I found a new website that you'll find interesting

[winds]

http://www.thoroughbredreview.com/

This is the link. It's for a company advocating all the same things I've been saying for years. I think you'll all find the articles very interesting.

It's not a commentary board like this one.

winds

[bdw0617]

great minds think alike, as we posted the exact same site wtihin seconds of each toher lol


I just got done reading this article, and it basically summed up in a nutshell what is going on

http://www.thoroughbredreview.com/Effec ... Market.htm

irst and perhaps most importantly, a lucrative commercial market inverts the standard relationship between wholesale and retail value. In traditional economics, the retail market environment sets prices for

wholesalers. Wholesalers are rewarded only when the retail market is healthy enough to absorb higher costs of acquisition.

But in the thoroughbred industry, wholesalers (commercial breeders) are selling yearlings with an average rate of return of 26% after all expenses are accounted for. The retailers (owners) are collectively racing for less than half of the money they originally invest each year. Not that a stagnant commercial market would bridge that gap completely, but it would certainly allow owners greater opportunities to realize occasional profits at the racetrack.

basically the tail wagging the dog.

The difference between say, computers and horses are when I am building a computer, I look at what I can sell it for, then look for parts that I can buy, put together and still make a profit off of given the data I have in front of me.

with horse racing, people aren't selling horses, they are selling hopes and dreams. how else can you explain Elusive Quality for 75k? you can HOPE you can get another smarty jones, but the numbers don't back it up.

A more financially prudent way to price a horse is not by Auction sales, but by RACING results. I keep going back to Team Valor buying that 2.2 million dollar 2YOIT earlier this year. I don't care what he looks like, in 10 years Mr. Greeley has sired 1 millionare. 1. and that's if she has hit a million yet. I can't think of veyr many mr. greeley sons up the stud farm either. 2.2 million is laughable.

Wholesale and retail prices aren’t the only components being inverted under a lucrative commercial market. Stud fees for proven vs. unproven commodities also seem to conflict with more conventional economic models. Older, more established sires get squeezed at the marketplace in favor of unproven sires who have no sire credentials, but effectively stir the emotions of buyers and advisors who adhere to the ‘what may be’ psychology, as opposed to ‘what is’. Back in the 1990’s, breeders lined up in droves to breed to European Horse of the Year and impeccably-bred sprinter Dayjur. Not only did they pay a stud fee well in excess of what others were paying for older, proven sires like Silver Ghost, but yearling buyers and their advisors were paying in the low to mid six figures for his yearlings. Dayjur’s failure best illustrates the potential pitfall of the ‘what may be’ psychology.

curlin is worth 70 million people need to look no father than Dayjur

Others argue that the biggest problem imposed by the success of the commercial market is the manner in which it bleeds the racing industry of its superstars. The list is long and distinguished in recent years of potential fan-building superstars that have been whisked off the track in favor of the lucrative commercial market. Bernardini, Mineshaft, Ghostzapper, Empire Maker… not to mention all of the Grade 1-caliber fillies that were just beginning to build fan bases before the commercial dollars began calling out their name. Outside of the rare owner who possesses that unique sportsman personality, most owners succumb to lucrative offers from breeding syndicates and rob the industry of developing superstars.

50k is the absolute most I could see paying for an unproven stallion. and at 50k I would have to literalry have a horse crush on the horse like I do with corinthian. anything else is basically playing the lottery. if you had the Street cry bedazzle exacta you won 50 million dollars!

ifferent types of individuals will undoubtedly find varying levels of success under certain market conditions, and no where is this more true than in the thoroughbred industry. As the price for the average yearling rises, it takes an increasingly sales savvy consultant and/or trainer to encourage investment from the owner. D. Wayne Lukas mastered this skill in the early 1980’s and passed it along to several of his protégés who dominate the upper levels of buying in the United States. Trainers better known for their horsemanship than their salesmanship begin to suffer, and those trainers with the power of persuasion start ascending to the upper levels of the game.d

This dynamic then starts feeding into the problems surrounding durability. As these persuasive trainers begin to build large stables, they quickly evolve into program-driven machines where a particular horse must sink or swim. These trainers have what seems to be an inexhaustible supply of horse flesh to search through for the next allowance or stakes-caliber runner. Catering to the needs of horses who appear to be marginally talented becomes a waste of time and more importantly, stall space.

cough todd pletcher cough

Commercial success also has a tendency to influence the science, or at least the interpretation of science within the industry. If a particular fad seems to be contributing to higher prices, it is usually perpetuated further, regardless of its scientific or statistical validity. The best example is the current cataloguing standards and it’s focus on the female family. John Gaines, founder of Gainesway Farm and the Breeder’s Cup, said it best: “The mythology surrounding the breeding of thoroughbreds is pervasive. A few of these myths are the astonishing stupidity of the dosage system, the absurd overemphasis on the female family, and the irrational belief in the validity of nicks”.

Yes, it worked for Tesio and some of the other great breeders in the history of horse racing but it is a sham... so what we should all do is just write a nice tiddy 6 figure check, make sure it's made out to Mr. John Gaines (don't forget the e) AT Gainsway Farm, and all is well.. sure


every sit down to think that part of the reason so much is spent on nicks, female families is people, your own customers are trying to get a leg up on the game that YOU have a great deal in throwing out of wack with these insane stud prices? at one point you had 40 stallions going! Mr. Greed if there ever was one.[/quote]

[Rokeby Forever]

I like the things that the site writes - it's a "no spin zone."

[Worksoplad]

This is by no means a "New" website. It's been around for two years. It's one person's opinion that is really about worth the ether space it's written in.

[winds]

Well, it's a new website to me. I just found it recently. I'm sorry you don't agree with what he says, I do.

winds

[Rokeby Forever]

It's one person's opinion that is really about worth the ether space it's written in.

Mr. Greeley ($125,000 Gainesway Farm, KY) - This guy is all smoke and mirrors, and buyers are falling for it in a big way. Drags his mares down and his progeny average just $4,212 per start. Most alarming, he's only getting 6.5% stakes winners from starters, a figure well below many sires in the $15,000 price range. End users need to take a hard look at his overall numbers before investing so heavily in an over-hyped sire.

Is it opinion or a conclusion based on facts?

[KAL]

Hmmm... slight correction... John Gaines hasn't owned Gainesway for quite some time. That would be one Mr. Graham Beck.

By the way, the farm is amazing... simply amazing, especially when taken in context of history. It and Elmendorf...

Actually, if one would take some time to study Gaines complete points about dosage, female family, and nicks, the man made a great deal of sense.

[Jane]

Every now and again I check to see what this guy is saying, more often than not I find he has some valid points, it is a site I consider useful.

[zinn21]

I have used his services. Like most of us he has opinions based on analysis and he states it bluntly. Based on what I've seen so far I don't believe he's found the Racing Game's Holy Grail but he's working at it.

[Bill from WA]

Hi

The opinions posted on this website are based primarily on the opinions expounded by the late Joe Estes. I agree with some of the viewpoints, but have problems with some of his other statements, namely the role of female inheritance, and have to respectfully disagree on that point. That's what makes this game so very interesting...so many differing ways of looking at the same subject.

Joe Estes quote:

“Bruce Lowe’s theory that certain hereditary excellencies and deficiencies descended in unimpaired vigor through many generations of females was one of the most absurd notions ever thrust into the welcoming arms of thoroughbred breeders.”

Recent scientific research:

Abstract
The mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) molecule (passed only through the female), carrying genes encoding for respiratory chain enzymes, is a primary candidate for demonstrating associations between genotype and athletic performance in mammalian species. In humans, variation at seven protein encoding mitochondrial loci has been implicated in influencing fitness and performance characteristics. Although thoroughbred horses are selected for racing ability, there have not been any previous reported associations between genotypes and racecourse performance. The multi-factorial nature of the inheritance of racing ability is an obvious complicating factor. However, mitochondrial gene variation may represent a measurable component contributing to performance variability. Previous population studies of thoroughbreds have shown the existence of D-loop variation. Importantly, we have observed that there is also independent and extensive functional mitochondrial gene variation in the current thoroughbred racehorse population and that significant associations exist between mtDNA haplotype, as defined by functional genes, and aspects of racing performance.

q 2006 Elsevier B.V. and Mitochondria Research Society. All rights reserved.

Bill

[bdw0617]

the more I learn about breeding the more I see that his viewpoints on female familes and mine arent' THAT different. they are different but not by much.

[Ill-bred]

I wonder who's using mtDNA analysis in the Thoroughbred world and what they've figured out.

Could be a pandora's box situation if it works.

[Ill-bred]

the more I learn about breeding the more I see that his viewpoints on female familes and mine arent' THAT different. they are different but not by much.

The idea that genetic material could be carried through a female family from generation to generation is proven. mtDNA is passed on through females with very little mutation.

mtDNA's effect on racing aptitude is the question.

[ZZTOPPERS]

I hate it when a website clouds the issue with facts! This site does present some stats that make you say Huh? But the bloodstock analysts, trainers and money people still go after the big names at the sales, facts be darned!

[bdw0617]

the more I learn about breeding the more I see that his viewpoints on female familes and mine arent' THAT different. they are different but not by much.

The idea that genetic material could be carried through a female family from generation to generation is proven. mtDNA is passed on through females with very little mutation.

mtDNA's effect on racing aptitude is the question.

you are missing hte point. I didn't say it didn't... of course I am sure there are traces of mtDNA of my great ansestors in my blood, i'm positive of it. But everything at an end of the day comes to a head with my mother and my father. I'm not stocky because of my great great great grandfather, my father is built like me. I have his hands, I have my mothers complextion and face, i get my athletic ablilities from my dad (which is a good thing), my mind from my mother.

point is, i can write out a list of 100 traits and I'm sure about 90% of them I get from either or, and a couple from the enviroments (which is something that NEVER gets talk about here)

in ohter words, at times, like he said, you have to draw the line between what's USEFUL and what's too my information to where it's a hobby.

Take Rags to Riches. I don't need a 10 page pedigree report to see that if you take better than honor and bred her to AP Indy you can have a damn good horse on your hands.


the most important thing I believe is, and this is to me paramount, is that your female back class doesn't guarantee the mare that she actually passes thoose desired genes on. Look at curlin's family and how it took a downhill slide to hell at about curlin's 3rd dam. was actually a very productve family up into then... that damn for whatever the reason may be d id not pass on genes.

Being able to run is one thing. Being able to pass on the ability to run is another. It's not always that cut and dry so spare me, but that's the just of it.

I think the best way to look at a mare is to not look at the dam's SW foals, but to look at the mare's siblings to see if any of them do a good/decent job of throwing runnres. that's why I'm so high on sun king. they bred that damily from everything to sadlers wells to well..lol, charasmatic, and get runnders regardless. his own sisters producing million dollar RACE HORSES, NOT SALES.


anyway, that's my theory, and i'm still working on it, but to me it makes the most sense. Just because I am smart doesn't guarantee you taht my kids are going to be smart or that they will have smart kids either.. what matters is my ability to pass on the gene that lets's my kids pass on the smart gene, if that makes sense.

I hate it when a website clouds the issue with facts! This site does present some stats that make you say Huh? But the bloodstock analysts, trainers and money people still go after the big names at the sales, facts be darned!

if you really think about it, and I was thiniing about this as I was lying down to go to sleep last night (pitiful I know), there are three subindustires in the entire industry.. the breeders, the stallion farms and the racing industry. Now, within thoose three industires there are even more subindustires, i.e pinhookers with farms/selling, track owners wtih racing, but when you break it down..

ONLY ONE OF THE 3 SUBINITIES IS MAKING A SERIOUS IF ANY PROFIT.

that of course being the stallion farms. It'sw hy they run the entire chain, because they are the ones calling the shots. tracks can't offer more money for races because it has no more money. Breeders have to basically take what's there in front of them.

so the question I ask is, one isnt' supposed to be bigger than 2. if you have two subindustires struggling inside of a 3 pronged industry, something has to give.

My conclusion is that stallion farms do a better job of marketing than race tracks and breeders combined, x 3. go to bloodhorse.com right now and i guarantee you there is some banner of an overpriced stud on the top of the page, showing it's skwed stats and inflated price and let you put the dream together that you can get "that" or get "in" on the action.

See stud farms dont' sell horses as much as they sell hopes. they go after uppermiddle class/wealthy people who have excess money to spend and want to be on center stage on derby day. they charge what they charge not because that's what it's worth, but becuase they can.

let me show you something...


and i'm not saying it's right, or wrong, I'm just saying it is what it is.


smart strike (and I love me some smart strike) runners avg'd $68k this year. his stud fee going into next year is $150000


AP indy 54k, stud fee $300k

Distored Humor= $37k stud fee $300k


let's get to more of the bred to race horses:

tiznow is right at where his stud fee is per foal, but you haven't factored in one additional cost yet

real quiet's fee is $10k, his avg runner avg'd $30k, but you take midnighte lute and pussycat doll out..

see where I'm going? how can you make a profit when your wholesale price (the breeding) costs more than the retail value (the horses actual racing career)

something has to change. it has to. the tail cannot wag the dog. Now granted, let's say I have a little money in the bank and I really like Smart Strike and I have a stakes placing mare ith some speed, and I want to bred her to him..t hat's my decision. but that would be for me and i'm doing it for pure sport. what about the commrecial breeders who live like this and have to see at least $250k at the sales for it to be meaningful then the poor owner who needs to damn near break half a million dollars to see a profit!