Vindication

[Tesio]

I expected big things from him at stud. He had numerous impressive winners this summer getting off to a nice start. What's puzzling to me: what happened to these horses? Baffert's More Happy won a nice stake at Saratoga. Bobblehead's Maimonides was ultra impressive there as well. Stan Hough's colt Sargent Seattle ran huge in his first race. There are numerous others.

I know Maimonides is back in training but it concerns me that Vindication's offspring might be similarly fragile like the old man. I sold a weanling by him well last year and went back to him this past spring. Is there much buzz about his horses being unsound?

[bdw0617]

I think for the for the most part the jury is out. what you just said you could substitute 95% of all stallions in the US as far as fast 2YO's go and it would be the same sentence and be true. Whenever you rush 2YO's to the races while they are still developing, they are prone to have injuries and layoffs.

I waiting to next year's crop of 2YO's hits to judge him... all of his GOOD horses I can think off came off the back of VERY strong mares...

Maimonides is half to two stallions, more happy is out of a champion sprinter, sargent seattle is out of a multiple graded stakes placed filly that earned 400k.

I have nothing positive or negative to say about him as of yet.

[Rokeby Forever]

His first crop numbers aren't all that great.

He had 119 foals in his first crop and only 19 winners. 16% winners just isn't a real impressive number for what was expected of Vindication.

But those 16 winners might be good, you argue? He's got only ONE stake winner. ONE! What's up with the others?

Now, for those of you that would like to argue that maybe his first crop book wasn't strong - it's got a 3.74 AEI. That's one of the strongest books around! Macho Uno's first crop book was much weaker and his numbers are better than Vindication's.

Are people maybe rushing Vindications to the races? 52 of them have run so far - that's only 44% of them. Pletcher's got a $2.4 Million one out of Serena's Tune that hasn't run yet...has Pletcher learned patience, or is the horse already in the Green Monkey dumper? How about the $700,000 that John Oxley paid for Storm Catch? I've never known John Ward to wait on a talented horse...can Storm Catch run 50 yards? He ran once and did nothing.

Do Vindications figure to improve with age? I don't know.

Vindication started at $60,000, his foals have sold VERY well, and yet, he's still at $60,000 in 2008. Why is Sikura gunshy about raising his fee?

But hang in there, Tesio - if you're breeding to sell, maybe you have a gem in that broodie of yours! Who knows?

[Tappiano]

I seem to recall that the consensus was he would be a better sire of three year olds then two year olds. Perhaps it's the fact that he got a few good runners right out of the box that's changed everyone's expectations?

There were three that were discussed in this light, Mineshaft, Empire Maker and Vindication. All three have already had significant threads devoted to them on the various boards.

I think he'll turn out to be a very good sire.

[Rokeby Forever]

I seem to recall that the consensus was he would be a better sire of three year olds then two year olds. Perhaps it's the fact that he got a few good runners right out of the box that's changed everyone's expectations?

Great point, Tappiano. Maybe the market is/was expecting Vindication to be a type of sire that he's not going to be. I've done some thinking and I've now reevaluated him.

Vindication was champion two year old, but he wasn't a fast horse. He beat fast horses in his stakes wins, but none of those races had fast times to suggest that he was a bunnyrabbit type horse. With his distance laden female side, maybe people are expecting too much of Vindication too early.

Seattle Slew was as fast as they come, but his sons haven't been passing on his blazing speed. AP Indys aren't sprinters, and his good sons at stud aren't siring any, either. Slew City Slew isn't a sire of two year olds. His good turf son, Tsunami Slew, wasn't a sire of two year olds. Maybe the market was hoping that Vindication would be different, but there's a chance that he's not.

That said, I'm now waiting to see how the crop develops in 2008. Those that think Vindications will improve with age and distance may very well be right. The problem for Vindication - he got very strong early books hoping that he'd sire early winners. If he doesn't, will breeders be turned off by him?

[winds]

What I'm hoping to see (but I'm not holding my breath, I think I'd end up dying) is the market change to supporting stallions that have better older horses than fast 2 yr olds that can't run a lick as an older horse.

I would love to see that change.

winds

[LB]

That said, I'm now waiting to see how the crop develops in 2008. Those that think Vindications will improve with age and distance may very well be right. The problem for Vindication - he got very strong early books hoping that he'd sire early winners. If he doesn't, will breeders be turned off by him?

No.

(see A.P.Indy)

[Rokeby Forever]

Hi LB. I think AP Indy is "an apple and an orange." When AP Indy initially stood for $50,000 (I believe it was), I don't think the market was looking for early developers from him. After all, he won the BC Classic at 1 1/4 mile and the Belmont Stakes at 1 1/2 mile. I think it's different with Vindication. Also, I don't think the market ever associated Lane's End with early developing horses (with maybe few exceptions). I think at Hill N'Dale, the marketing emphasis is on early developers. Compare the overall stallion rosters of each farm and how stallions are managed.

[Hold Your Peace]

Mineshaft is looking like a major flop.

Everybody loves to use the "He wasn't really expected to get good 2yos" excuse but 90% of the time that's bull. Most sires who succeed show promise right off the bat even if they aren't the type you expect to do a lot with their 2yos.

Mineshaft has seen 39% of his first crop of foals run. If the Mineshaft's were truly late developers you wouldn't see 39% of them already running at two. About 35% of those runners have won but there's no "big" horse among his first crop.

At the July, August, and September yearling sales it was too early to give up on freshman sires like Mineshaft so while his yearling average was lower it wasn't a disaster.

His weanling prices were a disaster though because people could see the writing on the wall by November. Averaged $218,000 last year, averaged $35,000 this year.

A stallion whose foals probably really will be better at three is Empire Maker, but still he's gotten some "big" horses from his first crop (it was late in the season, but better late than never). Empire Maker has only had 25% of his first crop of foals run, and 35% of them have won, but more importantly he has a couple of "big horses" in multiple G.1 winner Country Star and G.2 winner Mushka.

Vindication has had almost 50% of his 2yos run and he himself was a 2yo champ so it's laughable to say that he wasn't expected to do much with his 2yos. About 36% of those runners have won. And Vindication has some 2yo's who look to have a world of ability but they've been sidelined. So I would say the jury is still out on Vindication. For sure I would say he's come up a little short of meeting the very high expectations for him, but if his good ones come back 100% he could still come close to meeting his expectations. We'll have to wait and see.

Among others Harlan's Holiday has lived up to the early love shown for his foals and is meeting or exceeding expectations.

Sky Mesa who was hyped pretty good is looking like another big flop.

[sunshine]

Mineshaft has seen 39% of his first crop of foals run. If the Mineshaft's were truly late developers you wouldn't see 39% of them already running at two. About 35% of those runners have won but there's no "big" horse among his first crop.

From Equidaily.com, in a story out of New Orleans, trainer Neil Howard comments on Mineshaft 2yos: "They've been very nice to train so far," Howard said. "We never expected them to be very precocious, and that has seemed to play out.

"They seem to have a pretty good demeanor. He's stamping some of them with that. But you can tell, you get the impression, the distinct feeling, you'll have to be patient with them and wait for the distances to stretch out."
http://www.nola.com/sports/t-p/horseracing/index.ssf?/base/sports-1/1198390817300920.xml&coll=1&thispage=2

[bdw0617]

let's keep our eye on the ball...these sire's offsprings have been running for about 4 monts now lol

mindshaft will be fine. nothing in his pedigree, or proforamnce that says he won't at the very worst be a middle of the road, 40k type sire once it's all said and done.


IN 06 you would have thought johannesburg was the hottest thing since sliced bread.

Empire maker and vindication to me are the biggest question marks to me. First of all... As great of a mare as toussaud was, he has what...2 other grade 1 winning brothers and neither of them are smashing successes at stud. Country star, his prized 2YO has a very strong female family.

dont' get me started on the tail wagging vidicaiton has been doing.

I am still questioning do either actually improve their mares. of the two I actually like vindication more than empire maker. hsi horses make more starts (so far) and while he doesn't have any huge horses, he doesn't have horses cluttering up the cliaming ranks... they are running in competting in allowence/maiden races.

But I think at the end of the day Mucho Uno and Posse will be the class of the this year 's new sires.

[Rokeby Forever]

On top of Harlan's Holiday, I think Proud Citizen has been a pleasant surprise. Jones and Kelly McDaniel are sitting pretty with those two stallions right now.

[Hold Your Peace]

Here's another vote for Proud Citizen exceeding expectations as well.

Harlan's Holiday had surpisingly strong sales with his first foals so it's nice to see them back that up with the way they've run.