Pedigree Query

got his first winner I think yesterday

was one of my fav race horses of all time. so, so talented. Frankel admitted he babied him a little too much, but the horse had the goods.

anyway, odds that he will be a sucessful stallion?

love that pedigree

Blacksmiths love his foals.

I saw the race and it was a good win by 13 1/2.

is that a misprint? 13? and doesn't a 13 length win count a little more as a "good" win.. I mean you don't see maidens go off and just win by 13 every day. curlin's maiden win was the most impressive I've seen in years and he didn't' win by 13

It's a good start alright

hi bdw0617...hi Rok...hi all

bdw0617 wrote:is that a misprint? 13? and doesn't a 13 length win count a little more as a "good" win.. I mean you don't see maidens go off and just win by 13 every day. curlin's maiden win was the most impressive I've seen in years and he didn't' win by 13

A 13 1/2 length win...first time out anywhere, is worth mention.

I suggest though, for perspective's sake, the following be considered...

1/ The Maiden Special Weight race (that the Empire Maker filly won by 13 1/2 lengths) was at Colonial Downs...not exactly the hotbed of American two-year-old racing.

2/ The purse was $26,500...not exactly the kind of money that would likely attract the big boys/girls.

3/ The favorite (who by the way finished 3rd) was a filly by the name of Onashoestring by Buddha...not exactly a sire that's setting the world (or arguably even a barbecue pit) on fire. Hmmm...Rok.

4/ The filly that finished second (by the name of Heavenly Moon) was by Mojave Moon...not exactly a household name.

Regardless...the Empire Maker filly (named Miss Red Delicious) won by 13 1/2...not exactly chopped liver.

Hey...the filly's connections selected (for whatever reasons) what might be described as a relatively obscure/under-the-radar two-year-old venue, for her first test...and she not only delivered, but also made a statement.

Respectfully

I remember this filly's dam well. She was a very good looking Clever Trick mare that was pretty fast. Big beautiful mare. This is the family of Affirmed.

With all due respect to all:

When I see a two year old win by 13 lengths, I'm not filled with awe - I generally think to myself, "The horse must have beaten crap!"

I don't know why people aren't more impressed with a young horse that wins by a head, a neck, or by even a length. In such a finish, a horse has to show a certain amount of gameness and willingness to win.

As a two year old, Roman Ruler was beating nobodies by wide margins. Officer was beating nobodies by wide margins. What happened when they met some actual competition?

Let's put it into perspective:

In the Whitney, Invasor beat an oncoming Sun King by a neck. "Big Deal!", you thought...but Sun King was barreling down on him down the stretch and he hit a brick wall when he looked Invasor in the eye - to me, that was a dominating performance. On the other hand, Bernardini was running away from inferiors and people thought he was unbeatable. Well, when they met, what happened?

Don't be impressed by these wide margin winners until they're actually tested, no matter at what level.

hi Rok

Rokeby Forever wrote:With all due respect to all:

When I see a two year old win by 13 lengths, I'm not filled with awe - I generally think to myself, "The horse must have beaten crap!"
... ... ...
Don't be impressed by these wide margin winners until they're actually tested, no matter at what level.

Fair enough Rok...but I wouldn't hold it against any horse, at any age, including a MSW first-time-starter two-year-old at Colonial Downs...that draws off and wins by 13 plus lengths.

To this point, arguably she's done all that's been asked of her (and might have delivered more than expected). Hopefully, in time, we'll see what she's got (and is made of) if her connections want to really step up and test the girls that have real credentials.

Who knows...she might have run the race of her life (when she broke her maiden)...on the other hand, maybe the best is yet to come. Let's give her a chance...she's certainly earned it, don't you think?

The fact that she raced at Colonial Downs, for a small purse, versus questionable competition, that was trained by conditioners that rarely compete for the big bucks at major venues...arguably raises more questions than it does supply answers.

Regardless...she won by 13 1/2 in 1:04 2/5...first time out...not all bad.

Best to you.

Respectfully

G'evening, FOS,

Likewise, "fair enough." All I'm saying is: before we "ooh" and "aah" a maiden effort, let's wait until the filly faces something of value before we judge how impressive the win actually was.

She won by 13 1/2 lengths in 1:04 2/5. Assuming the second place filly was asked to run to get second money (in a drive, if you will), she would have run 1:06 2/5 (or slower). That's NOT going to win many MSWs.

Had this filly won by, say, three lengths in the same 1:04 2/5, I might argue that she beat some horses that, at this point, have some ability. But winning by 13 1/2? She beat nothing!

Does she merit following in her next start? Yes! But, would I expect a repeat performance against winners? That remains to be seen.

hi Rok

I hear ya...

Rokeby Forever wrote:Does she (the Empire Maker filly, Miss Red Delicious) merit following in her next start? Yes! But, would I expect a repeat performance against winners? That remains to be seen.

Hey...running against winners is a whole different ball-game.

Best.

Respectfully

That wasn't her first start. She actually ran at Keeneland back on April 13th, finishing last of 7, going 4 1/2. In the Colonial rac, the 2nd place horse, by Mojave Moon, was the first-time starter. The final time, on the dirt, actually was faster than the turf races at the same distance!

You guys are a very tough crowd. The horse broke its maiden in its 2nd race ever. There are plenty of decent horses that did not break its maiden first time out. Especially racing 1st time in April of its 2YO year. Give the horse a break. I say kudos to the owners for finding a soft spot for this filly. Its okay to break your maiden at a track outside of Saratoga, Del Mar and Churchill.

I would assume Empire Maker progeny will be better later on this year and next year as they mature. Not running bunny rabbit races Apri-June.

hi Dormello

Dormello wrote:That wasn't her (the Empire Maker filly's) first start. She actually ran at Keeneland back on April 13th, finishing last of 7, going 4 1/2. In the Colonial rac, the 2nd place horse, by Mojave Moon, was the first-time starter. The final time, on the dirt, actually was faster than the turf races at the same distance!

Thanks for the info.

Noted.

Respectfully

in regards to racing, both sides have a valid point.

my best most profitable racing angle is a horse that had a dog fight for a race wins then moves up in class. if I don't see a clear cut fav in the race, the horse wins more times than not.. at GREAT odds becuase of the class raise.


however, with "easy" wins, you have to look at HOW it is done. for instance curlin was high fiving the crowd while PULLING AWAY from the field, under wrap. that's impressive

at the same time, when STreet sense broke his maiden, I wasn't impressed in the least bit.. I actually thought he got a lucky trip. goes to show what I know

overall it shows talent.

I hate keeleland. Why every poly isn't cushion is beyond me. That astro glass they race on over there