Halo's Image vs Southern Image

[Rokeby Forever]

This might be an interesting discussion - proven father vs unproven son.

Halo's Image is a stallion I really like. He's a cross of Hail To Reason over Valid Appeal (his dam ran 56 times)...does a pedigree out there offer more soundness? Indeed, he was a sound horse - he raced until he was 6, making 26 starts...pretty impressive for a stallion by today's standards.

His offspring run an average of 16-17 times (or so), so he's passing along that soundness. And, at the $7,500 level, he's a pretty darn good value for racing...his median runner makes over $25,000 and his average earner makes over $54,000. His lifetime AEI is better than his CI, and with mares with a lifetime CI of 1.40, you know he hasn't had much to work with.

He's also not a bad value for breeding to sell, especially being a Hail To Reason line stallion. Lifetime, his average yearling has sold for 4X his $7,500 fee, and his two year olds average $56,000, or more than 7X his $7,500 fee.

His new son, Southern Image is an interesting comparison. His dam was unraced although she was out of a durable Pleasant Colony mare that foaled runners that raced at ages 7 and 8. Southern Image himself raced over three seasons, but raced a total of 8 times in his career - once as a 2 year old, three times as a 3 year old, and 4 times as a 4 year old. He was a classy horse when he showed up on the racetrack...."when" being the operative word.

Southern Image is standing for $15,000, the same fee as a "breed to race" stallion on the same farm that I like, Northern Afleet. Northern Afleet raced 21 times, his progeny get to the races, and he has earnings and median averages not much different than Halo's Image, but here's the downfall - if you're breeding to sell, his yearlings average less than 2X the stud fee and his two year olds average just above 3X the stud fee.

So, from looking at Halo's Image and what the farm standing Southern Image already offers for $15,000, is Southern Image a better value than his sire? If you're looking for a durable horse to race, Southern Image is out of an unraced dam and he ran only 8 times himself. Hmmm..... - if you're looking to breed to sell, it seems that Northern Afleet (from the same farm) doesn't offer much value at the $15,000 level, and to match Halo's Image's (his sire) sales numbers, Southern Image would have to double them, since his fee is double. That would mean:

Average yearling = $60,500
Average 2 year old = $111,700

Possible? I suppose. Realistic? What do you think? If there's a strong syndicate behind this horse, will it supply better mares than for Northern Afleet and perhaps support Southern Image better at the sales? If not, how's that $15,000 fee looking for a "breed to race" stallion that raced only 8 times when you can get to Halo's Image for only $7,500?

[wallinga]

Southern Image is a beautiful robust horse. I have a big rap for him Rok, Hail To Reason over Ribot isn't a kick in the teeth either

[Rokeby Forever]

Quite true, Wallinga....but Dynaformer (Hail To Reason over Ribot) raced 30 times and is out of a mare that won or placed in 10 stakes.

[wallinga]

sadly Dynaformer isn't available in the southern spring at widden stud

[Rokeby Forever]

Even more sad....Dynaformer stood for just $5,000 live foal for his first FIVE seasons before being moved. I guess breeders today prefer horses that run 8 times over three seasons, and farms are more than happy to stand them.

[wallinga]

... and who bottom out at 2000m!

[Rokeby Forever]

Exactly, Wallinga!

[petersd]

I have a Southern Image colt out of my Sir Ivor mare, Capable Miss. Dynamite looking foal, so I guess I'm a little biased. I have high hope for this one.

[Rokeby Forever]

Best of luck with it, Petersd!

[parsixfarms]

Southern Image is standing for $15,000, the same fee as a "breed to race" stallion on the same farm that I like, Northern Afleet. Northern Afleet raced 21 times, his progeny get to the races, and he has earnings and median averages not much different than Halo's Image, but here's the downfall - if you're breeding to sell, his yearlings average less than 2X the stud fee and his two year olds average just above 3X the stud fee.

If you're looking to breed to sell, it seems that Northern Afleet (from the same farm) doesn't offer much value at the $15,000 level.

Maybe I'm biased because I bred a mare to Northern Afleet this year, but I think your analysis of his commercial appeal may be a little off the mark. If you look at his average yearling price in 2005 ($31,638) and 2006 ($34,000), they are over 6X his $5,000 stud fee when he was bred to the mares that produced these foals. It will be interesting to see how his yearlings do this year (2005 was his first year in KY at a $12,500 fee) and next (when he was bred to mares at $20,000). I suspect that, with better mares due to the "Afleet Alex effect," his average yearling price should rise considerably. Whether it will be in his historic 6X stud fee range obviously remains to be seen.

[Rokeby Forever]

Hiya Parsixfarms,

Your argument points out my concern...that at the $5,000 level, Northern Afleet was a good value as "breed to sell," but at the $15,000, it's kind of "iffy." Off the success of Afleet Alex, his fee didn't skyrocket (like Elusive Quality did), so I think there's some conservatism with him being shown. But Northern Afleet is still a stallion I like...hard knockin' horses, ESPECIALLY when he's bred to dams that lack Northern Dancer. (His top earners all lack Northern Dancer on the dam side...interesting, huh?).

[parsixfarms]

Rokeby,

I'm not sure we really disagree on Northern Afleet. My only point was that it was too early to shift him from "breed to sell" to "breed to race," at least not until his first crops of KY-conceived foals begin to sell (which will happen this year). If his yearlings this year produce an average of $75,000, which would be in line with his historical 6X stud fee average, I think we would agree that his foals are fairly marketable, and he would not be placed in he "breed to race" category. Time will tell.

By the way, as I was getting interested in the game, Java Gold was probably my favorite, so I like the moniker.

[Rokeby Forever]

Hiya Parsix,

I'm sure Taylor Made will do their best to make Northern Afleet a "breed to sell" sire...

Java Gold was the best of a super strong crop (Alysheba, Bet Twice, that crowd). Creme Fraische would have NEVER beaten him in the JCGC if he stayed sound.

[parsixfarms]

And Cutlass Reality would have never beaten him if Pat Day wasn't his rider.

[Toccet02]

why did Southern Image race so seldom?