continued through Keeneland. Seemed like quite often, the hammer was coming down (on the Yes It's Trues) in the $50,000+- to 100,000+- range. Quite impressive for a stallion that stood for $10,000 live in 2004.

Even though his fee's been "bumped" to $25k for 2005...Yes It's True still appears to be good value. Clearly his market appeal was strong, at least based on what we've seen thus far (at the sales and at the tracks).

Another stallion with first weanlings 2004 is Yonaguska. Standing for $10k live...he had a couple get hammered down for pretty significant numbers (one at $200,000, another at $210,000)...and there were others that appeared to sell for good multiples (of his stud fee).

He obviously passed his first test for market appeal with flying colors...obviously some of his '04 weanlings opened some eyes...and he's probably a stallion to consider for 2005.

Respectfully

[henthorn]

Include is a talented son of Broad Brush with market appeal. His weanlings sold well, many of them above $50K, and his stud fee is $12,500 again in 2005. I love this guy, and am glad Hop to It's foal due in the spring is just his second crop, so hopefully the prices will hold at least that long. I expect him to start having good runners by his fourth or fifth year, so I wouldn't necessarily breed to him "on the bubble" in his third year at stud 2005. Likely his fee will come down by the fourth year, and that crop's yearlings would be sold in 2008, when he'll have 2,3,and 4yo runners on the track. Similar to Alphabet Soup and Arch, whose stud fees are now rising. The value is in their runners and potentially in foal prices by their fourth and fifth years.

[LSB]

henthorn, I agree with you about Forest Camp. I saw many of his yearlings at Keeneland in September and their uniformity was amazing--a consistently good looking bunch. He really stamps his offspring. I don't want to breed to him this year, but he's definitely one I'll consider for the future.

[henthorn]

I didn't attend the sale, but Orientate and Officer had good foal prices. I liked Orientate better in the flesh, better balanced, not as long-backed as Officer.

Obviously many sires' foals will sell best as yearlings or 2yo's and not as weanlings. A good rule of thumb is that if very few weanlings are offered for sale at auction, that sire doesn't produce mature-looking foals, and probably they won't be commercial at least at that age. The owners are keeping them to race or will try to sell them as they further develop.

The converse is also true--early bloomers also may be early runners, but may not continue to grow as large as the other horses who take more time to do so. Remember Arazi? Blazing fast at two, but was almost finished growing already, and couldn't compete at three.

[FOS]

Hi henthorn

Must say...the Officer weanlings I've seen all had the longer back, similar to their sire.

Could be a positive...only time will tell.

Respectfully

[el camino]

Any one ever looked at Paynes Bay?

[el camino]

Is it just me or does it seem like the quality of incoming stallions for 2005 is a deeper and more talented pool than we have seen in years?

[Kim]

Could you name some of the ones that you have in mind? Any in the $10,000 and under range?

[Mahubah]

Saarland is supposed to make his first season at $10,000, isn't he? Tremendous pedigree, for sure.

[el camino]

I like Candy Ride in the 10,000 and under category. Definately some issues with him, but his race talent warrants a role of the dice at that price. I also like the two new Elusive Quality sons at those prices.

[Mahubah]

Um. I'd forgotten about Candy Ride, but he sure could run -- looks like mare owners will need to be careful about not sending ladies with bad feet to him, though. Might match up quite nicely with mares from the In Reality line, which seems to like Fappiano and Lyphard, provided the mares chosen don't have the small feet sometimes seen among the IRs.