Stud fees

[Rokeby Forever]

Hiya Bcassidy,

Cozzene stood for $35,000 in 2007. He's getting on in years, but when you mentioned stallions that improve broodmares, you left him off your list. I'm wondering your thoughts on him.

[Maven]

Well that's my problem... Northern Afleet's track performance. His numbers aren't a whole lot better than Sweetsouthernsaint's who still stands in Florida for 3.5k.

At 15k, Northern Afleet is a huge gamble. Yes, he started to see better mares, and he will have every chance to prove himself a Kentucky stallion, but if I'm breeding to race, there's a lot better options that are proven for a lot less than 15k.

[Rokeby Forever]

At 15k, Northern Afleet is a huge gamble. Yes, he started to see better mares, and he will have every chance to prove himself a Kentucky stallion, but if I'm breeding to race, there's a lot better options that are proven for a lot less than 15k.

When Northern Afleet is bred to mares that are free of Northern Dancer, the AEI/CI differential is almost 1.00 - how is that a "gamble" at $15,000?

[Maven]

How many horses are you basing that off of? And how many people have mares that are free of Northern Dancer? There's better options at that price or less across the board.

[Maven]

How many horses are you basing that off of? And how many people have mares that are free of Northern Dancer? There's better options at that price or less across the board.

It's also worth noting if there's one broodmare population that is light on Northern Dancer in this country its in Florida. It might be less of a nick and just a representation of the mares he had to work with.

[Rokeby Forever]

Take a look at Northern Afleet's top 10 earners - what do they ALL have in common?

[Maven]

Almost all were from lines readily available in Florida. Again, Northern Dancer has not saturated the broodmare population in Florida.

And I'm sure your new AEI/CI of +1.00 did not factor in the mares that produced next to nothing while still being Northern Dancer free. So it's not a legitimate AEI/CI comparison.

[bcassidy]

Rokeby---you are correct about Cozzene, he is a very nice stallion but he used to stand for 60k and he didn't represent enough value in my system to make my list. He tends to throw a foal which requires more time to develop and he is on his way down (in terms of stud fee) rather than on his way up, which would lead me in another direction at this time. He is certainly a very good sire but for the above reasons I would probably go to another stallion----all things being equal.
For 40k, you might be better off to go to Officer (as an example) with the hope that Officer could be standing for substantially more in the near future, I understand your point about the risk but that would be the decision I would make. As a broodmare sire he is also wonderful but I don't select stallions solely on their broodmare potential. I would rather buy those mares in the open market or claim one out of a race.

[bcassidy]

Maven----I didn't understand your comment about track performance???? whose? the stallions own record or his progeny's?
I base my decisions off the progeny's performance not the stallion's own track performance. Too many people rely on track performance of the stallion as an indicator of breeding potential when in my opinion they are not linked. I would rather breed to a stallion that produces fast horses not necessarily one that raced fast himself.
That is the key ingredient to my system-----Northern Afleet produces much faster horses than Sweetsouthernsaint in my own system. So I don't agree with your comment that both stallions are the same.
If you are looking in Florida, Put it Back and Trippi are very nice stallions for the money.

[Maven]

No, I'm going by his progeny's track performance. Northern Afleet has two more crops to race than Sweetsouthernsaint and 173 more horses of racing age (literally 3 crops of mares for Sweetsouthernsaint).

Northern Afleet has seen a better book of mares (CI of 1.43 compared to 1.05 of SSS) but only has one more graded stakes winner than SSS. Although he does have twice as many stakes winners (as he should with his book and added crops), he only has 1 more stakes placed runner.

Northen Afleet's other numbers are better than SSS but he does have better mares and more crops to pad the numbers than SSS has had.

I'm not saying Northern Afleet is a bad stallion... he's not. But he's certainly NOT worth $11,500 more in stud fee than SSS. Let's be honest, the only reason Northern Afleet is in Kentucky is because of Afleet Alex.

At 15k or less you can go to proven sires Royal Academy (15k), Pleasant Tap (15k), Mutakddim (12.5k), Holy Bull (15k), Slew City Slew (6k), Victory Gallop (10k), Belong to Me (12.5k), Honour and Glory (12.5k), Out of Place (7.5k), Gilded Time (10k), Sky Classic (12.5), Petionville (15k), etc.

At 15k, Northern Afleet is overpriced. He's riding the coattails of one horse. If you take Afleet Alex out of the picture, he'd be a 5k stallion in Florida.

He's quite the gamble at 15k and holds very little commercial appeal to give you a way out.

[Sysonby]

I thought it was interesting that there were 6 Northern Afleet foals entered in the recent Barretts October sale. Only three of them were run through the ring (an RNA and 2 pretty low price sales) and honestly when the book came out, I wondered if someone was testing the waters out here for his babies. He's got to be on the bubble for Kentucky with his record.

[Rokeby Forever]

Too many people rely on track performance of the stallion as an indicator of breeding potential

How can you still say that in 2007? How many stallions out there have won three Grade 1s? There are roughly 3,500 stallions in the book - name me 20 without scratching your head.

[bcassidy]

Rokeby---why is 3 Gr 1s a magic number? How many potential stallions even get a shot to breed without winning at least one Gr 1 race. I can't believe you think racing performance is not a key factor in whether a stallion gets a great chance in the breeding shed---I would say, the better his on track success and the better his connections, the better his chance gets. Unfortunately I still don't think they are as linked as most people like to think.

[Rokeby Forever]

Track performance is not linked to breeding shed success, or even people willing to look at or support a stallion.

I think Real Quiet is a perfect example of that. Here's a horse that was a nose away from winning the TC and KY dropped him like a hot potato. Silver Charm came within a neck of the TC and was sent to Japan. Charismatic was also sent to Japan. Invasor might be the best racehorse of the last 15 or 20 years - do you think his shed will be SRO by outside breeders? How about Skip Away? Tiznow? Any $50,000 stallions in the bunch?

I said 3 Grade 1s because it's now a big deal to call a sire a "Dual Grade 1 winner." It's a joke, Bcassidy - now, a horse like Political Force wins an AWFUL Grade 1 and it makes him a ready made sire at Claiborne. Storm Cat won only one Grade 1 and he's been the dominant sales sire for 10 years. Chapel Royal won only a Grade II and got 200 mares last year. Sky Mesa won only the Hopeful and his first crop sold like crazy - Vindication ran only 4 times and people are going nuts over his foals. A horse doesn't have to do much today to get himself 100 mares.

[madelyn]

Real Quiet is a perfect example of how a horse can run through awful conformation and still win.