Pedigree Query

I hear Three Chimney's has settled upon his fee - $25k.

Fair price? Worth sending a mare or two? He could be the best son of Danzig at stud in the US today?

Any thoughts?

I have 3 Exchange Rate fillies. One is useless on the track, the other is "ok" and the third hasn't started yet but I think she'll be the best.

I like him and was happily surprised to see him succeed as much as he has. BUT, from following them closely having been so invested in him, I'm starting to see a trend of one or two big races in them, and then they just tail off.

25k is probably a fair price but I'll have to look at his sales numbers. He should make a good broodmare sire though with those bloodlines and family, and I certainly haven't been shying away from his daughters.

Would you go to Langfuhr or Exchange Rate at the same fee?

IMHO, for breed to race, Langfuhr. For breed to sell, Exchange Rate. But you better have a $75-100K mare.

The Exchange Rates are more attractive horses but if I was breeding to race, I would look at the cross closely. I'm not sure Exchange rate is a more consistent sire than Langfuhr.

I should also mention I tend to lean toward stallions who have an "open" pedigree when I breed to race so I can better utilize a filly if I were to get one. Langfuhr is much more open than Exchange Rate on pedigree.

But again, I like them both enough to look at the cross individually for a breed to race. A sales horse, no brainer, Exchange Rate.

As far as breed to race, Exchange Rate generallys seems to have the statistical edge, but Langfuhr gives you the better shot at the "home run". Exchange rate has a tremendous AEI vs. CI rate, like 2.3 vs. 1.3 or close to that, Langfuhr's has a ratio just above 1 (still very good).

Langfuhr has already proven in 7 crops to be able to get a "big" horse siring 5 millionaires so far (more than Grand Slam, Maria's Mon or Mr. Greeley). While younger, Exchange rate has similar % stakes horses, but a much higher 2 year old win % rate. They have similar average and median earnings per starter.

A lot to like about each of these sires.

I like Exchange Rate. I have seen some at the sales I like but have not been impressed with their sales prices. Last year and even this year they have averaged less than 30K. I am thinking about breeding a mare to him that has been accepted but his sales figures could be much better. I would have thought the racing success that triggered the move from Florida to Kentucky would have improved his sales figures but I have not seen much evidence of that so far. $45K average at Keeneland at $25K stud fee does not make it easy for profit. I know he will get better mares in theory but you better have a strong mare to make the numbers work in breeding to sale. JT