It's never too early to talk about War Pass

Discussion and analysis of thoroughbred stallions.

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Tappiano
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It's never too early to talk about War Pass

Postby Tappiano » Fri Nov 16, 2007 11:26 am

Stud deal set, he goes to Lane's End "at the conclusion of his racing career.

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Postby bdw0617 » Fri Nov 16, 2007 2:59 pm

I've always liked him as a horse. I really like him as a stud prospect. He's very quick and quick horses seem to make better stallions, he can get a route of ground (so far), I don't know what his confirmation looks like, his damsire is mr. p, he's from the same female family as aptitpute and slew o gold and he's a half to a graded stakes winner.

I just hope they don't get too outragous iwth the stud fee... I think you can expect 40k, he won't be (I don't think) higher than his own sire.

at 40k, unless his legs are throwing gang signs, I don't see how you can go wrong here.
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Postby Rokeby Forever » Fri Nov 16, 2007 4:05 pm

I've been wrong before, but War Pass says "Miler" to me. I think Farish rushed to judgment with this horse only because the Sheikh is buying everything in sight.
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Postby Mahubah » Fri Nov 16, 2007 4:17 pm

My guess is 8-9 furlongs will be his best distance, which is fine from the point of view of those desiring a commercial stallion prospect. Nice colt, lots of speed, not fussy about footing, nice pedigree -- all good. My only concern here is that with the breeding deal sewn up, all it'll take is a pimple on this guy and he'll be off to stud. I'm hoping he lasts long enough to demonstrate how far he really does stay and whether he's really that much above the others of his year or if he's just a quick maturer whose edge will vanish as the other boys catch up.
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Postby bdw0617 » Fri Nov 16, 2007 4:19 pm

Rokeby Forever wrote:I've been wrong before, but War Pass says "Miler" to me. I think Farish rushed to judgment with this horse only because the Sheikh is buying everything in sight.


he does to me too, but you know better than most that milers make the best stallions


Neraco was born when Tesio took the speedy miler Pharos and bred him to the plodder extrodinare Nogara. storm cat, Mr. P, cozenne and even NOrthern dancer's most effective distances were around a mile.
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Postby bdw0617 » Fri Nov 16, 2007 4:21 pm

Mahubah wrote:My guess is 8-9 furlongs will be his best distance, which is fine from the point of view of those desiring a commercial stallion prospect. Nice colt, lots of speed, not fussy about footing, nice pedigree -- all good. My only concern here is that with the breeding deal sewn up, all it'll take is a pimple on this guy and he'll be off to stud. I'm hoping he lasts long enough to demonstrate how far he really does stay and whether he's really that much above the others of his year or if he's just a quick maturer whose edge will vanish as the other boys catch up.


I don't think he makes it to the derby
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Postby geowarrior » Fri Nov 16, 2007 4:37 pm

I'm not sold on him as a Derby prospect either. I didn't get to see Maimonides or Majestic Warrior, but I do like the looks of Pyro.

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Postby Rokeby Forever » Fri Nov 16, 2007 4:46 pm

bdw0617 wrote:he does to me too, but you know better than most that milers make the best stallions

Old wives tale. AP Indy was no miler. Street Cry was no miler. Dynaformer was no miler. Your beloved Pleasant Tap won the JCGC and was 2nd in the BC Classic. Take a look at the last 25 Met Mile winners and tell me how many were successful stallions. How about:

Exciting Story
Yankee Victor
Wild Rush
Honour & Glory
Ibero
Dixie Brass
Criminal Type
Proper Reality
Garthorn
Star Choice
Conquistador Cielo

I could go on and on....but you get the point.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU

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Postby bdw0617 » Fri Nov 16, 2007 4:58 pm

Rokeby Forever wrote:
bdw0617 wrote:he does to me too, but you know better than most that milers make the best stallions

Old wives tale. AP Indy was no miler. Street Cry was no miler. Dynaformer was no miler. Your beloved Pleasant Tap won the JCGC and was 2nd in the BC Classic. Take a look at the last 25 Met Mile winners and tell me how many were successful stallions. How about:

Exciting Story
Yankee Victor
Wild Rush
Honour & Glory
Ibero
Dixie Brass
Criminal Type
Proper Reality
Garthorn
Star Choice
Conquistador Cielo

I could go on and on....but you get the point.


You are twisting my words. Id idn't say the sole requirement for you to be a successful stud is to be a championesque miler. However what I am saying is that being a miler has not stoped stallions from throwing horses that can get a classic distance. Even look at Roberto and Halo, both of them were milers and s unday Silence can run all damn day.
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Postby Rokeby Forever » Fri Nov 16, 2007 5:19 pm

bdw0617 wrote:You are twisting my words. Id idn't say the sole requirement for you to be a successful stud is to be a championesque miler. However what I am saying is that being a miler has not stoped stallions from throwing horses that can get a classic distance. Even look at Roberto and Halo, both of them were milers and s unday Silence can run all damn day.

Ok, you've now qualified your statement. I didn't twist any words in the prior post.

Actually, Halo wasn't a miler - he won the Lawrence Realization and the UN Handicap. Mr Miller never spoke of him as being a miler. But I think it's important to note that both Roberto and Halo are Hail To Reason - God's gift to breeding. HTR was a very fast (and overraced) two year old and his sons could do anything and sire anything. Halo sired Devil's Bag, one of the most talented two year olds in the last 30 years, and Sunday Silence, one of the best two turn horses in the last 30 years. Roberto could sire horses that could run all day, but he also sired Red Ransom, who was as fast as any two year old that ever raced.

Unfortunately, HTR in a stallion line is Leprocy to the commercial world.
What synthetics are to California racing:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU

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Postby Mahubah » Fri Nov 16, 2007 5:22 pm

bdw0617 wrote:Neraco was born when Tesio took the speedy miler Pharos and bred him to the plodder extrodinare Nogara. storm cat, Mr. P, cozenne and even NOrthern dancer's most effective distances were around a mile.


Nogara a "plodder extraordinaire?" She was a champion juvenile in Italy and won the Italian equivalents to the 1000 Guineas and 2000 Guineas the following season. Some plodder -- matter of fact, Tesio had originally intended to mate her to Pharos' full brother Fairway (a St. Leger winner and 4-time leading sire in England) but failed to submit Nogara's nomination before Fairway's book filled; he used Pharos as a second choice.

Far as "milers making the best sires," that's a bit of an overgeneralization. Plodders generally make poor ones, though -- a staying horse needs to have a good turn of foot. It isn't a hard and fast rule, but generally good ten-furlong & up horses haven't done well as sires in the U.S. unless they had the foot to win in graded-class company at a mile or less. A.P. Indy was better at longer distances but did win the San Rafael (G2) at a flat mile, and Pleasant Tap, while better at 9-10 furlongs, not only won the Malibu Stakes (G2) over seven furlongs but ran second in the BC Sprint at six furlongs. As for Street Cry, he lost the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity (G2) by a head to Flame Thrower, so while he wasn't a miler, he was not devoid of speed.

Bull Hancock's favorite type of stallion prospect was the horse who had miler speed but could carry it ten furlongs or so in good company. Hard to argue with his judgment given Claiborne's incredible success as a stallion station during his watch.

Most of the recent Met Mile winners haven't been much to shout about as sires, but Conqustador Cielo had a solid record (especially considering that he wasn't from that strong an immediate family) and hasn't done that badly as a broodmare sire either.
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Postby bdw0617 » Fri Nov 16, 2007 5:31 pm

Mahubah wrote:
bdw0617 wrote:Neraco was born when Tesio took the speedy miler Pharos and bred him to the plodder extrodinare Nogara. storm cat, Mr. P, cozenne and even NOrthern dancer's most effective distances were around a mile.


Nogara a "plodder extraordinaire?" She was a champion juvenile in Italy and won the Italian equivalents to the 1000 Guineas and 2000 Guineas the following season. Some plodder -- matter of fact, Tesio had originally intended to mate her to Pharos' full brother Fairway (a St. Leger winner and 4-time leading sire in England) but failed to submit Nogara's nomination before Fairway's book filled; he used Pharos as a second choice.

Far as "milers making the best sires," that's a bit of an overgeneralization. Plodders generally make poor ones, though -- a staying horse needs to have a good turn of foot. It isn't a hard and fast rule, but generally good ten-furlong & up horses haven't done well as sires in the U.S. unless they had the foot to win in graded-class company at a mile or less. A.P. Indy was better at longer distances but did win the San Rafael (G2) at a flat mile, and Pleasant Tap, while better at 9-10 furlongs, not only won the Malibu Stakes (G2) over seven furlongs but ran second in the BC Sprint at six furlongs. As for Street Cry, he lost the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity (G2) by a head to Flame Thrower, so while he wasn't a miler, he was not devoid of speed.

Bull Hancock's favorite type of stallion prospect was the horse who had miler speed but could carry it ten furlongs or so in good company. Hard to argue with his judgment given Claiborne's incredible success as a stallion station during his watch.

Most of the recent Met Mile winners haven't been much to shout about as sires, but Conqustador Cielo had a solid record (especially considering that he wasn't from that strong an immediate family) and hasn't done that badly as a broodmare sire either.



strike that post. you are 100% correct. I got Nogara mixed up with Pharos and Stallway's dam, who won all of her races over 12 furlongs


Nogara a "plodder extraordinaire?" She was a champion juvenile in Italy and won the Italian equivalents to the 1000 Guineas and 2000 Guineas the following season. Some plodder -- matter of fact, Tesio had originally intended to mate her to Pharos' full brother Fairway (a St. Leger winner and 4-time leading sire in England) but failed to submit Nogara's nomination before Fairway's book filled; he used Pharos as a second choice.


I'm well aware, I was going ot make a post about Neraco about 2 weeks ago, he is one of the more interesting horses in horse racing history


Bull Hancock's favorite type of stallion prospect was the horse who had miler speed but could carry it ten furlongs or so in good company. Hard to argue with his judgment given Claiborne's incredible success as a stallion station during his watch.


that is pretty much what it is today if you ask me. However you have to define carry. does Stormello carry his speed? What about T'Berg? I love lion heart as a stallion prosepct because of this reason
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Postby pokeyman » Fri Nov 16, 2007 5:37 pm

I remember when all the experts said that Funny Cide wouldn't win the Kentucky derby based on Distorted Humor not being a stamina influence and a miler. How did that work out for him? :shock:

Plus, these horses don't just suddenly just pop out of the sire. There is this little piece of genetics involved called a mare!!! And guess what...there is more to a mare than the broodmare sire!! :twisted:

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Postby bdw0617 » Fri Nov 16, 2007 5:42 pm

MORE THAN JUST A BROOMARESIRE? BRILLIANT!!!!

war pass has some stanima in his pedigree, enough of it to where he can get any reasonable distance. I don't think he will make the derby not because of talent, but becuase the first nick he gets Lane's end is going to shut him down
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Postby Mahubah » Fri Nov 16, 2007 6:35 pm

War Pass does have stamina sources in his pedigree; my question is how much has carried forward. Basically, I see him as a possibility to get ten furlongs but a stronger probability to be at his best at somewhat shorter distances.

By "carrying" speed, I mean the ability to stay a longer trip than a mile at an honest pace, not simply being able to steal off to a long lead as the only speed and then hang on. *Nasrullah won the Champion Stakes (10F); *Forli won the 2500-meter Gran Premio Nacional (Argentine Derby); Bold Ruler won the Trenton Handicap and Suburban Handicap at 10F; Round Table was a good juvenile but much better later and probably at his best at a mile and a quarter; Sir Ivor won the Derby Stakes; *Ambiorix placed in the Prix du Jockey Club at 2400 meters, and so on. All of these horses possessed high ability at a mile or less but could go longer distances in good company.
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