Thoughts about Deep Impact - your opinion?

Discussion and analysis of thoroughbred stallions.

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Thoughts about Deep Impact - your opinion?

Postby Rokeby Forever » Thu Dec 28, 2006 2:50 am

Japan already has 45 sons of Sunday Silence at stud in Japan. Where does Deep Impact (with his huge value and syndication) fit into the scheme of things over there? I'm asking because I was under the impression that Japan was looking to recruit speed into their pedigees, but I don't see Deep Impact offering any...and with so much Sunday Silence blood in Japan, what are they looking to breed him to?

Sunday Silence has been a tremendous stallion for Japan, and I have no doubt that his best offspring (like Deep Impact) could compete at a high level anywhere in the world. The US (as far as I know) is devoid of any Sunday Silence blood, so what if Japan put him on a shuttle program - service some mares in Japan and some here? Any thoughts on how well he'd be received here? He's got Northern Dancer 4th generation (through Lyphard), so anything foal doubled up to ND wouldn't be close through Deep Impact (especially doubled up through Lyphard, unless there are Manila mares around). Any thoughts?

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Postby Toccet02 » Thu Dec 28, 2006 8:56 am

Well this makes me wonder....does the US ever buy any stallions from Japan?
Don't we kinda regret letting Sunday Silence get away?
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Postby Rokeby Forever » Thu Dec 28, 2006 12:59 pm

The last Yoshida stallion to stand in the US, as far as I know (please correct me if I'm worng) was Wajima...and he didn't exactly set the world on fire in Kentucky. But, I sure have to agree - we've missed out on Sunday Silence here, even though he was a crooked horse.

Australia might be an interesting move for this horse, don't you think?

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Postby Cryptic Ninja » Thu Dec 28, 2006 9:10 pm

Even though Sunday Silence has many sons in Japan, none of them has
taken his mantle. Dont expect Deep Impact to shuttle anytime soon.

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Postby Pete » Thu Dec 28, 2006 11:38 pm

Hi Rokeby,

The success of a stallion in a particular geographic area isn't always a straight line to success in another.

There are specific and subtle characteristics in broodmare bands in each geographic area that make a particular stallion more likely to succeed or fail there. Genetically these might be considered inbreeding depressions, mild changes that occur to isolated groups but I don’t believe that they are the only reasons. Unlike other domesticated animals, thoroughbred racehorses are bred for characteristics that closely align with nature’s needs such as speed, athleticism and temperament. Nature’s need are based on herd primacy and those individuals that are bred with blood that is being purged will tend towards average.

I regard certain geographic 'herds'; North America, South America, Europe, Japan and Australia. The potential for any particular stallion is generally different when matched with each herd.

Shuttle stallions to Australia have not been (in general) rousing successes. South American sensation Southern Halo, though North American bred, was a shadow of himself in his native land although his best North American sired son, More Than Ready is doing well in NA and in Australia.

Sunday Silence was perfectly suited for the Japan 'herd' as evidenced by his rousing success. The fact that he could sire some world class runners is clear but not an indication that he or his sons could have succeeded even on a diminished level here in North America. His lack of pedigree and conformation did not stop him from being an epochal sire because he was well matched with his ‘herd’ of mares but it’s likely that certain pedigree elements left him better suited for success in Japan.

Candy Stripes’ North American crops had limited success but his several of his South American sired runners proved to be top class when brought North like Invasor, Leroidesanimaux, Lundy's Liability and Different. Clearly a sire that can get horses of the best quality with the right mares.

There is clear evidence of a subtle but salient recognition of blood content as expressed by performance in the thoroughbred. The once powerful Teddy sire line is barely hanging on in North America but more importantly, Teddy blood all but disappeared in many successful sire lines (especially Phalaris) until it began to be reaccepted (beginning with Tom Fool in 1949 and followed by Raise A Native in 1961, the sons of Northern Dancer and finally Mr. Prospector in 1970). The same phenomenon occurred with Hyperion where there were few successful stallions other than in the Nearctic line that carried his blood in North America until recently (after his sire line declined in the 1970s/80s).

The acceptance or intolerance of specific blood as displayed with the purging of Teddy and Hyperion is different in regional herds. Sunday Silence has Hyperion 5x6 through his 2nd dam, Mountain Flower and based on the lack of success of stallions carrying any Hyperion in Phalaris / Turn-To line sires here in North America at the time that he was sent to stud, probably would have prevented him from having the success that he enjoyed in Japan. Southern Halo has a single strain of Hyperion in his 5th generation, apparently still too much for North America (but not South America) while Saint Ballado and Devil’s Bag have a single strain of Hyperion in their 6th generation, just far enough removed to allow them success with the North America herd (mares).

The gradual reacceptance of blood like Teddy and Hyperion is a product of time and diversification. It’s entirely possible that Saint Ballado was a more successful sire than his superior racing full brother Devil’s Bag because he was 8 years younger and the North American herd (mares) were 8 years more accepting of this blood. Northern Dancer is only 2 generations removed from Nearco but is clearly a different sire line because of diversification. The results of sire line diversification can be seen in Fappiano and his line through Unbridled where the best sons at stud have unusual blood (or less proliferated) than other sons of Mr. Prospector like Miswaki, Crafty Prospector and Conquistador Cielo whose male lines are not thriving. Forty Niner and his sons are showing diversification probably through File (by Tom Rolfe).

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Postby Rokeby Forever » Fri Dec 29, 2006 2:06 am

Hi Pete. Austrailia has gone "all out" with attempting to shuttle in Hail To Reason blood through More Than Ready, Red Ransom, and Sunday Silence, and I think that More than Ready is having a bit of success in that country. If anything, I think Deep Impact would have more success than any of those stallions in Australia simply because he was the most accomplished turf horse of this bunch through Hail To Reason. To my knowledge, More Than Ready, Red Ransom, and Sunday Silence didn't even race on the turf.

Caro's success in the USA always fascinated me. His damside was totally European, and yet, he was able to sire top runners on both dirt and turf (Maybe Man o'War blood helped with the dirt influence). I kind of see Deep Impact being a Caro type sire (without Caro strain temperment, mind you). Any thoughts?

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Postby Retrospectiv » Sun Dec 31, 2006 12:01 pm

There have already been several sons of Sunday Silence to stand at stud in the US.

Austinpower whose closely related to Saint Ballado and probably the best bred of the bunch stands in FL. Fusaichi Zenon stands in NM, Sunday Doubt in IND, Eishin Masamune in CO. Silent Name, who's probably been the best runner of this bunch was set to enter stud at Adena Springs this coming season but the decision was made to keep him in training I believe.

As far as Deep Impact goes....I imagine there would be very limited interest in that horse to most North American breeders. Consider his sire was a dirt running champion who couldn't entise people to breed to him. What in the world would typical NA breeders/sellers want with an almost entirely Japanese based distance running grass horse by a banished stallion? It's the exact opposite of what the market is breeding for here (be that right or wrong). From all accounts, he's a very petite horse and he's never run on dirt. Regardless of his accomplishments, I imagine he'd be a bust here. Works fine because he'll never leave Shadai...he's a National Triple Crown winning hero who's from the 2nd to last crop of his sire.
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Postby wallinga » Tue Jan 30, 2007 10:10 pm

A son of Sunday Silence (dance in the dark) sired our melbourne cup winner, Delta Blues. His son Tayasu Tsuioshi has an oaks winner and Sunday Silence himself got an oaks winner, Sunday Joy (whose Sadlers Wells colt topped the Magic Millions earlier this year)

Deep Impact could do exceptionally in Australia, particularly with Danehill mares and his progeny would probably excel over classic distances.

"Shuttling" to the states might be more difficult, as Japan and the US have the same breeding seasons. That's not to say that you couldn't send a few mares to Japan to be served Redoutes Choice style

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Postby geowarrior » Wed Jan 31, 2007 12:24 am

I think that Silent Name is probably our best bet for promoting the Sunday Silence line in this country. My understanding is the same, that he is still in training but will stand at Adena when his career is over. Austinpowers has been promoted by Ellen Parker on her Reines-de-Course site, but so far has not really produced. As far as Deep Impact goes, he is a national hero, as was his sire (and a more harrowing account of a horse's death I never wish to read. I have reflected a great deal on the story of Sunday Silence's death during the last couple of days, as Barbaro finally left us), and I doubt you will ever see him anywhere but Japan. The cultural pressure to keep him there will be overwhelming.

I always like to see Pete's analysis of a situation. And I have a question, Pete, if you have time. What sires tail male to Teddy are left in the U.S.? I haven't noticed one yet, but I'm willing to be educated.

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Postby Rokeby Forever » Wed Jan 31, 2007 12:52 am

Now hold on - if you look at Giant's Causeway, his top 5 performers of 2006 were all bred in Ireland. His best American bred offspring, First Samurai, won only one stake in 2006 - through a DQ - and his second best American offspring, Noble Causeway, ran 3rd in a Grade 3 this year.

Compare First Samurai and Noble Causeway to Sharmadal, Aragorn, My Typhoon, Oonagh MacCool, Naissance Royale, Maids Causeway, More Than Best and Newgrange (in Japan), and the list of others. Based on what I've read about "territory," why breed to Giant's Causeway in this country when his true breeding success is outside of this country?
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Postby Foggytrip » Wed Jan 31, 2007 8:15 am

Maybe we just arent as sharp as South Americans, Aussies, and Euros when it comes to the breeding game.

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Postby George William Smith » Wed Jan 31, 2007 12:33 pm

Positive drug test in the Arc has me scared about how much ability he has was from natural sources [pedigree] so I won't be recommending him any time to my clients until I see he can produce well naturally. :?

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Postby Foggytrip » Wed Jan 31, 2007 2:27 pm

I think its safe to say he was a pretty special horse regardless of his positive in the ARC. Lets not do the horse an injustice because he came back with a postive, that horse was a champion anyway you slice it.

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Postby Rokeby Forever » Wed Jan 31, 2007 2:34 pm

How many new stallions were steroided, given EPO, and the like? If you shun Deep Impact for his infraction, you might as well not breed at all.
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Postby wallinga » Wed Jan 31, 2007 7:25 pm

I don't think it's a case of others getting better results with horses than those in the states, I think certain mare's suit certain sires for certain distances. Woodman has been a complete flop as a sire here in aus (although his sons and daughters are doing quite well) but he was excelling on turf in europe and got the goods with hansel in the states. Aussie mares were perhaps a little course when Woodman was standing, he isn't as refined as Danehill and as a result his stock were a little common (and acted only on soft ground!) But his mares work well with danehill line stallions. So perhaps it's a matter of finding a 'type' of mare to suit Sunday Silence line sires in the states. By rights he should nick well with Mr Prospector line mares, perhaps injecting some stamina. But bold ruler (particularly Slew) line mares might dominate and lesson his impact.

American stud farm owners have the money to compete for these stallions, it's just a matter of finding one willing to take the risk.