northern afleet----are their any better?

bcassidy · Postby **bcassidy** » Fri Apr 04, 2008 1:00 am

I haven't mentioned Northern Afleet in quite a while but I am still a huge believer in his value. Did anyone else notice this weeks general sire list? He is now 32nd on the general sire list with his highest earner having amassed only 84k. What is most significant about these stats is that Northern Afleet is still posting these numbers off of his florida covered broodmares, his earliest Kentucky bred foal crop are just two year olds this year and most have yet to run. I don't believe there is a better stallion value anywhere in the world and I still can't believe you can breed to Northern Afleet for 10k or less this year. The future looks outstanding for this stallion and for my money, I couldn't find a better stallion that gives you an equal shot at producing a great race horse and/or a solid racehorse for the "breed to race" mating. I would appreciate hearing any points of view on this stallion but Is there a better value for 10k?

Monmouth Matt · Postby **Monmouth Matt** » Fri Apr 04, 2008 7:04 am

Agree completely on NA. Also think Montbrook is worth every bit of 10K after his recent reduction.

pokeyman · Postby **pokeyman** » Fri Apr 04, 2008 1:55 pm

Disagree completely and 100% with you guys.

Yes...much better value elsewhere. To name a few:

Concerto

Slew City Slew

Pioneering

Northern Afleet has a paltry 55% starters and 42% winners- below the National average. He is averaging only 3 % stakes winners.

Plus, his numbers are with a CI Index (book of mares) that are better than the above stallions mentioned.

Also disagree about Montbrook. He is priced to high. % of winners could be much higher with his quality book of mares (as indicted by his CI) and he no longer is improving his mares. Should be half his current fee and that might be a better value- mostly due to his outcross pedigree.

bcassidy · Postby **bcassidy** » Fri Apr 04, 2008 3:16 pm

pokeyman---there is certainly nothing wrong with the 3 stallions you mention but Northern Afleets CL has gone up only since moving to Ky (and his first KY foal crop has yet to race) while he still has the highest AEI of any stallion you mention.
I also have different numbers than you posted for NA, I have his runners listed at 70%, winners at 53% and stakes winners at 4%.

We can agree to disagree about his value right now but let's revisit this discussion after his first ky crop completes it's 3 yr old racing year.... I am very confident that he represents great value at 10k...

BTW how do you explain Northern Afleet ranked on the 2008 sire list at number 30 while none of the 3 stallions you mention even making the list.

pokeyman · Postby **pokeyman** » Fri Apr 04, 2008 3:22 pm

Yes, agree to disagree!! I, for one, hope you proove to be right (but doubt you will be (*friendly smirk)! However, we shall see!!

AscotStud · Postby **AscotStud** » Fri Apr 04, 2008 5:06 pm

I love him and still might send something to him this year. By the time the foal is a yearling he will have 200 3 and 4 year olds running from his KY book of mares. If he brings them up at all like he did with his FL mares look out he will be damn hot by then. They are also offereing $5,000 no guarenteed (he is ultra fertile, so maybe worth the risk with the right mare), $7,500 stands and nurses or $10,000 proceeds from sale.

I was thinking I was the only one who loved him this year.

AscotStud · Postby **AscotStud** » Fri Apr 04, 2008 5:10 pm

I love him and still might send something to him this year. By the time the foal is a yearling he will have 200 3 and 4 year olds running from his KY book of mares. If he brings them up at all like he did with his FL mares look out he will be damn hot by then. They are also offereing $5,000 no guarenteed (he is ultra fertile, so maybe worth the risk with the right mare), $7,500 stands and nurses or $10,000 proceeds from sale.

I was thinking I was the only one who loved him this year.

London · Postby **London** » Sat Apr 05, 2008 8:18 am

I just bought a With Approval mare who is going to be booked to him on Monday. It will give me 5x5 Nangela since they're both from the same family. Going back generations, it seems the family works well when inbreeding to itself. Hopefully that will stay true with this mare.

Hold Your Peace · Postby **Hold Your Peace** » Sat Apr 05, 2008 12:25 pm

With six crops and 348 foals (3 and up) to race he's only gotten three graded stakes winners and no graded stakes winners in 2006, 2007, or 2008. So I don't know about Northern Afleet as a source of truly "top" horses. And his Kentucky bred yearlings didn't really set the world on fire in the sales ring (median price of around 23,000) last year so I'll wait and see.

But hey, if you like him, more power to you and him.

bcassidy · Postby **bcassidy** » Sat Apr 05, 2008 4:43 pm

hold your peace and pokeyman-----did you see the Grade 1 Carter today at Aqueduct? One of Northern Afleet's foals, I think his name is Executive Afleet, just missed winning the whole thing at odds of 13-1. His foals just keep firing and I can't wait to see what his Ky crop will do. It has to be a whole lot better than his FL crops.......
HE just missed having another Grade 1 winner today and it will be fun to watch his foals race this year and next. I am sending 3 mares to him this year..... So I am putting my money where my mouth is.... I hope others on this forum do the same. He is awesome value at 5, 7.5 and 10k respectively....

pokeyman · Postby **pokeyman** » Sat Apr 05, 2008 5:51 pm

bcassidy wrote:hold your peace and pokeyman-----did you see the Grade 1 Carter today at Aqueduct? One of Northern Afleet's foals, I think his name is Executive Afleet, just missed winning the whole thing at odds of 13-1. His foals just keep firing and I can't wait to see what his Ky crop will do. It has to be a whole lot better than his FL crops.......
HE just missed having another Grade 1 winner today and it will be fun to watch his foals race this year and next. I am sending 3 mares to him this year..... So I am putting my money where my mouth is.... I hope others on this forum do the same. He is awesome value at 5, 7.5 and 10k respectively....

Well, good luck to you!! Hope for your sake that you are correct!!! :twisted:

Monmouth Matt · Postby **Monmouth Matt** » Mon Apr 07, 2008 1:58 pm

pokeyman wrote:Disagree completely and 100% with you guys.

Yes...much better value elsewhere. To name a few:

Concerto

Slew City Slew

Pioneering

Northern Afleet has a paltry 55% starters and 42% winners- below the National average. He is averaging only 3 % stakes winners.

Plus, his numbers are with a CI Index (book of mares) that are better than the above stallions mentioned.

Also disagree about Montbrook. He is priced to high. % of winners could be much higher with his quality book of mares (as indicted by his CI) and he no longer is improving his mares. Should be half his current fee and that might be a better value- mostly due to his outcross pedigree.

I'm a big Concerto and SCS fan as well, but I think you sell Montbrook a little short. Like Concerto, his progeny primarily have to duke it out for low FL. purses yet his starters still avg. $60k+ and $4k a race. You get the added bonus of having a solid history at auction......yearlings avg. 30k....2 yr olds avg $50k.....much higher then Concerto/SCS. He gives you alot of flexibility (race/sell) and can get the occassional big horse....... I think both he and Concerto are nice values at $10/7.5 in the Fl. market.

Monmouth Matt · Postby **Monmouth Matt** » Mon Apr 07, 2008 2:13 pm

Pokey..... Your not including the 130 - 2 yr. olds tha N. Afleet has in your 3% stakes figure are you? That's a Bloodhorse formula that I always find very misleading. If you back out his 2 yr. olds that obviously haven't hit the track yet (racing age by Bloodhorse) , his stakes % increases quite a bit. His book also was a little shaky prior to Afleet Alex, so I'd think his numbers may be a bit understated.

pokeyman · Postby **pokeyman** » Tue Apr 08, 2008 7:53 am

Monmouth Matt wrote:
pokeyman wrote:Disagree completely and 100% with you guys.

Yes...much better value elsewhere. To name a few:

Concerto

Slew City Slew

Pioneering

Northern Afleet has a paltry 55% starters and 42% winners- below the National average. He is averaging only 3 % stakes winners.

Plus, his numbers are with a CI Index (book of mares) that are better than the above stallions mentioned.

Also disagree about Montbrook. He is priced to high. % of winners could be much higher with his quality book of mares (as indicted by his CI) and he no longer is improving his mares. Should be half his current fee and that might be a better value- mostly due to his outcross pedigree.

I'm a big Concerto and SCS fan as well, but I think you sell Montbrook a little short. Like Concerto, his progeny primarily have to duke it out for low FL. purses yet his starters still avg. $60k+ and $4k a race. You get the added bonus of having a solid history at auction......yearlings avg. 30k....2 yr olds avg $50k.....much higher then Concerto/SCS. He gives you alot of flexibility (race/sell) and can get the occassional big horse....... I think both he and Concerto are nice values at $10/7.5 in the Fl. market.

Yeah, but look at the CI Concerto started with and has now versus Montbrook. I have always been high on Montbrook but am dismayed by his numbers dropping every year. To me, a great value is a stallion that puts up great numbers in a Regional market...think American Chance, a young Runaway Groom and Saint Ballado. In FL, I think Concordes Tune is on his way..... Let's face it, Most of us don't have blue hen mares and need an improvement stallion.

Same thing with Northern Afleet, it's what he does with a "shaky book" of mares that will either impress me or not. So, of course, you would expect his KY crop to be better but the question is...do YOU have a KY quality mare?? If so, than go for it!! My mares are very good (Open MSW/Allowance winners at Mountaineer/Hollywood Park/Finger Lakes) but you don't see them producing stakes horses at Saratoga!!

Thus, I rely on only using proven "value" stallions.

You could also use that formula of stakes horses with any stallion to improve his numbers. I go by foals of racing age and numbers are numbers. They are what they are!

Go For Gin and Our Emblem had similar numbers and how did that work out for them!! Hahaha Just kidding!!

I hope you are right as the world needs more good value race (not commercial) stallions!!

bcassidy · Postby **bcassidy** » Wed Apr 09, 2008 10:30 am

Pokeyman---I agree with your comments about "improving mares" and "race value" stallions but how do you explain Northern Afleet making it into the top 30 of the general sires list and all three of the stallions you mention not making it into the top 100 of the general sires list. If any of the three you think are better value than Northern Afleet shouldn't at least one of them have made the top 100? if not---- then how would you explain that?
Additionally, if you look at the largest earner for each stallion listed above Northern Afleet on the general sires list, many wouldn't be listed above Northern afleet except for a single very large earner that really skewed their stats. Look at Lucky Lionel or Honour and Glory as an example of this point. Would you breed to either of these stallions
Because of the data from my own private system and to a lesser degree the data illustrated on the general sires list--- I still don't see how anyone wouldn't consider Northern Afleet a fantastic value at 10k.