hi guys
You might or might not agree, that it takes no genius to recognize which stallion is hot when he is hot hot hot.
On the flip side, selecting a stallion who might or might not be so hot today, but who will be hot hot hot when you're intending to sell (your weanling/yearling or mare in foal) can be a much more difficult task...don't you think?
For example...those who bred to Street Cry and have a yearling to sell this summer/fall, or a weanling or an in foal mare to sell this fall/winter, will likely have an opportunity to benefit GREATLY as a result of the Kentucky Derby win (and maybe more) of 2-yo champion Street Sense (by Street Cry). Certainly the individual and the page will come into play...but arguably MANY intended buyers will likely look at the Street Crys, and many consignors might benefit from the excellent timing.
Of course some (maybe many) might expect that Street Cry is likely to go (and maybe he will) in the same direction, up up up, as Ky Derby winner Smarty Jones' sire Elusive Quality (who started at approx $10k, and is advertised today for $100k), and Ky Derby winner Funny Cide's sire Distorted Humor (who started for approx $12,500 [but you could get to him for less], and is today advertised at $225k)...but...
...for those who might like some perspective...it might be wise to remember Our Emblem, sire of brilliant Ky Derby and Preakness winner War Emblem. Then consider how many breeders sent mares to Our Emblem (the year following War Emblem's classics victories) and went on the hook for $35,000 (plus tax of course), only to have their butts handed to them at the sales (and where are his runners?). OUCH!!!
The list of stallions which hit the skids (not just Our Emblem) or had fee reductions (some quite large) is VERY long. Certainly though, there is an impressive list of stallions who worked their way up the totem pole too, some to rare heights. All of which arguably supports the case that the thoroughbred game can be very tough and often unforgiving...and arguably stallion selection can have an affect on the prospects of reaping financial rewards at the sales.
That said...even if you have a foal/yearling that's by a stallion that's hot hot hot at the time you offer it for sale...if it's not the right kind of individual and/or it doesn't stand up to scrutiny or vet (to the prospective buyers' satisfaction), it might be fair to say that you're likely to be disappointed.
If you're not convinced that it can be challenging to come out on the long end of the stick (at the sales) regardless the sire, you might want to go into the Keeneland Sales archives and digest September yearlings results. I would suggest that might be quite a sobering experience.
Bottom line? It might be wise to consider your pain threshold (in the event things don't go as you'd like) before you sign on the dotted line...then take your best shot and hope that things unfold as if you'd written the script.
Who knows, you could hit one out of the park...hopefully you will. But BEWARE...the odds are likely NOT in your favor that will happen.
Thoughts?
Respectfully
Stallions...the Who'll Be Hot When You Intend To Sell game
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Rokeby Forever
- Darley line
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Hi FOS,
Interesting points!
As far as selling commercially, isn't it a matter of getting a big blimp into the sales ring? As women have told me my whole life....size does matter! Won't buyers still first consider the Unbridled's Songs and Pulpits before they look at a Street Cry? Giacomo didn't exactly do wonders for Holy Bull's sales average.
Ah....the ol' Taylor Made scam with Our Emblem. How nice that people still remember. LOL!
Interesting points!
As far as selling commercially, isn't it a matter of getting a big blimp into the sales ring? As women have told me my whole life....size does matter! Won't buyers still first consider the Unbridled's Songs and Pulpits before they look at a Street Cry? Giacomo didn't exactly do wonders for Holy Bull's sales average.
Ah....the ol' Taylor Made scam with Our Emblem. How nice that people still remember. LOL!
What synthetics are to California racing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU
Rokeby Forever wrote:Hi FOS,
Interesting points!
As far as selling commercially, isn't it a matter of getting a big blimp into the sales ring? As women have told me my whole life....size does matter! Won't buyers still first consider the Unbridled's Songs and Pulpits before they look at a Street Cry? Giacomo didn't exactly do wonders for Holy Bull's sales average.
Ah....the ol' Taylor Made scam with Our Emblem. How nice that people still remember. LOL!
There was nothing young or sexy about Holy Bull when Giacomo won. It would be the same as if Tiago won. Pleasant Tap is respected a breed to race, bread and butter type sire, but even a Derby win by a son wont influence his price and appeal much.
I think with Our Emblem part of the "perception" after War Emblem was his pedigree. How could a son of Mr. Prospector out of one of the great Distaff mares ever, NOT be legit at stud? God forbid people look at the recent past with her other sons, and see that family just doesnt produce top stallions.
Street Cry has been supported very well by a very nice book since day 1, but most his mares wont be able to compete with those of Pulpit and Unbridled's Song. So, yes, he may have some hearty prices in the upcoming sales, but remember this will be the crop that was bred on a bubble year... usually the weakest mares.
Oh, and the women you know havent been lying to you.
Hi FOS,
I've been posting about the importance of 'Projecting stallion value' on this forum for years. Every breeder should project what the value of the stallion that they purchase (a season for) will be when they intend to sell or use the offspring.
Stud fees are set in the present but their real value is revealed in the future. Make a poor choice and you (the breeder) lose, make a good choice and you profit.
Especially on younger sires I keep running valuations that will need to be updated often. A single graded stakes winner can redeem a first year stallion and open the doors to opportunity. A common mistake is to try and book a 'hot' sire just before the fees are announced because the farms usually know what the new fee will be and won't book for less. If you're willing to commit to a stallion early you might be able to 'lock-in' the previous year fee but not all farms will do this and if you're wrong there's little that you can do.
Most stud fees will be set in October and early November prior to the breeding season and (usually) before the huge Keeneland November Sale.
Good post because this is an extremely important exercise that any breeder should participate in and do on their own as well.
Regards,
Pete
I've been posting about the importance of 'Projecting stallion value' on this forum for years. Every breeder should project what the value of the stallion that they purchase (a season for) will be when they intend to sell or use the offspring.
Stud fees are set in the present but their real value is revealed in the future. Make a poor choice and you (the breeder) lose, make a good choice and you profit.
Especially on younger sires I keep running valuations that will need to be updated often. A single graded stakes winner can redeem a first year stallion and open the doors to opportunity. A common mistake is to try and book a 'hot' sire just before the fees are announced because the farms usually know what the new fee will be and won't book for less. If you're willing to commit to a stallion early you might be able to 'lock-in' the previous year fee but not all farms will do this and if you're wrong there's little that you can do.
Most stud fees will be set in October and early November prior to the breeding season and (usually) before the huge Keeneland November Sale.
Good post because this is an extremely important exercise that any breeder should participate in and do on their own as well.
Regards,
Pete
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
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geowarrior
- Leading Sire
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Hi Maven,
Your skirting close to but not directly saying WHY Giacomo didn't boost Holy Bull, or why G1 winners only solidify Pleasant Tap's value and don't increase it.
1 - Their offspring aren't highly valued in the breeding shed.
2 - If they’ve underperformed expectations it's very hard to regain lost market appeal. Once pigeon-holed in the market, that's where you'll 'live'.
Where the stallion stands is very important in understanding their 'shelf life'. Certain farms are able to keep their stallions afloat longer than others. At most small farms the new stallion are usually a hit or miss proposition while some larger farms may have a few years to prove their stallions before they lose all appeal. In November of 1997, there were rumors that Kingmambo would be sold or that his fee would be dramatically dropped when Lemon Drop Kid won the Remsen Stakes (G2) and in Japan, El Condor Pasa became a star. By 2002 Kingmambo’s fee was $200,000 (now $300,000).
Lane’s End has an enviable record for keeping stallions on the ‘barbie’ (hot). Smart Strike, Lemon Drop Kid and Stephen Got Even all flirted with failure. Three Chimneys held fast until Point Given showed some mettle and War Chant, despite a mediocre siring record (I'm being kind) still averaged $100,000 for his yearlings at the Keeneland 2006 September sale.
There’s an element of political connection, if you’re not well liked then your stallions have to roll their rock up a steeper hill. I believe that Darley has lost the promotion ‘war’ to Coolmore in Kentucky and their stallions have to ‘try harder’ like Street Cry. Imagine what Street Cry’s value might be if he stood at Lane’s End or Coolmore?
There’s more to being a commercial darling than sire performance, good looks and pedigree. I try to understand the nuance that helps mold the commercial appeal of a stallion especially where they stand.
Regards,
Pete
Your skirting close to but not directly saying WHY Giacomo didn't boost Holy Bull, or why G1 winners only solidify Pleasant Tap's value and don't increase it.
1 - Their offspring aren't highly valued in the breeding shed.
2 - If they’ve underperformed expectations it's very hard to regain lost market appeal. Once pigeon-holed in the market, that's where you'll 'live'.
Where the stallion stands is very important in understanding their 'shelf life'. Certain farms are able to keep their stallions afloat longer than others. At most small farms the new stallion are usually a hit or miss proposition while some larger farms may have a few years to prove their stallions before they lose all appeal. In November of 1997, there were rumors that Kingmambo would be sold or that his fee would be dramatically dropped when Lemon Drop Kid won the Remsen Stakes (G2) and in Japan, El Condor Pasa became a star. By 2002 Kingmambo’s fee was $200,000 (now $300,000).
Lane’s End has an enviable record for keeping stallions on the ‘barbie’ (hot). Smart Strike, Lemon Drop Kid and Stephen Got Even all flirted with failure. Three Chimneys held fast until Point Given showed some mettle and War Chant, despite a mediocre siring record (I'm being kind) still averaged $100,000 for his yearlings at the Keeneland 2006 September sale.
There’s an element of political connection, if you’re not well liked then your stallions have to roll their rock up a steeper hill. I believe that Darley has lost the promotion ‘war’ to Coolmore in Kentucky and their stallions have to ‘try harder’ like Street Cry. Imagine what Street Cry’s value might be if he stood at Lane’s End or Coolmore?
There’s more to being a commercial darling than sire performance, good looks and pedigree. I try to understand the nuance that helps mold the commercial appeal of a stallion especially where they stand.
Regards,
Pete
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
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Rokeby Forever
- Darley line
- Posts: 6684
- Joined: Thu Dec 21, 2006 4:52 pm
- Location: Reno, NV
Excellent points, Pete....even for a Martian!
All things being equal: Let's say I want to breed a mare to Exchange Rate next year (2008). A post here spoke of a rumor that Exchange Rate might move to Kentucky in the near future...let's assume that his fee increases to $15,000 if he stays in Ocala in 2008, or if he moves, increases to $15,000 in Kentucky.
From a "breeding to sell" standpoint, where am I better off breeding my mare...will the foal have more value if I pay $15,000 in Ocala, or more value if I pay $15,000 in Kentucky? As a Florida Bred, I'm a bigger fish in a smaller pond if I sell at the OBS Select Yearlings....at Keeneland with a KY Bred, I'm another face in a very big crowd.
In terms of "valuation," how do I go about this with a sire that may or may not move?
All things being equal: Let's say I want to breed a mare to Exchange Rate next year (2008). A post here spoke of a rumor that Exchange Rate might move to Kentucky in the near future...let's assume that his fee increases to $15,000 if he stays in Ocala in 2008, or if he moves, increases to $15,000 in Kentucky.
From a "breeding to sell" standpoint, where am I better off breeding my mare...will the foal have more value if I pay $15,000 in Ocala, or more value if I pay $15,000 in Kentucky? As a Florida Bred, I'm a bigger fish in a smaller pond if I sell at the OBS Select Yearlings....at Keeneland with a KY Bred, I'm another face in a very big crowd.
In terms of "valuation," how do I go about this with a sire that may or may not move?
Hi Geo,
You might think that if you felt that Orientate doesn't have much upside potential to promote his commercial appeal.
Each stallion and situation is different. Certain sire lines (and to lesser degree mare families) add to the stallion's potential to succeed. There are many preconceptions that affect the value.
A son of A.P. Indy will, in most cases, be given an extra year to prove themselves.
As a freshman sire in 2006, Yonaguska had a very solid 26% winners from foals (26/100) and $738,000 in progeny earnings but only one restricted SW and 2 other lesser black-type performers. His fifth best winner won @ $40,000. They were, as a group, ordinary and they've done little in 2007 to change that impression. Without a major change of fortunes, The Vinery will be hard pressed to keep him in KY in 2008. Remember too that Yonaguska’s performance affects the other sons of Cherokee Run now at stud, like Kafwain. It’s a bit like bowling pins, once one goes down the others will go down faster.
Regards,
Pete
Ok so if I understand this correctly, I would project that the stallion value of Orientate, considered one of the hot sires last year, will drop by a half within the next three years.
You might think that if you felt that Orientate doesn't have much upside potential to promote his commercial appeal.
Each stallion and situation is different. Certain sire lines (and to lesser degree mare families) add to the stallion's potential to succeed. There are many preconceptions that affect the value.
A son of A.P. Indy will, in most cases, be given an extra year to prove themselves.
As a freshman sire in 2006, Yonaguska had a very solid 26% winners from foals (26/100) and $738,000 in progeny earnings but only one restricted SW and 2 other lesser black-type performers. His fifth best winner won @ $40,000. They were, as a group, ordinary and they've done little in 2007 to change that impression. Without a major change of fortunes, The Vinery will be hard pressed to keep him in KY in 2008. Remember too that Yonaguska’s performance affects the other sons of Cherokee Run now at stud, like Kafwain. It’s a bit like bowling pins, once one goes down the others will go down faster.
Regards,
Pete
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
Hi Rokeby,
KY Charges 6% sales tax on stallion seasons.
If Exchange Rate were to make the move to KY now his fee would depend on whether Padua syndicates him and a little on the exploits of Hard Spun. If Pauda retains sole ownership I'd expect to see him @$20,000 and he's syndicated then @$30,000. This doesn't necessarily reflect his market appeal, rather fees that will allow him to have a good number of mares.
Most foals should be more commercial if their sire stands in KY but where they are foaled in more nebulous and is based more on buyer prejuduces and preconceptions. Some buyers will look at foals from NY as having an advantage to them (State Bred programs) and some will believe that the NY bred isn't as good.
Regards,
Pete[/b][/i]
KY Charges 6% sales tax on stallion seasons.
If Exchange Rate were to make the move to KY now his fee would depend on whether Padua syndicates him and a little on the exploits of Hard Spun. If Pauda retains sole ownership I'd expect to see him @$20,000 and he's syndicated then @$30,000. This doesn't necessarily reflect his market appeal, rather fees that will allow him to have a good number of mares.
Most foals should be more commercial if their sire stands in KY but where they are foaled in more nebulous and is based more on buyer prejuduces and preconceptions. Some buyers will look at foals from NY as having an advantage to them (State Bred programs) and some will believe that the NY bred isn't as good.
Regards,
Pete[/b][/i]
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
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Rokeby Forever
- Darley line
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- Joined: Thu Dec 21, 2006 4:52 pm
- Location: Reno, NV
Hiya Pete,
Thanks for the opine.
Suppose Exchange Rate is syndicated and stands in KY for $30,000. What valuation do I put on him in 2008?
Prior to 2008, Exchange Rate was bred to Florida Breds and had a lot of success. In 2010, I'll be selling a foal from his first crop of KY breds, which should (theoretically) be his strongest crop to date. His foals the year after might be from an even stronger book if he keeps popping up with nice horses from Florida mares in 2007 and 2008.
So, based on this logic, isn't Exchange Rate a good value in 2008 even at $30,000 in Kentucky? I'm assuming his sales averages will continue to increase until then with "Danzig Fever," especially with Hard Spun now in the spotlight and Claiborne doing whatever it can to get War Front off to a good start.
Thanks for the opine.
Suppose Exchange Rate is syndicated and stands in KY for $30,000. What valuation do I put on him in 2008?
Prior to 2008, Exchange Rate was bred to Florida Breds and had a lot of success. In 2010, I'll be selling a foal from his first crop of KY breds, which should (theoretically) be his strongest crop to date. His foals the year after might be from an even stronger book if he keeps popping up with nice horses from Florida mares in 2007 and 2008.
So, based on this logic, isn't Exchange Rate a good value in 2008 even at $30,000 in Kentucky? I'm assuming his sales averages will continue to increase until then with "Danzig Fever," especially with Hard Spun now in the spotlight and Claiborne doing whatever it can to get War Front off to a good start.
I think Exchange Rate has a couple of things going for him that would allow him to continue to build even if he were moved to KY. The Danzig legacy is just one of those. He has four GSW running right now - from a fairly small set of runners. Two of those are G1 and one of them is a current 2yo. The key is that he does have a small set of runners, which is a scenario/book he is apt to encounter in 2011 and beyond if he were to move to KY with a stud fee increase. If he were able to maintain this stakes performer pace, from a continued small book, he would certainly build attention even when moving to the larger pond. I haven't gone back to him, but have a NYbred that sells this August in SAR pref.
Back to the overall topic - picking who is going to be hot 2 years down the road is the fun part of this game. Most of our stallion selections involve new stallions, first because they are the affordable ones, but as importantly, because it is fun to do.
Back to the overall topic - picking who is going to be hot 2 years down the road is the fun part of this game. Most of our stallion selections involve new stallions, first because they are the affordable ones, but as importantly, because it is fun to do.
I think Malibu Moon will be very hot in two years. Before moving to KY, the CI of his Maryland mares that he bred was something like 1.13. It is going to be a lot higher with the crops coming up starting this year as his first crop of KY-breds hits the racetrack. The new mares will help his figures dramatically, and people will start paying attention to how many stakes winners he has already gotten with his MD mares.
Full disclosure: I own a Malibu Moon colt in partnership. But I bought into him because I thought Malibu Moon was going places.
Full disclosure: I own a Malibu Moon colt in partnership. But I bought into him because I thought Malibu Moon was going places.
"When I am on my deathbed, I imagine I will say, 'Thank God I did that'" - Arthur Hancock, on buying back Gato del Sol from Europe after Exceller was killed in a slaughterhouse in Sweden.
Hi Rokeby,
Exchange Rate supports Michael's point about successful Danzig sons racing aptitude.
You need to decide what Exchange Rate's value is. It's not so easy to say that he'll get better mares, ergo I can't lose. The foals from the earlier crops tend to lag in sales prices and there's renewed expectations that mare the sires position tenuous.
You didn't ask the key question - why would he stand for more if he was syndicated!? Think outside the box.
The real question isn't if Exchange Rate will be $20/$30k in 2008, it's what his value will be when you would be using (selling) a foal from a 2008 mating. He would need to continue his success from his Florida crops - is this likely?
Regards,
Pete
Exchange Rate supports Michael's point about successful Danzig sons racing aptitude.
You need to decide what Exchange Rate's value is. It's not so easy to say that he'll get better mares, ergo I can't lose. The foals from the earlier crops tend to lag in sales prices and there's renewed expectations that mare the sires position tenuous.
You didn't ask the key question - why would he stand for more if he was syndicated!? Think outside the box.
The real question isn't if Exchange Rate will be $20/$30k in 2008, it's what his value will be when you would be using (selling) a foal from a 2008 mating. He would need to continue his success from his Florida crops - is this likely?
Regards,
Pete
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
Hi CT,
You are an easy customer to please! I find that stud fees are mercenary and bound to drive breeders out of the business, especially the new stallions. I have to like your attitude
Regards,
Pete
Most of our stallion selections involve new stallions, first because they are the affordable ones
You are an easy customer to please! I find that stud fees are mercenary and bound to drive breeders out of the business, especially the new stallions. I have to like your attitude
Regards,
Pete
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
Hi Majxmom,
I remember when Williamstown was brought to NY and his manager told me that with over 90 foals in his seond crop that he was a no-brainer....sadly he didn't succeed. Sometimes what seems obvious in a stallions direction isn't.
Malibu Moon has done very well. Thanks for the full disclosure and I hope that your colt's a runner.
You may well be right that the better mares and larger books will suit him and he'll really move up but in many ways he's already arrived.
He has 110 and 137 foals ready to hit the track in the next two years and he's held his own through a lean period. His foals have sold well but not spectacularly (he averaged $73k this past September). Sometimes a stallion doesn't improve with huge crops.
The point is, if you were breeding to malibu Moon in 2008, what would his value be in 2010 when you were selling your yearling?
Regards,
Pete
I remember when Williamstown was brought to NY and his manager told me that with over 90 foals in his seond crop that he was a no-brainer....sadly he didn't succeed. Sometimes what seems obvious in a stallions direction isn't.
Malibu Moon has done very well. Thanks for the full disclosure and I hope that your colt's a runner.
You may well be right that the better mares and larger books will suit him and he'll really move up but in many ways he's already arrived.
- Horse Year Bred Reports Foals State Pct
Malibu Moon 2000 101 74 56 MD 55%
Malibu Moon 2001 112 86 67 MD 60%
Malibu Moon 2002 55 42 37 MD 67%
Malibu Moon 2003 76 45 37 MD 49%
Malibu Moon 2004 149 128 110 KY 74%
Malibu Moon 2005 175 155 137 KY 78%
Malibu Moon 2006 156 KY
He has 110 and 137 foals ready to hit the track in the next two years and he's held his own through a lean period. His foals have sold well but not spectacularly (he averaged $73k this past September). Sometimes a stallion doesn't improve with huge crops.
The point is, if you were breeding to malibu Moon in 2008, what would his value be in 2010 when you were selling your yearling?
Regards,
Pete
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms