Pedigree Query

http://www.drf.com/news/article/80113.html

He'll be at Walmac for $17,500. Thoughts?

hello Heidilady

First thought is that the stock in Fusaichi Pegasus' only two G1 winning sons is dropping fast.

Second thought is...why shouldn't it?

First it was Roman Ruler at $30,000...

...now it's Bandini announced for 2007 at $17,500.

Seems like (in the words of BB King)...the thrill is gone.

Respectfully

Too High.

What about
Ghostzapper for $200,000, Smarty Jones for $100,000, and Hard Rock Ten for $50,000. I would say $17,500 is quite a bargain.

Keith

Keith wrote:What about
Ghostzapper for $200,000, Smarty Jones for $100,000, and Hard Rock Ten for $50,000. I would say $17,500 is quite a bargain.

Keith

It would be if he were GZ, SJ or RHT...

All are unproven as stallions

Ghostzapper-Great pedigree and Great race record ridiculous stud fee

Smarty Jones-Very awesome racehorse $100,000 way over priced for a stallions mare line that is not that strong other than Smarty Jones.

Both by sires who are unproven as sire of sires

Rock Hard Ten-very nice horse but $50,000 for an unproven son of Kris S. who is not setting the world on fire as a sire of sires.

Rock Hard Ten is by Kris S. who has proven not to be a sire of sires

Kris S. like Alydar is a great sire but both have failed as being sire of sires. Arch who contains the bloodlines of Kris S., Danzig, and Alydar on the other hand is doing well as a sire.

I understand Fusaichi Pegasus is overated but he is A Kentucky Derby with a great pedigree. Fusaichi Pegasus is out of a full sister to classic winner Pine Bluff and by the great Mr. Prospector. Bandini's broodmare sire Dixieland Band is one of the best broodmare sires living today. Bandini is from the family of Stormy Atlantic who is doing very well as a sire.

Unproven sires who stand for more than $30,000 gets to be too much of a gamble when you can breed to some very useful proven stallions in that price range. When you start out at $200,000 or $100,000 you have a great shot at declining stud fees over the next couple of years. Dynaformer and El Prado earned their way into the elite group of stallions standing today as did Kris S. and Saint Ballado who were also top notch stallions. Most of the top dollar unproven stallions ride the coat tails of being bred to the best mares in the world. It is the Sport of Kings but to spend a half a million for a horse who can not run or does not make it to the races is far easier to achieve than buying one who can run especially when you are buying horses who have never ran in their life and with the high number of break downs.

Keith

hi Keith

Keith wrote:What about
Ghostzapper for $200,000, Smarty Jones for $100,000, and Hard Rock Ten for $50,000. I would say $17,500 is quite a bargain.

Although initially advertised at $200k...Ghostzapper was reduced to $150,000, during the 2006 season. It was not a discount for some, rather a reduction in the farm price.

As for Bandini at $17,500, I would NOT describe him as a bargain. For starters, I am not willing to accept, much less concede, that his sire Fusaichi Pegasus is a cinch (or even close) to have much success as a sire-of-sires. I have serious doubts now about FuPeg in general...and view him as ridiculously overpriced based on the quality and quantity of opportunity he's received in relation to his accomplishments (or lack thereof) as a sire.

I might describe FuPeg as a floundering sire, and suggest that if Magnier and Tabor believed otherwise and/or viewed their G1 winner Bandini as a special stallion prospect, they would not have distanced themselves from Bandini.

I recall when Coolmore sold their G2 winner Doneraile Court (by Seattle Slew) to Buckpond Farm. Clearly they could have stood DC at their Ashford Stud for their own account (rather than sell him) and likely earn at least as much and probably more than the approx $1.8mil that they sold him for.

That said, I suggest that the fact that Coolmore/Magnier/Tabor decided to distance themselves from Bandini suggests (to me anyway) that (as in the case of Doneraile Court) they are not convinced that the prospects for Bandini's success as a sire outweigh the benefits of turning him into cash and distancing themselves right now.

Coolmore is in the business of promoting and marketing their own stallions and ultimately reaping lots of cash from their efforts. That said, the fact that they've distanced themselves from Bandini speaks volumes (to my way of thinking).

Is it unreasonable to suggest, that based on the huge books that young Ashford stallions seem to receive, that Bandini would likely have had (assuming he was physically up to the task) a book of mares totaling in the vicinity of 200?

Hmmm...Coolmore/Ashford are exceptional marketers and promoters, yet they've decided to send Bandini down the road where an effort to sell LOADS of breeding rights is underway.

What's up?

Respectfully

Wasn't El Prado a Coolmore stallion at one time? Fusaichi Pegasus is way overpriced because there is tons of money invested in him as they paid way too much for him. Remember another Mr. Prospector stallion named Conquistador Cielo who was syndicated for way too much money.

I think Coolmore's biggest concerns about Bandini are his soundness issues he had when running and he is too related to many of the outstanding mares out there today as he is a grandson of Mr. Prospector and is 3x4 Northern Dancer. He also carries the bloodlines of Danzig, Seattle Slew, and Halo which make it difficult to find out crosses. I think that will also be a problem with Bluegrass Cat who is very line bred being 3x4 Northern Dancer and 3x4 Secretariat and whose second dam is by Mr. Prospector and he carries the bloodlines of A.P. Indy and Seattle Slew.

Bandini showed signs of being a very good horse when winning the Bluegrass S. and coming back to set a track record at age four. In comparison to Fusaichi Pegasus I would say Bandini is a bargain.

Look at all the stallions who went to stud early and did not retire sound and still command very high prices on their first couple of years at stud. The market is driven toward highly successful running stallions who are unproven and throw in the factor that some of these stallion did not retire sound makes it more of a gamble. The same goes for gambling on buying horses out of very well bred unproven mares is also a big gamble as far as I am concerned.

People in general do not gamble on breeding to very well bred unraced or unplaced in one start stallions other than someone with a very limited income. I understand some very nice unraced mares are retired early because people can get some of their money back by selling the foals. There are also very well bred good looking mares with very little racing talent that are bred also so they are left unraced. That is why it is such a gamble to buy foals out of these type of mares.

How long can people continue to overpay for what is commercial as we are losing some very important bloodlines because certain bloodlines do not sell in the sales ring. We once overpaid for pedigree and now overpay for conformation.

Breeding to race should be the main basis for breeding to sell. How long can people continue to overpay for horses who do not make it to the races?

Keith

hi Keith

Keith wrote:In comparison to Fusaichi Pegasus I would say Bandini is a bargain.

Isn't it illegal to use the words Fusaichi Pegasus and bargain in the same sentence?

Respectfully

Hi FOS!!

I totally agree and here is my list of overpriced stallions

1. Fusaichi Pegasus
2. Smarty Jones
3. Rock Hard Ten
4. Ghostzapper
5. Mineshaft
6. Empire Maker
7. Elusive Quality
8. War Chant
9. Tiznow

I do like Mineshaft and Empire Maker but I still think $100,000 is still a little steep. What has Elusive Quality and Tiznow done this year? I think Johannesburg and Include may become very successful stallions and are proven in comparison to Rock Hard Ten and Smarty Jones. I would send a mare to Johannesburg or Include before sending a mare to Bandini but I am sure those two stallions will book full if not already.

Keith