Because, in terms of career, one is on his way up and one is on his way down.
Tiznow, with the win at Oak Tree today, is now the #2 sire on synthetic/Poly surfaces in North America (only Bold Executive is higher thanks to Woodbine). #2 for $25,000? Not a bad deal, if you ask me. Point Given is #27 - where you'd expect a $25,000 stallion to be.
If this little tidbit winds up on the TM Website link to Tiznow tomorrow, Rokeby Productions expects a royalty fee. hehehe
Stud fees
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Rokeby Forever
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What synthetics are to California racing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU
You can argue Tiznow has had the better book and has always been priced where Point Given SHOULD have been. The numbers are there... Tiznow should be the better stallion with the amount of foals and CI, but it's just not showing that... yet.
Like I said, I expect Point Given to be the more consistent stallion, with Tiznow getting the occasional bigger horse.
Nite nite, Rok.
Like I said, I expect Point Given to be the more consistent stallion, with Tiznow getting the occasional bigger horse.
Nite nite, Rok.
Don't be so humble - you are not that great.
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Rokeby Forever
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kimberley mine
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Rokeby Forever wrote:Maven - Point Given, I remind you, started off at $125,000 (as best I recall).
You are correct. He stood for $125k, then it fell to $75k, then $50k, and now $30k with rumours of $15k in the offing.
He has slumped down the stud fee ladder because he's starting to wear the "turf sire" label (tho' he has sired some nice dirt horses), and I understand that his stud career has had problems due to his hocks.
That and he sired a bunch of big, ungainly, clumsy oafs of yearlings. They did next to nothing at 2, which combined with the big Baby Huey yearlings was the kiss of death at the sales. On top of it all, he lost out on a lot of support when the Thoroughbred Corp dispersed...hmmm, not commercial at the sales, not producing at the track, not getting the mares in...recipe for a massive drop in fee.
Remember: when the breeder (for racing or sales or both) can't make a profit, either they talk the fee down or they take their business elsewhere. Point Given's fee fell from heaven down to earth. Not sure if some breeders have taken business back to Three Chimneys yet after the bath they took on his yearlings. How's Smarty doing, anyway?
Like a bellybutton? I always heard of another body part being used in that analogy.
I've heard that too. I try to be ladylike, don't always succeed but at least I can try.
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kimberley mine
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bcassidy
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Rokeby, your data is certainly compelling and I appreciate the effort you put into making your points but as I have said a few times in the past--- I love Officer. He was a steal at 15k in 2006 (and I would have really liked to breed to him this past year at that price) but I do think he is very fairly priced at 40k. He is one of those stallions--- that in a few years we look back at and say, Why didn't I breed to him at 40k? He was such a good price then.
My guess is that Officer and Northern Afleet will be two of the better stallions at Taylor Made when all is said and done.
Time will tell--- but I am not afraid to stick my neck out on both of these stallions. I think both of them are far better than Forestry or Unbridled's Song, I only wish that either of the two that I like could cover the BOMs that Forestry and Unbridleds Song have seen.
My guess is that Officer and Northern Afleet will be two of the better stallions at Taylor Made when all is said and done.
Time will tell--- but I am not afraid to stick my neck out on both of these stallions. I think both of them are far better than Forestry or Unbridled's Song, I only wish that either of the two that I like could cover the BOMs that Forestry and Unbridleds Song have seen.
best regards Brendan
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Rokeby Forever
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Hi Bcassidy - always good to see your thoughts on the board.
It's fine that you like Officer, but I tend to think of him as a "pinhook" type sire - he gets his share of "early" horses. But with his first crop to race off to such a fast start and, yet, only one Grade III winner from the bunch, I have yet to see the Officer progeny develop from early wins. Thus, I think $40K at this stage is pretty steep.
No argument with Northern Afleet. I like a lot of things about him as a stallion, and LOVE him when he's bred to a mare that carries NO Northern Dancer - that's where his good ones come from.
When I look at Tiznow at $25,000, I say to myself, "There's the #2 artificial surface sire in North America and he can certainly sire a Grade 1 type horse. If Tiznows have soundness issues, maybe their preference for the artificials will keep them on those surfaces, and maybe they'll last longer than they have." With Officer at $40,000, I say to myself, "He does get early winners, but they seem to hit a brick wall on the development road."
As you write, time will tell, but as far as stallion selection in 2008, I think Tiznow offers more for less.
It's fine that you like Officer, but I tend to think of him as a "pinhook" type sire - he gets his share of "early" horses. But with his first crop to race off to such a fast start and, yet, only one Grade III winner from the bunch, I have yet to see the Officer progeny develop from early wins. Thus, I think $40K at this stage is pretty steep.
No argument with Northern Afleet. I like a lot of things about him as a stallion, and LOVE him when he's bred to a mare that carries NO Northern Dancer - that's where his good ones come from.
When I look at Tiznow at $25,000, I say to myself, "There's the #2 artificial surface sire in North America and he can certainly sire a Grade 1 type horse. If Tiznows have soundness issues, maybe their preference for the artificials will keep them on those surfaces, and maybe they'll last longer than they have." With Officer at $40,000, I say to myself, "He does get early winners, but they seem to hit a brick wall on the development road."
As you write, time will tell, but as far as stallion selection in 2008, I think Tiznow offers more for less.
bcassidy wrote:
My guess is that Officer and Northern Afleet will be two of the better stallions at Taylor Made when all is said and done.
Time will tell--- but I am not afraid to stick my neck out on both of these stallions. I think both of them are far better than Forestry or Unbridled's Song, I only wish that either of the two that I like could cover the BOMs that Forestry and Unbridleds Song have seen.
I know you've mentioned liking Northern Afleet before so I wish you'd expand on that. He's a coming 15 year old stallion with quite a few crops behind him who has 3 stakes winners this year (and, I believe, a total of 11 from previous years.) His 2007 earnings place him at #61 on the general sires list. At the moment his biggest, and perhaps only, claim to fame is as the sire of Afleet Alex. When is he going to start to get good?
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Rokeby Forever
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LB wrote:At the moment his biggest, and perhaps only, claim to fame is as the sire of Afleet Alex. When is he going to start to get good?
To Northern Afleet's defense, he's not a $100,000 one hit wonder like Elusive Quality. Throw our Smarty Jones...why is this stallion at $100,000? You can get to Northern Afleet seven times for that.
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Rokeby Forever
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WHAT??? Elusive Quality is the BIGGEST one hit wonder since:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FeIF-7f ... ed&search=
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FeIF-7f ... ed&search=
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bcassidy
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LB and Maven, I try to find stallions that improve their mares and offer tremendous value at their stud fee and I prefer to find these stallions before the market has found them.
I have a privately devised system which evaluates the racing performance of a stallion's entire racing crop and then compares that crop to another stallion's entire racing crop. I then factor in the CL of the book of mares and adjust the results accordingly. Therefore, stallions such as AP Indy, Forestry, Storm Cat etc (with CLs well above 4.0) would see their performance numbers adjusted lower to reflect their exceptional book of mares----certainly you would expect to see great performances from the racing crops of any of these stallions, but the question for me is how much of that success is dependent upon the stallion vs the mares he has covered?
I also strongly favor high value stallions in my system, so that a stallion that gives you equal performance at a lower stud fee would receive a better number in my system.
With these criteria guiding my selection process both Northern Afleet and Officer score very high in my system. I am sure you remember that NA moved from FLa to Ky 2 years ago and the 2007 yearling crop will be the first crop to race from what should be a much better book of mares. NA did so much with a very modest book of mares in florida that I find it very difficult to believe his success will not exceed expectations with these better mares. I only hope that Taylor Made was able to get a much better book for him-----NA is not Our Emblem (even though some people try to compare them) and I am a little concerned that the Our Emblem influence has affected NA's chances (by hurting his chances at getting a better book of mares) a little bit in the short run, in the long run I am still not concerned about what he will prove he can do. Mybe Byron can comment on NA's book of mares the last 2 yrs compared to what he covered in Fla.
Officer is in a very similar situation to NA but at a much higher stud fee now---- then when I first found him, so his value number is much lower now---- but he still improves his mares considerably and Rokeby's points about graded stakes wins will hopefully be dealt with in the near future. I find it difficult to believe that Officer's racing crops will not continue to improve with age and get the graded stakes wins you would expect to see with his other performance success. It just wouldn't seem logical to assume that it won't materialize.
I try to evaluate stallions based upon as much hard data as possible and try not to be influenced by a single or a few very good runners. In so doing I hope to improve my chances of breeding exceptional race performers while doing so with a very modest band of broodmares. I hope this helps to explain why I like both of these stallions so much.
For the record right now I also like, Trippi, West Acre, and Put it Back in florida; Limit Out in West Va; Outflanker and Lion Hearted in Md; Comeonmom, Eltish and Lycius in NY; Northern Afleet, Five Star Day, Officer, Smoke Glacken, Mutakddim, Smart Stike, Elusive Quality, Gone West, Distorted Humor and a few others in Ky. Hopefully you will notice that my selections are not totally based on inexpensive stud fees, ironically, Distorted Humor probably represents the greatest value in my system. In my opinion he will become the top stallion in the world in the very near future----He is better than any stallion I have ever tracked and still represents value at his current stud fee---Just my opinions based upon my system and I would love to hear comments on any of these stallions as it may help me to refine my system as I move forward. My greatest challenge is still separating the stallion from the book of mares he has covered. In my opinion most casual breeding fans seem to always talk about the great runners a stallion has produced and not the more important fact---(in my opinion) which stallion is improving the mares the best and most consistent.
As I have also said on this forum many times I have been a breed to race breeder and breeding for the commercial market is a very different proposition. I can absolutely see why some commercial breeding decisions are selected---my only problem with these decisions is that they look good at the sale and often don't materialize at the race track.
I have a privately devised system which evaluates the racing performance of a stallion's entire racing crop and then compares that crop to another stallion's entire racing crop. I then factor in the CL of the book of mares and adjust the results accordingly. Therefore, stallions such as AP Indy, Forestry, Storm Cat etc (with CLs well above 4.0) would see their performance numbers adjusted lower to reflect their exceptional book of mares----certainly you would expect to see great performances from the racing crops of any of these stallions, but the question for me is how much of that success is dependent upon the stallion vs the mares he has covered?
I also strongly favor high value stallions in my system, so that a stallion that gives you equal performance at a lower stud fee would receive a better number in my system.
With these criteria guiding my selection process both Northern Afleet and Officer score very high in my system. I am sure you remember that NA moved from FLa to Ky 2 years ago and the 2007 yearling crop will be the first crop to race from what should be a much better book of mares. NA did so much with a very modest book of mares in florida that I find it very difficult to believe his success will not exceed expectations with these better mares. I only hope that Taylor Made was able to get a much better book for him-----NA is not Our Emblem (even though some people try to compare them) and I am a little concerned that the Our Emblem influence has affected NA's chances (by hurting his chances at getting a better book of mares) a little bit in the short run, in the long run I am still not concerned about what he will prove he can do. Mybe Byron can comment on NA's book of mares the last 2 yrs compared to what he covered in Fla.
Officer is in a very similar situation to NA but at a much higher stud fee now---- then when I first found him, so his value number is much lower now---- but he still improves his mares considerably and Rokeby's points about graded stakes wins will hopefully be dealt with in the near future. I find it difficult to believe that Officer's racing crops will not continue to improve with age and get the graded stakes wins you would expect to see with his other performance success. It just wouldn't seem logical to assume that it won't materialize.
I try to evaluate stallions based upon as much hard data as possible and try not to be influenced by a single or a few very good runners. In so doing I hope to improve my chances of breeding exceptional race performers while doing so with a very modest band of broodmares. I hope this helps to explain why I like both of these stallions so much.
For the record right now I also like, Trippi, West Acre, and Put it Back in florida; Limit Out in West Va; Outflanker and Lion Hearted in Md; Comeonmom, Eltish and Lycius in NY; Northern Afleet, Five Star Day, Officer, Smoke Glacken, Mutakddim, Smart Stike, Elusive Quality, Gone West, Distorted Humor and a few others in Ky. Hopefully you will notice that my selections are not totally based on inexpensive stud fees, ironically, Distorted Humor probably represents the greatest value in my system. In my opinion he will become the top stallion in the world in the very near future----He is better than any stallion I have ever tracked and still represents value at his current stud fee---Just my opinions based upon my system and I would love to hear comments on any of these stallions as it may help me to refine my system as I move forward. My greatest challenge is still separating the stallion from the book of mares he has covered. In my opinion most casual breeding fans seem to always talk about the great runners a stallion has produced and not the more important fact---(in my opinion) which stallion is improving the mares the best and most consistent.
As I have also said on this forum many times I have been a breed to race breeder and breeding for the commercial market is a very different proposition. I can absolutely see why some commercial breeding decisions are selected---my only problem with these decisions is that they look good at the sale and often don't materialize at the race track.
best regards Brendan